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Thursday, May 07, 2009

Even More on Stress Tests

by Calculated Risk on 5/07/2009 11:00:00 PM

Earlier I pointed out that some of the numbers seemed puzzling.

Peter Eavis at the WSJ has a similar reaction, but uses a different example: U.S. Banks' Not-So-Stressful Test

The government's 13.8% worst-case loss-rate for second-lien mortgages seems fair. But it is a stretch to think Wells Fargo, with its large home-equity book focused on stressed housing markets, will have a lower-than-sector loss rate of 13.2%.
That doesn't make sense.

And on commercial real estate:
The government may have been too optimistic in positing an 8.5% commercial-real-estate loss rate. This sector is just starting to fall apart, and defaults may move sharply higher as borrowers struggle to refinance loans.
Unfortunately the Fed grouped Construction & Development loans (C&D) in with other CRE loans. The losses on C&D at loans are rising sharply, and it would have been easier to analyze if the Fed had released the data by each separate CRE category.