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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Philly Fed November State Coincident Indicators

by Calculated Risk on 12/23/2008 02:48:00 PM

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for September.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released coincident indexes for all 50 states for November 2008. The indexes increased in eight states for the month, decreased in 37, and were unchanged in the remaining five (a one-month diffusion index of -58). For the past three months, the indexes increased in 11 states, decreased in 38, and remained unchanged only in Tennessee (a three-month diffusion index of -54).
Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Most states are in recession, although a portion of the central U.S. is still growing (from Texas up to Wymong). This might change with falling oil prices.

This is what a recession looks like based on the Philly Fed states indexes.

Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThis is a graph of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity.

Note: the Philly Fed calls some states unchanged with minor changes.

Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since late last year based on this indicator.