Thursday, November 27, 2008

Everything you wanted to know about China ...

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2008 11:35:00 AM

Brad Setser writes: If you only read one thing on China this fall ...

Make sure it is the latest World Bank China Quarterly.

David Dollar, Louis Kuijs and their colleagues have outdone themselves – and in the process provided a clear assessment of the sources of China’s current slowdown and the risks that lie ahead. I won’t try to summarize the entire report. Read it. The whole thing. No summary can do it justice.
Brad does highlight a few keys points, including this:
The last thing anyone needs to worry about is fall in Chinese demand for US treasuries.
The World Bank forecasts that China’s current account surplus will RISE not fall in 2009, going from an estimated $385 billion to $425 billion. How is that possible if real imports are forecast to grow faster than real exports? Easy – the terms of trade moved in China’s favor. The price of the raw materials China imports will fall faster than the value of China’s exports. China’s oil and iron bill will fall dramatically.
Something to think about while eating your turkey!