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Thursday, October 02, 2008

Weekly Unemployment Claims Rise to 497,000

by Calculated Risk on 10/02/2008 09:11:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending Sept. 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 497,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 496,000. It is estimated that the effects of Hurricane Gustav in Louisiana and the effects of Hurricane Ike in Texas added approximately 45,000 claims to the total. The 4-week moving average was 474,000, an increase of 11,500 from the previous week's unrevised average of 462,500.
Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims. The four week moving average is at 474,000.

Some of the jump in unemployment claims is a result of the hurricanes and should be temporary, but weekly unemployment claims continues to show significant weaknesses in the labor market and real economy.

Also on employment: in a research note last night, Goldman forecast the BLS report tomorrow will show "a loss of 150,000 payroll jobs" and a further increase in the unemployment rate. Also note that the September employment report will include the initial annual benchmark revisions (to be released in February) and this is expected to show a fairly large downward revision in employment.