Saturday, March 08, 2008

End to the Mediocre Times

by Calculated Risk on 3/08/2008 12:11:00 AM

From David Leonhardt at the NY Times: End to the Good Times (Such as They Were) On household income:

The median household earned $48,201 in 2006, down from $49,244 in 1999, according to the Census Bureau. It now looks as if a full decade may pass before most Americans receive a raise.
On a recession call from NBER:
The seven economists who sit on the bureau’s recession-dating committee ... said Friday that it remained too early to know.
...
The committee did not announce the end of the last recession ... until more than a year-and a half later. ... any announcement about the start of a new recession was unlikely before the last few months of 2008 at the earliest.
So we probably won't have the official recession call until late this year.

For those with five minutes, Leonhardt does a nice job of discussing the economic problems in this podcast. I agree with his conclusion: House prices must fall.