Tuesday, April 24, 2007

Home Sales: Actual vs. Forecast

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2007 12:46:00 PM

Here are the actual cumulative existing home sales vs. three annual forecasts for 2007 (NAR's Lereah, Fannie Mae's Berson, and me).

Click on graph for larger image.

To reach the NAR forecast (revised downward on April 11 to 6.34 million units), sales will have to be at 2006 levels for the remainder of the year. Based on the coming impact from tighter lending standards, we can probably say the recent NAR forecast is "no longer operative".

My forecast was for sales to be between 5.6 and 5.8 million units (shown as 5.7 million). Right now I think the risks are to the downside for my forecast. The next few months should tell us if Berson and I were too optimistic.