by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2011 07:29:00 PM

The next round of Irish bank stress test results are due on March 31st. Meanwhile the ECB is seeking a new liquidity facility and Ireland is talking haircuts for senior bondholders ...

• From Bloomberg: Ireland Seeks to Share Bank-Loss Burdens With Bond Holders, Noonan Says

Ireland wants to share bank losses with senior bondholders as part of a “final solution” for the country’s debt-laden financial system, Agriculture Minister Simon Coveney said.

Finance Minister Michael Noonan will seek agreement from European authorities to share losses with bond holders after stress-test results on March 31 determine how much extra capital the banks need, Coveney said.

• From the Financial Times: Ireland seeks ECB deal to secure banks
• From the WSJ: ECB Seeks New Liquidity Plan for Irish Banks

the Sunday Business Post newspaper reported over the weekend that the tests will expose a capital shortfall of €18 billion to €23 billion. That is more than the €10 billion earmarked by the European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank in Ireland's November bailout deal, but less than the €35 billion many analysts had estimated the banks would require.

Yesterday and Today:
• Here is the Summary for Week ending March 25th.
• Lawler: Census 2010 and Excess Vacant Housing Units
• Schedule for Week of March 27th

Weekly Schedule

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2011 02:46:00 PM

• From Kyodo News: Woes deepen over radioactive water at nuke plant, sea contamination

Japan on Sunday faced an increasing challenge of removing highly radioactive water found inside buildings near some troubled nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi plant, with the radiation level of the surface of the pool in the basement of the No. 2 reactor's turbine building found to be more than 1,000 millisieverts per hour.

... efforts to restore power and enhance cooling efficiency at the crisis-hit nuclear power plant is showing slow progress partly due to the radioactive pools of water found at the Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 units.

Workers there are planning to turn on the lights in the control room of the No. 4 reactor, while also trying to inject freshwater into tanks storing spent nuclear fuel at the plant's Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 4 reactors to prevent crystallized salt from seawater already injected from hampering the smooth circulation of water and thus diminishing the cooling effect.

• From the LA Times: Officials retract reports of extremely high radiation at Fukushima plant
• From the NY Times: Higher Levels of Radiation Found at Japan Reactor Plant

Yesterday and Today:
• Here is the Summary for Week ending March 25th.
• Lawler: Census 2010 and Excess Vacant Housing Units
• Schedule for Week of March 27th

by Calculated Risk on 3/27/2011 09:27:00 AM

Yesterday:
• Here is the Summary for Week ending March 25th.
• Lawler: Census 2010 and Excess Vacant Housing Units

The key report for this week will be the March employment report to be released on Friday, April 1st.

Other key reports include the February Personal Income and Outlays report on Monday, the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the ISM manufacturing index on Friday, and vehicle sales also on Friday.

----- Monday, March 28th -----
8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for February. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income and a 0.6% increase in personal spending.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - PCE adjusted for inflation - decreased 0.1 percent in January.

Using the February data we can obtain an early estimate for Q1 real PCE growth (annualized) using the two-month method (usually pretty close).

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales for February. The consensus is for pending sales home sales to be flat (a leading indicator for existing home sales).

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for March. The Texas production index increased last month to 9.7 (from 0.2 in January).

----- Tuesday, March 29th -----
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January.

This graph shows the seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices through December (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

Prices are falling again, and the Composite 20 index will probably be close to a new post-bubble low in January. The consensus is for prices to decline about 0.4% in January; the seventh straight month of house price declines.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March. The consensus is for a decrease to 65.0 from 70.4 last month due to world events and higher gasoline prices.

----- Wednesday, March 30th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. This index has been very weak over the last couple months suggesting weak home sales through the first few months of 2011.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for March. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for +205,000 payroll jobs in March, down slightly from the 217,000 reported in February.

----- Thursday, March 31st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 380,000 from 382,000 last week.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for March. The consensus is for a slight decrease to a still very strong 70.0 (down from 71.2 in March).

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders for February. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in orders.

11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for March. The index was at an all time high 19 in February.

----- Friday, April 1st -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for March.

The consensus is for an increase of 195,000 non-farm payroll jobs in March, after an increase of 192,000 in February (that was partially "payback" for the weak January report).

This graph shows the net payroll jobs per month (excluding temporary Census jobs) since the beginning of the recession. The estimate for March is in blue.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.9% in March.

The second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions - aligned at maximum job losses.

This shows the severe job losses during the recent recession - there are currently 7.5 million fewer jobs in the U.S. than when the recession started.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for March. The consensus is for a slight decrease to 61.2 from the strong 61.4 in February. All of the regional manufacturing surveys showed continued expansion in March.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for February. The consensus is for no change in construction spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for March. Light vehicle sales are expected to decrease to 13.2 million (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate), from 13.4 million in February.

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the February sales rate.

Edmunds is forecasting: "Edmunds.com analysts predict that March’s Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) will be 13.07 million, down from 13.38 in February 2011."

Best wishes to All!

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2011 10:24:00 PM

Earlier:
• Here is the Summary for Week ending March 25th.
• Lawler: Census 2010 and Excess Vacant Housing Units

LPS Applied Analytics recently released their February Mortgage Performance data. From LPS:

•Delinquency rates resumed their decline after an increase in January and foreclosure inventories remain stable, slightly below historic highs.
• Delinquencies continue to improve as new problem loan rates decline and cure rates increase.
• Foreclosure start declines and foreclosure suspensions are reducing the upward pressure on inventories caused by foreclosure sale moratoria.
• An enormous backlog of foreclosures still exists with overhang at every level:

–There are three times the number of loans deteriorating greater than 90+ days delinquent as compared to foreclosure starts.
–There are also three times the number foreclosure starts vs. foreclosure sales.
–Foreclosure inventory levels are over 30 times monthly foreclosure sale volume.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the percent delinquent, percent in foreclosure, and total non-current mortgages.

The percent in the foreclosure process has been trending up because of the foreclosure moratoriums.

According to LPS, 8.80% of mortgages are delinquent (down from 8.90% in January), and another 4.15% are in the foreclosure process (about the same as 4.16% in January) for a total of 12.96%. It breaks down as:

• 2.49 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 2.16 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.2 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.86 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure.

The second graph shows the break down of serious deliquencies.

The number of seriously delinquent loans has stopped decreasing - mostly because the number of seriously delinquent loans that have not made a payment in over a year continues to increase.

Note: I've seen some people include these almost 7 million delinquent loans as "shadow inventory". This is not correct because 1) some of these loans will cure, and 2) some of these homes are already listed for sale (so they are included in the visible inventory).

by Calculated Risk on 3/26/2011 05:54:00 PM

CR Note: This long and detailed note on the 2010 Census data is from economist Tom Lawler. Here is a spreadsheet for the 50 states (and D.C.) including the 2000 and 1990 Census data.

This starts with a brief excerpt (click read more for the full post). For those not interested in why some data drives demographers to drink, here is the Summary for Week ending March 25th.

Census 2010: Households, Housing Stock, and Vacant Housing Units: Understanding Why Demographers Drink by Tom Lawler

Census has now released the final Census 2010 counts for state and local population and housing units – occupied and vacant. Here are some national totals, as well as a comparison to the “official” Census 2000 counts – which are “known” to be off, but by uncertain amounts.

	Census 2010	Census 2000	Change	% Change
Population	308,745,538	281,421,906	27,323,632	9.7%
Total Housing Units	131,704,730	115,904,641	15,800,089	13.6%
Occupied	116,716,292	105,480,101	11,236,191	10.7%
Vacant	14,988,438	10,424,540	4,563,898	43.8%
Gross Vacancy Rate	11.38%	8.99%	2.39%

For those who follow housing production, one of the “striking” things about the Census 2010 vs. the Census 2000 data is the apparent growth in the housing stock – 15.8 million units.

Read more »