Thursday, July 28, 2016

Zillow Forecast: Expect slightly slower YoY Growth in June for the Case-Shiller Indexes

by Bill McBride on 7/28/2016 03:51:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for May were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: June Case-Shiller Forecast: Expect a Third Straight Monthly Decline in 10- and 20-City Indices

May Case-Shiller data showed modestly slower growth largely in line with expectations, with seasonally adjusted home prices falling for two months in a row on the 10- and 20-city indices – a rare occurrence since the recovery began in earnest. Looking ahead, Zillow’s June Case-Shiller forecast calls for more of the same, with seasonally adjusted prices in the 10- and 20-city indices set to fall for a third straight month, while annual growth stays largely flat.

The June Case-Shiller National Index is expected to grow 5.1 percent year-over-year and 0.2 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted). We expect the 10-City Index to grow 4.1 percent year-over-year and to fall 0.2 percent (SA) from May. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between June 2015 and June 2016, and fall 0.1 percent (SA) from May.

Zillow’s June Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s May Case-Shiller data release and the June 2016 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI). The June Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, August 30.
The year-over-year change for the 20-city index will probably be slightly lower in the June report than in the May report.  The change for the National index will probably be about the same.

Zillow forecast for Case-Shiller