Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 5.0% year-over-year in May

by Bill McBride on 7/26/2016 09:13:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May ("May" is a 3 month average of March, April and May prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.

From S&P: Home Price Increases Ease in May According to the S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Indices

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.0% annual gain in May, the same as the prior month. The 10-City Composite posted a 4.4% annual increase, down from 4.7% the previous month. The 20-City Composite reported a year-over-year gain of 5.2%, down from 5.4% in April.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 1.2% in May. The 10-City Composite recorded a 0.8% month-over-month increase, while the 20-City Composite posted a 0.9% increase in May. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over month increase, the 10-City Composite posted a 0.2% decrease, and the 20-City Composite reported a 0.1% month-over-month decrease. After seasonal adjustment, 12 cities saw prices rise, two cities were unchanged, and six cities experienced negative monthly prices changes.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 10.9% from the peak, and down 0.2% in May (SA).

The Composite 20 index is off 9.0% from the peak, and down 0.1% (SA) in May.

The National index is off 2.8% from the peak, and up 0.2% (SA) in May.  The National index is up 31.3% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 4.4% compared to May 2015.

The Composite 20 SA is up 5.2% year-over-year..

The National index SA is up 5.0% year-over-year.

Note: According to the data, prices increased in 12 of 20 cities month-over-month seasonally adjusted.

I'll have more later.