Friday, November 27, 2015

Zillow Forecast: Expect October Year-over-year Change for Case-Shiller Index Similar to September

by Bill McBride on 11/27/2015 04:05:00 PM

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released on Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Case-Shiller Forecast Calls for Similar Annual, Monthly Gains in October

The September S&P Case-Shiller (SPCS) data published [on Tuesday] showed home prices rising on a seasonally-adjusted monthly basis, with month-over-month rises of 0.6 percent for both the 10- and 20- city indices and 0.8 percent for the national index.

The October Case-Shiller forecast calls for similar monthly increases of 0.4 percent for the 10- and 20-City Indices in October from from September (seasonally adjusted). The national index is expected to gain another 0.8 percent in October from September. We expect the 10-City Index to grow 5 percent year-over-year, and the 20-City Index to grow 5.4 percent over the same period. The national Index looks set to gain 5.1 percent since October 2014.

All SPCS forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today’s September SPCS data release and the October 2015 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released November 20. The SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for October will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 29.
This suggests the year-over-year change for the October Case-Shiller National index will be about the same as in the September report.

Zillow Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
September
Actual YoY
5.0%5.0%5.5%5.5%4.9%4.9%
October
Forecast
YoY
5.0%5.0%5.4%5.4%5.1%5.1%
September
Forecast
MoM
-0.2%0.4%-0.1%0.4%0.0%0.8%