by Bill McBride on 11/24/2015 09:28:00 AM
Tuesday, November 24, 2015
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for September ("September" is a 3 month average of July, August and September prices).
This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.
Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs.
From S&P: Widespread Gains in Home Prices for August According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.9% annual increase in September 2015 versus a 4.6% increase in August 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 5.0% in the year to September compared to 4.7% previously. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.5% versus 5.1% in the year to September. After adjusting for the CPI core rate of inflation, the S&P/Case Shiller National Home Price Index rose 3% from September 2014 to September 2015.Click on graph for larger image.
Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.2% month-over-month in September. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite both reported gains of 0.2% month-over-month in September. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.8%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both increased 0.6% month-over-month. Fifteen of 20 cities reported increases in September before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, 19 cities increased for the month.
“Home prices and housing continue to show strength with home prices rising at more than double the rate of inflation,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 14.3% from the peak, and up 0.6% in September (SA).
The Composite 20 index is off 13.0% from the peak, and up 0.6% (SA) in September.
The National index is off 6.0% from the peak, and up 0.8% (SA) in September. The National index is up 27.0% from the post-bubble low set in December 2011 (SA).
The second graph shows the Year over year change in all three indices.
The Composite 10 SA is up 5.1% compared to September 2014.
The Composite 20 SA is up 5.5% year-over-year..
The National index SA is up 4.9% year-over-year.
Prices increased (SA) in 20 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in September seasonally adjusted. (Prices increased in 15 of the 20 cities NSA) Prices in Las Vegas are off 39.2% from the peak, and prices in Denver and Dallas are at new highs (SA).
The last graph shows the bubble peak, the post bubble minimum, and current nominal prices relative to January 2000 prices for all the Case-Shiller cities in nominal terms.
As an example, at the peak, prices in Phoenix were 127% above the January 2000 level. Then prices in Phoenix fell slightly below the January 2000 level, and are now up 54% above January 2000 (54% nominal gain in almost 16 years).
These are nominal prices, and real prices (adjusted for inflation) are up about 40% since January 2000 - so the increase in Phoenix from January 2000 until now is about 14% above the change in overall prices due to inflation.
Three cities - Denver (up 70% since Jan 2000) and Dallas (up 52% since Jan 2000) and Boston (up 80% since Jan 2000) - are above the bubble highs (a few other Case-Shiller Comp 20 city are close - Charlotte, San Francisco, Portland and Seattle). Detroit prices are barely above the January 2000 level.
I'll have more on house prices later.