Sunday, November 01, 2015

Monday: ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending

by Bill McBride on 11/01/2015 08:49:00 PM

From the WSJ: Retailers Work Harder to Lure Holiday Employees

Retailers are facing a shrinking pool of workers as they staff up for the holidays, prompting some to offer more hours or higher pay to make sure they have enough cashiers or salespeople for the Christmas crush.
Seasonal hiring in October usually gives a good indication for the holiday season. Something to watch in the employment report on Friday.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of November 1, 2015

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, the ISM Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.0, down from 50.2 in September. The employment index was at 50.5%, and the new orders index was at 50.1%.

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in construction spending.

• At 2:00 PM, the October 2015 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank Lending Practices from the Federal Reserve.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures are down 6 and DOW futures are dwon 36 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $46.21 per barrel and Brent at $49.36 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $81, and Brent was at $85 - so prices are down about 40% year-over-year (It was a year ago that prices were falling sharply).

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.19 per gallon (down about $0.80 per gallon from a year ago).