Sunday, November 29, 2015

Monday: Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 11/29/2015 07:18:00 PM

From the WSJ: Divergent Paths for U.S., European Central Banks

This break in rate policy, particularly between the Fed and the European Central Bank, could strengthen the dollar even further against the euro, crimping U.S. exporters while giving a leg up to European ones.

The divergent paths highlight how much more vigorous the U.S. recovery has been, particularly on the hiring front, a trend economists expect to see continue when the U.S. job numbers for November come out Friday.
US policymakers responded to the financial crisis quicker, and with better policy (although the US made a premature pivot to austerity on fiscal policy, fiscal policy in Europe was much worse).

Monday:
• At 9:45 AM ET, the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. The consensus is for a reading of 54.0, down from 56.2 in October.

• At 10:00 AM, Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.

Weekend:
Schedule for Week of November 29, 2015

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: currently S&P futures and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up slightly over the last week with WTI futures at $41.71 per barrel and Brent at $44.86 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $66, and Brent was at $71 - so prices are down about 35% year-over-year (It was a year ago that prices were falling sharply).

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.04 per gallon (down about $0.75 per gallon from a year ago).