Sunday, November 29, 2015

Hotels: Finishing Year Strong

by Bill McBride on 11/29/2015 10:56:00 AM

Looking back at historical data, the only time hotel occupancy was this strong in November was in 2005 - and the high occupancy rate in the Fall of 2005 was the result of people displaced from their homes due to the damage from Hurricane Katrina.

Here is an update on hotel occupancy from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 21 November

The U.S. hotel industry recorded positive results in the three key performance measurements during the week of 15-21 November 2015, according to data from STR, Inc.

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy increased 3.7% to 63.1%. Average daily rate for the week was up 3.8% to US$116.26. Revenue per available room increased 7.6% to finish the week at US$73.33.
emphasis added
The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.  Hotels are now in the Fall business travel season.

Hotel Occupancy RateThe red line is for 2015, dashed orange is 2014, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 - the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels.  Purple is for 2000.

I added 2001 (yellow) to show the impact of 9/11/2001 on hotel occupancy.  Occupancy was already down in 2001 compared to 2000 due to the recession, and then really collapsed following 9/11.

For 2015, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is above 2000 (best year for hotels), and 2015 will be the best year ever for hotels.

Occupancy Rate Year-to-date:
1) 2015 67.4%
2) 2000 66.5%
3) 2014 66.2%

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com