Wednesday, December 19, 2012

Lawler: Updated Outlook on November Existing Home Sales: Expect 5.1 Million (SAAR)

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2012 04:48:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler:

"Based on realtor/MLS reports released through today, I have increased my estimate of November existing home sales (as measured by the National Association of Realtors) to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.10 million, up 6.5% from October’s pace, and up 15.9% from last November’s pace."

CR Note: The NAR will report November existing home sales tomorrow, Thursday, Dec 20th. The consensus is the NAR will report sales of 4.85 million.

Based on Lawler's estimates, the NAR will report inventory around 2.05 million units for November, and months-of-supply might be under 5 months. This would be the lowest level of inventory in over 10 years, and the lowest months-of-supply since 2005.

Tom Lawler also sent me some distressed sales data for a few more cities in November. 

One of the key changes this year has been the dramatic decline in distressed sales.  As the table shows, distressed sales are down everywhere (Chicago is close), foreclosure sales are down everywhere, and short sales are mixed (there is a clear shift from foreclosures to short sales).

The decline in the percent distressed means conventional sales are up even more than total sales.

Short Sales ShareForeclosure Sales ShareTotal "Distressed" Share
12-Nov11-Nov12-Nov11-Nov12-Nov11-Nov
Las Vegas41.2%26.8%10.7%46.0%51.9%72.8%
Reno41.0%36.0%9.0%35.0%50.0%71.0%
Phoenix23.2%29.6%12.9%29.8%36.1%59.4%
Sacramento36.1%29.8%11.5%34.3%47.6%64.1%
Minneapolis11.2%13.8%24.6%34.8%35.8%48.7%
Mid-Atlantic (MRIS)11.9%13.7%8.7%14.2%20.6%27.9%
Orlando29.0%37.2%20.9%22.8%49.9%60.0%
California (DQ)*26.3%24.9%16.9%32.9%43.2%57.8%
So. California (DQ)*26.6%25.4%15.3%31.6%41.9%57.0%
Hampton Roads VA    28.3%33.0%
Northeast Florida    42.2%48.0%
Chicago    43.0%43.1%
Charlotte    13.3%18.3%
Atlanta  30.0%46.0%  
Houston  15.0%20.2%  
Spokane  9.2%22.4%  
Memphis*  24.3%31.3%  
Birmingham AL  26.5%34.5%  
Metro Detroit  33.6%38.7% 
*share of existing home sales, based on property records

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