by Bill McBride on 11/22/2012 11:58:00 AM
Thursday, November 22, 2012
Note: The Case-Shiller report to be released next Tuesday is for September (really an average of prices in July, August and September).
Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3% Increase from One Year Ago
On Tuesday November 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.4 percent for the 20-City Composite, as well as for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are ... are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the September Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.
CR Note: It looks like house prices will be up about 5% this year based on the Case-Shiller indexes.
|Case Shiller Composite 10||Case Shiller Composite 20|
|Zillow Sept Forecast||YoY||2.3%||2.3%||3.0%||3.0%|
|Current Post Bubble Low||146.5||149.38||134.08||136.65|
|Date of Post Bubble Low||Mar-12||Jan-12||Mar-12||Feb-12|
|Above Post Bubble Low||8.6%||4.4%||9.1%||4.9%|
|1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts|
Posted by Bill McBride on 11/22/2012 11:58:00 AM