Thursday, November 22, 2012

Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller House Price index to increase 3.0% Year-over-year for September

by Bill McBride on 11/22/2012 11:58:00 AM

Note: The Case-Shiller report to be released next Tuesday is for September (really an average of prices in July, August and September).

Zillow Forecast: September Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3% Increase from One Year Ago

On Tuesday November 27th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will be up by 3 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will be up 2.3 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.4 percent for the 20-City Composite, as well as for the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA). All forecasts are ... are based on a model incorporating the previous data points of the Case-Shiller series, the September Zillow Home Value Index data and national foreclosure re-sales.
Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close.

CR Note: It looks like house prices will be up about 5% this year based on the Case-Shiller indexes.

Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
Sept 2011155.61152.55141.96139.12
Case-Shiller
(last month)
Aug 2012158.62155.35145.87142.7
Zillow Sept ForecastYoY2.3%2.3%3.0%3.0%
MoM0.3%0.4%0.3%0.4%
Zillow Forecasts1159.1156146.3143.3
Current Post Bubble Low146.5149.38134.08136.65
Date of Post Bubble LowMar-12Jan-12Mar-12Feb-12
Above Post Bubble Low8.6%4.4%9.1%4.9%
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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