Monday, July 16, 2012

Retail Sales decline 0.5% in June

by Bill McBride on 7/16/2012 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.5% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8% from June 2011. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.5 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2011.
Ex-autos, retail sales declined 0.4% in June.

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image.

Sales for May were unchanged at a 0.2% decrease.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 21.2% from the bottom, and now 6.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)

Retail Sales since 2006The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 18.1% from the bottom, and now 6.1% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis (3.8% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.3% in June.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesThis was below the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.2% increase in June, and below the consensus for a 0.1% increase ex-auto.

Some of the decrease was related to the decline in gasoline prices, but this is another indicator of a weak June.
All current retail sales graphs