by Bill McBride on 7/16/2012 08:30:00 AM
Monday, July 16, 2012
On a monthly basis, retail sales were down 0.5% from May to June (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.8% from June 2011. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $401.5 billion, a decrease of 0.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, but 3.8 percent (±0.7%) above June 2011.Ex-autos, retail sales declined 0.4% in June.
Click on graph for larger image.
Sales for May were unchanged at a 0.2% decrease.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 21.2% from the bottom, and now 6.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The second graph shows the same data, but just since 2006 (to show the recent changes). Excluding gasoline, retail sales are up 18.1% from the bottom, and now 6.1% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted).
The third graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis (3.8% for all retail sales). Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.3% in June.
This was below the consensus forecast for retail sales of a 0.2% increase in June, and below the consensus for a 0.1% increase ex-auto.
Some of the decrease was related to the decline in gasoline prices, but this is another indicator of a weak June.
Posted by Bill McBride on 7/16/2012 08:30:00 AM