by Bill McBride on 4/23/2012 11:08:00 AM
Monday, April 23, 2012
In addition to Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, and LPS, I'm also watching the FNC, Zillow and RadarLogic indexes.
From FNC: February Residential Property Values Down 0.8%
FNC’s latest Residential Price Index™ (RPI), released Friday, indicates that U.S. residential property values continued to show signs of persistent weakening - ending in February with a seventh consecutive month-to-month decline. Despite sharply rising activities in existing home sales and new housing starts from a year ago, prices on non-distressed home sales (excluding foreclosure auction sales, REO sales, and short sales) continue to slide, down 0.8% from February or 3.0% from a year ago.Click on graph for larger image.
All three RPI composites (the National, 30-MSA, and 10-MSA indices) show similar month-to-month declines in February, down about a percentage point from January. ... The indices’ year-to-year trends continue to show signs of improvement. According to the national RPI, home prices nationwide declined at a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.0% in February, the slowest pace in the last 20 months. The year-to-year declines at the nation’s top housing markets, as indicated by the 30- and 10-MSA composites, have also decelerated to below 4.0% -- their slowest pace since May 2010.
This graph is based on the FNC index (four composites) through February 2012. The FNC indexes are hedonic price indexes using a blend of sold homes and real-time appraisals.
The indexes are generally showing less of a year-over-year decline in February (I think prices will fall seasonally through the March report). This is the smallest year-over-year decline in the FNC index since the housing tax credit expired.
The February Case-Shiller index will be released tomorrow, and the consensus is for a 3.3% decrease in year-over-year prices (NSA) in February. (Zillow is forecasting that Case-Shiller will report a 3.5% decline for the Composite 10 index, and a 3.4% decline for the Composite 20).
Posted by Bill McBride on 4/23/2012 11:08:00 AM