by Bill McBride on 4/20/2012 02:47:00 PM
Friday, April 20, 2012
Note: Remember the Case-Shiller report is for February (really an average of prices in December, January and February). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data
Zillow Forecast: February Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.4% Decline from One Year Ago
On Tuesday, April 24th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close, and I expect Case-Shiller will report house prices at a new post-bubble low in February.
One of the keys this year will be to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 3.9% and 3.8% respectively in January, after declining 4.1% in December. Zillow is forecasting a smaller year-over-year decline in February.
|Case Shiller Composite 10||Case Shiller Composite 20|
|Zillow February Forecast||YoY||-3.5%||-3.5%||-3.4%||-3.4%|
|Post Bubble Lows||148.4||149.43||135.46||136.6|
|Date of Post Bubble Low||January 2012||January 2012||January 2012||January 2012|
|1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts|