Friday, April 20, 2012

Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in February

by Bill McBride on 4/20/2012 02:47:00 PM

Note: Remember the Case-Shiller report is for February (really an average of prices in December, January and February). This data is released with a significant lag, see: House Prices and Lagged Data

Zillow Forecast: February Case-Shiller Composite-20 Expected to Show 3.4% Decline from One Year Ago

On Tuesday, April 24th, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for February will be released. Zillow predicts that the 20-City Composite Home Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted [NSA]) will decline by 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis, while the 10-City Composite Home Price Index (NSA) will decline by 3.5 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from January to February will be -0.1 percent and -0.2 percent for the 20 and 10-City Composite Home Price Index (SA), respectively.
Zillow's forecasts for Case-Shiller have been pretty close, and I expect Case-Shiller will report house prices at a new post-bubble low in February.

One of the keys this year will be to watch the year-over-year change in the various house price indexes. The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 3.9% and 3.8% respectively in January, after declining 4.1% in December. Zillow is forecasting a smaller year-over-year decline in February.

Case Shiller Composite 10Case Shiller Composite 20
NSASANSASA
Case Shiller
(year ago)
February 2011152.38154.86139.06141.57
Case-Shiller
(last month)
January 2012148.4149.43135.46136.6
Zillow February ForecastYoY-3.5%-3.5%-3.4%-3.4%
MoM-0.9%-0.2%-0.8%-0.1%
Zillow Forecasts1147.1149.3134.4136.6
Post Bubble Lows148.4149.43135.46136.6
Date of Post Bubble LowJanuary 2012January 2012January 2012January 2012
1Estimate based on Year-over-year and Month-over-month Zillow forecasts

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