Thursday, January 26, 2012

GDP Report expected to show 3% annualized growth

by Bill McBride on 1/26/2012 10:05:00 PM

On December New Home Sales:
New Home Sales decline in December to 307,000 Annual Rate
2011: Record Low New Home Sales and 'Distressing Gap'
New Home Sales graphs

Last week on Existing Home sales:
Existing Home Sales in December: 4.61 million SAAR, 6.2 months of supply
Existing Home Sales: Inventory and NSA Sales Graph
Existing Home Sales graphs

GDP Forecast The BEA will release the Q4 advance GDP report Friday morning. The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q4.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The Red column is the forecast for Q4 GDP.

At 3% this would be the fastest growth rate since Q2 2010, however PCE growth will probably still be weak and will probably be closer to 2% annualized.

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