Friday, October 14, 2011

Retail Sales increased 1.1% in September

by Bill McBride on 10/14/2011 08:30:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.1% from August to September (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from September 2010. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $395.5 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.9 percent (±0.7%) above September 2010. Total sales for the July through September 2011 period were up 8.0 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2011 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%).
Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.6% in September. Sales for August were revised up to a 0.3% increase.

Retail Sales Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales are up 18.9% from the bottom, and now 4.5% above the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Year-over-year change in Retail SalesRetail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.4% on a YoY basis (7.9% for all retail sales).

The consensus was for retail sales to increase 0.8% in September, and for a 0.4% increase ex-auto.

This was a strong report, especially with the upward revisions to both July and August.