Tuesday, November 24, 2009

Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators

by Bill McBride on 11/24/2009 06:59:00 PM

So much data, so little time ... just catching up. This was released earlier today:

Philly Fed State Conincident Map Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Thirty seven states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 12 states, and was unchanged in 1.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for October.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 15 states (Kansas, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, and West Virginia), decreased in 27, and remained unchanged in eight (Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Indiana, Maine, Missouri, and Nevada) for a one month diffusion index of -24. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 12 states (Indiana, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, North Carolina, New Hampshire, Ohio, South Dakota, Tennessee, Virginia, Vermont, and West Virginia), decreased in 37, and remained unchanged in one (Idaho) for a three-month diffusion index of -50.
Philly Fed Number of States with Increasing ActivityThe second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator.

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

Although the number of states in recession has been declining, a majority of states still showed declining activity in October.