Thursday, July 23, 2009

Existing Home Sales increase in June

by Bill McBride on 7/23/2009 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Up Again

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 3.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.89 million units in June from a downwardly revised pace of 4.72 million in May, but are 0.2 percent lower than the 4.90 million-unit level in June 2008.
Total housing inventory at the end of June fell 0.7 percent to 3.82 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 9.8-month supply in May.
Existing Home Sales Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in June 2009 (4.89 million SAAR) were 3.6% higher than last month, and were 0.2% lower than June 2008 (4.90 million SAAR).

Here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):

Existing Home Sales NSA This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. For the first time in several years, sales (NSA) were slightly higher in June 2009 than in June 2008.

It's important to note that the NAR says about one-third of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales. Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-distressed sales) is much lower.

Existing Home Inventory The third graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.82 million in June. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Typically inventory increases in June, and peaks in July or August. This decrease in inventory was a little unusual.

Also, many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs and other shadow inventory - so this inventory number is probably low.

Existing Home Sales Months of SupplyThe fourth graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply declined to 9.4 months.

Sales increased slightly, and inventory decreased, so "months of supply" decreased. A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still very high.

I'll have more soon ...

Note: New Home sales will be released on Monday.

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