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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Industrial Production Declines Sharply in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2009 09:16:00 AM

How about this headline from Rex Nutting at MarketWatch: Biggest drop in industrial output since VE Day

Industrial production is down 13.3% since the recession began in December 2007, the largest percentage decline since the end of World War II. ... Factory output has fallen 15.7% during the recession, also the largest decline since 1945-1946.
Capacity Utilization Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Here is some serious cliff diving. Also - since capacity utilization is at a record low (the series starts in 1967), there is little reason for investment in new production facitilies.

The Federal Reserve reported:
Industrial production fell 1.5 percent in March after a similar decrease in February. For the first quarter as a whole, output dropped at an annual rate of 20.0 percent, the largest quarterly decrease of the current contraction. At 97.4 percent of its 2002 average, output in March fell to its lowest level since December 1998 and was nearly 13 percent below its year-earlier level. Production in manufacturing moved down 1.7 percent in March and has registered five consecutive quarterly decreases. Broad-based declines in production continued; one exception was the output of motor vehicles and parts, which advanced slightly in March but remained well below its year-earlier level. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines fell 3.2 percent in March, as oil and gas well drilling continued to drop. After a relatively mild February, a return to more seasonal temperatures pushed up the output of utilities. The capacity utilization rate for total industry fell further to 69.3 percent, a historical low for this series, which begins in 1967.
emphasis added