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Wednesday, April 15, 2009

Consumer Prices Decline Slightly in March

by Calculated Risk on 4/15/2009 08:42:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2 percent in March, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The index has decreased 0.4 percent over the last year, the first 12 month decline since August 1955.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U decreased 0.1 percent in March after rising 0.4 percent in February. The decrease was due to a downturn in the energy index ... The index for all items less food and energy increased 0.2 percent for the third month in a row.
But for some reason, owners' equivalent rent increased again in March:
The shelter index was virtually unchanged in March. The indexes for rent and owners' equivalent rent [OER] both rose 0.2 percent, but these increases were offset by a 2.4 percent decrease in the index for lodging away from home. This was the sixth straight monthly decline in that index, which has fallen 7.8 percent over the past year.
So CPI is picking up the decline in hotel room rates, but the survey is apparently missing the widespread decline in residential rents.

This is important because OER accounts for almost one-fourth of CPI. CPI ex-OER is off -0.2% in March.