by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2024 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.6 million. The number of total separations was unchanged at 5.2 million. Within separations, quits (3.1 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) changed little.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (black line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September; the employment report this Friday will be for October.

Click on graph for larger image.

Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are usually pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

The spike in layoffs and discharges in March 2020 is labeled, but off the chart to better show the usual data.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.44 million from 7.86 million in August.

The number of job openings (black) were down 20% year-over-year. 

Quits were down 15% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (See light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

by Calculated Risk on 10/29/2024 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for August ("August" is a 3-month average of June, July and August closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Records 4.2% Annual Gain in August 2024

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 4.2% annual return for August, down from a 4.8% annual gain in the previous month. The 10-City Composite saw an annual increase of 6.0%, down from a 6.8% annual increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.2%, dropping from a 5.9% increase in the previous month. New York again reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with an 8.1% increase in August, followed by Las Vegas and Chicago with annual increases of 7.3% and 7.2%, respectively. Denver posted the smallest year-over-year growth of 0.7%.
...
The pre-seasonally adjusted U.S. National Index, 20-City Composite, and 10-City Composite upward trends reversed in August, with a -0.1% drop for the national index, and the 20-City and 10-City Composites saw -0.3% and -0.4% returns for this month, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month increase of 0.3%, while the 20-City and 10-City Composite reported a monthly rise of 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively.

“Home price growth is beginning to show signs of strain, recording the slowest annual gain since mortgage rates peaked in 2023,” says Brian D. Luke, CFA, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets. “As students went back to school, home price shoppers appeared less willing to push the index higher than in the summer months. Prices continue to decelerate for the past six months, pushing appreciation rates below their long-run average of 4.8%. After smoothing for seasonality in the data, home prices continued to reach all-time highs, for the 15th month in a row.

“Regionally, all markets continue to remain positive, barely,” Luke continued. “Denver posted the slowest annual gain of all markets this year, dropping below Portland for the first time since the spring. The Northeast remains the best performing region, with the strongest gains for over a year. Currently, only New York, Las Vegas, and Chicago markets are at an all-time high. Comparing average gains of traditional red and blue states highlight a slight advantage for home price markets of blue states. With stronger gains in the Northeast and West than the South, blue states have outperformed red states dating back to July 2023.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index was up 0.3% in August (SA).  The Composite 20 index was up 0.4% (SA) in August.

The National index was up 0.3% (SA) in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA was up 6.0% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA was up 5.2% year-over-year.

The National index SA was up 4.2% year-over-year.

Annual price changes were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 07:19:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Back to 7%

It's no mystery that mortgage rates have had a terrible October. As of last Friday, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rates were up to 6.90--an increase of more than 0.625% this month. Today's 0.10% increase brings the rate index up to 7.0% exactly which is the highest we've seen since July 10th.
...
This week sees the return of highly relevant economic data with Friday's jobs report being the most important, by far. Each of the past two jobs reports has had a huge impact on rates due to wide deviations from expectations. If Friday's report is anywhere nearly as surprising, the impact on rates should play out on a similar scale. [30 year fixed 7.00%]
emphasis added

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the Composite 20 index to be up 6.0% year-over-year.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

• At 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

• Also at 10:00 AM, The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 04:04:00 PM

The October employment report will be released on Friday. The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%. 

Analysts are trying to estimate the distortion from Hurrican Milton.  In September 2005, the initial BLS report showed a loss of 35 thousand jobs due to the impact of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (Katrina hit in late August, and Rita during the reference period in September).  This was eventually revised to a gain of 57 thousand (still well below the average for the year of 210 thousand per month.  Milton also made landfall during the reference period, so the BLS will try to adjust for impact.

The BLS released the strike report on Friday, and that showed a loss of 41 thousand jobs due to strikes (mostly Boeing).

From Goldman Sachs:

We expect payroll growth of 95k in October (vs. 186k 3-month average) because Big Data measures point to slower job growth, we estimate the hurricanes will subtract 40-50k this month, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that strikes will exert a 41k drag. These drags should have less impact on ADP employment, which we expect to rise 115k in October.

We forecast an unchanged 4.1% unemployment rate.

From BofA:

We forecast nonfarm payrolls rose by 100k in October. Although this is below consensus, we’d still view it as a solid print, since we estimate that Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike lowered payrolls by about 50k. ... Meanwhile, the unemployment rate should move back up to 4.2%, partly due in part to hurricane distortions.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 11:02:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: A Proposal to Address the Housing Crisis

Brief excerpt:

Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis

U.S. housing costs are out of control. The median home for sale was rarely more than four times the median household income throughout the 1980s and 1990s. But by 2022, it had risen to nearly six times. Renters have not fared better. In 1980, around one third of renters were cost burdened, meaning they spent 30 percent or more of their income on housing. Fully half of renters are cost burdened today. 

The main reason housing is too expensive is that we don’t build nearly enough of it.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/28/2024 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was down 0.2% week-over-week. Inventory is now up 49.4% from the February seasonal bottom.  

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2024.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 31.2% compared to the same week in 2023 (last week it was up 33.4%), and down 20.2% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 21.0%). 

Back in June 2023, inventory was down almost 54% compared to 2019, so the gap to more normal inventory levels is closing.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 25th, inventory was at 738 thousand (7-day average), compared to 739 thousand the prior week. 

Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2024 06:17:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 27, 2024

Monday:
• 10:30 AM ET, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 24 and DOW futures are up 134 (fair value).

Oil prices were down over the last week with WTI futures at $71.78 per barrel and Brent at $76.05 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $86, and Brent was at $91 - so WTI oil prices are down about 16% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.08 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.48 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.40 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2024 10:15:00 AM

Employment in October will be negatively impacted by Hurricane Milton and the Boeing strike.

Here is the CES Strike report for October released on Friday.

This shows a total of 44,000 workers on strike in October.

The impact of Hurricane Milton is less clear.  Fed Governor Waller recently commented: 

[U]nfortunately, it won't be easy to interpret the October jobs report to be released just before the next FOMC meeting. This report will most likely show a significant but temporary loss of jobs from the two recent hurricanes and the strike at Boeing. I expect these factors may reduce employment growth by more than 100,000 this month, and there may be a small effect on the unemployment rate, but I'm not sure it will be that visible.

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2024 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• New Home Sales Increase to 738,000 Annual Rate in September

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 3.84 million SAAR in September, New Cycle Low

• Lawler: Update on the “Neutral” Rate and Early Read on September Existing Home Sales

• NMHC on Apartments: "Looser market conditions for the ninth consecutive quarter"

• California Home Sales Up 5% SA YoY in September

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2024 08:11:00 AM

Boo!

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q3 GDP and the October employment report.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays and PCE prices for September, the Case-Shiller house prices for August, October ISM manufacturing and services indexes, and October vehicle sales.

----- Monday, October 28th -----
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

----- Tuesday, October 29th -----
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the Composite 20 index to be up 6.0% year-over-year.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for September from the BLS.

This graph shows job openings (black line), hires (purple), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

Jobs openings increased in August to 8.04 million from 7.71 million in July.

The number of job openings (black) were down 14% year-over-year. Quits were down 14% year-over-year.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, October 30th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for October. This report is for private payrolls only (no government).  The consensus is for 108,000 jobs added, down from 143,000 in September.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2024 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.0% annualized in Q3, unchanged from 3.0% in Q2.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. The consensus is 1.0% decrease in the index.

----- Thursday, October 31st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 230 thousand initial claims, up from 227 thousand last week.

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for September. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.3%. PCE prices are expected to be up 2.1% YoY, and core PCE prices up 2.6% YoY.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 46.0, down from 46.6 in September.

----- Friday, November 1st -----
8:30 AM: Employment Report for October.   The consensus is for 120,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.1%.

There were 254,000 jobs added in September, and the unemployment rate was at 4.1%.

This graph shows the jobs added per month since January 2021.

10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for October.  The consensus is for 47.6, up from 47.2. 

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for September.  The consensus is for no change in spending.

All day: Light vehicle sales for October.

The consensus is for sales of 15.8 million SAAR, unchanged from 15.8 million SAAR in September (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the current sales rate.