by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2023 11:39:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Rents Continue to Decline; "Apartment Market Loosens"

A brief excerpt:

The rental market has changed rapidly. This index from the National Multifamily Housing Council (NMHC) has been an excellent leading indicator for rents and vacancy rates, and this suggests higher vacancy rates and falling asking rents in the coming months.

From the NMHC: Rents Continue to Fall as Apartment Market Loosens, Transactions Pull Back Due to Higher Interest Rates

• The Market Tightness Index came in at 14 this quarter—well below the breakeven level (50)—indicating looser market conditions for the second consecutive quarter. Over three-quarters of respondents (78%) reported markets to be looser than three months ago, while only 5% thought markets have become tighter. Another 16% of respondents thought that market conditions were unchanged over the past three months.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2023 10:22:00 AM

From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased:

Construction spending during December 2022 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,809.8 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised November estimate of $1,817.3 billion. The December figure is 7.7 percent above the December 2021 estimate of $1,681.0 billion.

The value of construction in 2022 was $1,792.9 billion, 10.2 percent above the $1,626.4 billion spent in 2021.
emphasis added

Both private and public spending decreased:

Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,427.1 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised November estimate of $1,432.9 billion. ...

In December, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $382.7 billion, 0.4 percent below the revised November estimate of $384.4 billion.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted.

Residential (red) spending is 9.3% below the recent peak.

Non-residential (blue) spending is slightly below the peak last month.

Public construction spending is close to the recent peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending.

On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 1.7%. Non-residential spending is up 15.0% year-over-year. Public spending is up 11.7% year-over-year.

This was below consensus expectations of a 0.1% decrease in spending, however construction spending for the previous two months combined were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2023 10:05:00 AM

(Posted with permission). The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction. The PMI® was at 47.4% in January, down from 48.4% in December. The employment index was at 50.6%, down from 50.8% last month, and the new orders index was at 42.5%, down from 45.1%.

From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 47.4% January 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®

conomic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in January for the third consecutive month following a 28-month period of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The January Manufacturing PMI® registered 47.4 percent, 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4 percent recorded in December. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI® figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5 percent. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.5 percent, 2.6 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted figure of 45.1 percent recorded in December. The Production Index reading of 48 percent is a 0.6-percentage point decrease compared to December’s seasonally adjusted figure of 48.6 percent. The Prices Index registered 44.5 percent, up 5.1 percentage points compared to the December figure of 39.4 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 43.4 percent, 2 percentage points higher than the December reading of 41.4 percent. The Employment Index continued in expansion territory (50.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage point from December’s seasonally adjusted 50.8 percent) after emerging from contraction territory (48.9 percent, seasonally adjusted) in November. The Supplier Deliveries Index figure of 45.6 percent is 0.5 percentage point higher than the 45.1 percent recorded in December; the last two readings are the index’s lowest since March 2009 (43.2 percent). The Inventories Index registered 50.2 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than the seasonally adjusted December reading of 52.3 percent. The New Export Orders Index reading of 49.4 percent is 3.2 percentage points higher than December’s figure of 46.2 percent. The Imports Index continued in contraction territory at 47.8 percent, 2.7 percentage points above the December reading of 45.1 percent.”
emphasis added

This suggests manufacturing contracted in January.  This was below the consensus forecast.  Note that prices are falling.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2023 08:25:00 AM

From ADP: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 106,000 Jobs in January; Annual Pay was Up 7.3%

Private sector employment increased by 106,000 jobs in January and annual pay was up 7.3 percent year-over-year, according to the January ADP® National Employment ReportTM produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (“Stanford Lab”).
...
"In January, we saw the impact of weather-related disruptions on employment during our reference week,” said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. “Hiring was stronger during other weeks of the month, in line with the strength we saw late last year.”
emphasis added

This was well below the consensus forecast of 170,000, however, ADP blamed it on the weather. The BLS report will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 185 thousand non-farm payroll jobs added in January.

by Calculated Risk on 2/01/2023 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 9.0 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending January 27, 2023.

... The Refinance Index decreased 7 percent from the previous week and was 80 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7 percent compared with the previous week and was 41 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage rates declined for the fourth straight week and have now fallen almost 40 basis points over the past month. Treasury yields were higher on average last week, while mortgage rates decreased, which was a sign of a narrowing spread between the two,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The spread between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury has been abnormally wide since early 2022. Further narrowing of that spread is expected to put downward pressure on mortgage rates in the coming months. Overall application activity declined last week despite lower rates, which is an indication of the still volatile time of the year for housing activity. Purchase activity is expected to pick up as the spring homebuying season gets underway, bolstered by lower rates and moderating home-price growth. Both trends will help some buyers regain purchasing power.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($726,200 or less) decreased to 6.19 percent from 6.20 percent, with points decreasing to 0.65 from 0.69 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022.

A month ago, the refinance index was at the lowest level since the year 2000, but it has rebounded a slightly as rates declined.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 41% year-over-year unadjusted.  This is near housing bust levels.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 09:00:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:15 AM, The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.

• At 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.

• Also, at 10:00 AM, Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.

• Also, at 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.

• At 2:00 PM, FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.

• At 2:30 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

• Late, Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 04:00:00 PM

Note: I like using Las Vegas as a measure of recovery for both leisure (visitors) and business (conventions).

From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: December 2022 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics

From the initial shadow of the omicron variant to record‐shattering room rates later in the year, Las Vegas enjoyed a robust recovery trajectory across core tourism indicators in 2022. With December 2022 visitation just 4.6% shy of December 2019, the year closed out with 38.8M annual visitors, 20.5% ahead of 2021 and ‐8.7% under 2019's tally.

Convention attendance for the year approached 5.0M attendees, dramatically ahead of pandemic‐suppressed volumes of 2021 and recovering to about three‐quarters of 2019's tally of 6.6M convention attendees.

Overall hotel occupancy reached 79.2% for the year , +12.4 pts YoY and down ‐9.7 pts vs. 2019. For the year, Weekend occupancy reached 89.3%, +8.0 pts over 2021 and ‐5.6 pts vs. 2019, while Midweek occupancy reached 74.7%, up 14.2 pts vs. 2021 but down ‐11.6 pts vs. 2019.

Strong room rates continued throughout 2022 as annual ADR reached $171, +24.5% higher than 2021 and +28.9% ahead of 2019 while RevPAR reached approx. $135 for the year, +47.6% YoY and +14.9% over 2019.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows visitor traffic for 2019 (dark blue), 2020 (light blue), 2021 (yellow) and 2022 (red)

Visitor traffic was down 4.6% compared to the same month in 2019.

Visitor traffic was up 10.1% compared to last December.

The second graph shows convention traffic.

Convention traffic was down 38.2% compared to December 2019.

Note: There was almost no convention traffic from April 2020 through May 2021.

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 01:31:00 PM

The Census Bureau released the Residential Vacancies and Homeownership report for Q4 2022.

The results of this survey were significantly distorted by the pandemic in 2020.

This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to track household formation, the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates.  However, there are serious questions about the accuracy of this survey.

This survey might show the trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers. Analysts probably shouldn't use the HVS to estimate the excess vacant supply or household formation, or rely on the homeownership rate, except as a guide to the trend.

National vacancy rates in the fourth quarter 2022 were 5.8 percent for rental housing and 0.8 percent for homeowner housing. The rental vacancy rate was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (5.6 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2022 (6.0 percent).

The homeowner vacancy rate of 0.8 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (0.9 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2022 (0.9 percent).

The homeownership rate of 65.9 percent was not statistically different from the rate in the fourth quarter 2021 (65.5 percent) and not statistically different from the rate in the third quarter 2022 (66.0 percent).
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The HVS homeownership rate decreased to 65.9% in Q4, from 66.0% in Q3.

The results in Q2 and Q3 2020 were distorted by the pandemic and should be ignored.



The HVS homeowner vacancy decreased to 0.8% in Q4 from 0.9% in Q3.

Once again - this probably shows the general trend, but I wouldn't rely on the absolute numbers.

The rental vacancy rate decreased to 5.8% in Q4 from 6.0% in Q3.  

The HVS also has a series on asking rents. This surged following the early stages of the pandemic - like other measures - and is up 9.5% year-over-year in Q4 2022.  This was down 0.9% in Q4 compared to Q3.

The quarterly HVS is the timeliest survey on households, but there are many questions about the accuracy of this survey.

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 11:22:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 7.7% year-over-year increase in November

Excerpt:

Both the Case-Shiller House Price Index (HPI) and the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) HPI for November were released today. Here is a graph of the month-over-month (MoM) change in the Case-Shiller National Index Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

The Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for “November” is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices. September closing prices include some contracts signed in July, so there is a significant lag to this data.

The MoM decrease in the Case-Shiller National Index was at -0.26% seasonally adjusted. This was the fifth consecutive MoM decrease, and a slightly larger decrease than in October.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices declined in 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities on a month-to-month basis (Detroit increased 0.1%). The largest monthly declines seasonally adjusted were in San Francisco (-1.4%), Phoenix (-1.4%) and Las Vegas (-1.2%). San Francisco has fallen 11.9% from the peak in May 2022 and is the first Case-Shiller city with a year-over-year decline (-1.6% year-over-year).
...
The November report was mostly for contracts signed in the July through October period - and was likely impacted slightly by the surge in rates in October.

The impact from higher rates in October and November will really show up in the Case-Shiller index over the next several months.

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 09:09:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decline in November

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a [7.7%] annual gain in November, down from [9.3%] in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at [6.3%], down from [8.0%] in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a [6.8%] year-over-year gain, down from [8.7%] in the previous month.

[Case-Shiller had an error in their text - corrected in brackets]

Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Miami led the way with a 18.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 16.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 12.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending November 2022 versus the year ending October 2022.
...
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%.

In November, all 20 cities reported declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%.

“November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.6% for the month, reflecting a -3.6% decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand more than -5.0% below their June peaks. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 7.7%, which is in the 74th percentile of historical performance levels.

“All 20 cities in our November report showed price declines on a month-over-month basis, with a median decline of -0.8%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, year-over-year gains in November were lower than those of October, with a median year-over-year increase of 6.4%. Interestingly, home prices in San Francisco were down by -1.6% year-over-year, the first negative result for any city since San Francisco’s -0.4% decline in October 2019. This is the worst year-over-year result for San Francisco in more than 10 years (since a -3.0% result in March 2012). West coast weakness was not limited to California, as San Francisco was followed by Seattle (+1.5%) and Portland (+3.9%) at the bottom of the league table.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is down 0.5% in November (SA) and down 4.1% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The Composite 20 index is down 0.5% (SA) in November and down 4.1% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The National index is down 0.3% (SA) in November and is down 2.5% from the peak in June 2022.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.8% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 7.7% year-over-year.

Annual price increases were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.