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Tuesday, January 31, 2023

Case-Shiller: National House Price Index "Continued to Decline" to 7.7% year-over-year increase in November

by Calculated Risk on 1/31/2023 09:09:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for November ("November" is a 3-month average of September, October and November closing prices).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index.

From S&P: S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller Index Continued to Decline in November

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a [7.7%] annual gain in November, down from [9.3%] in the previous month. The 10- City Composite annual increase came in at [6.3%], down from [8.0%] in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a [6.8%] year-over-year gain, down from [8.7%] in the previous month.

[Case-Shiller had an error in their text - corrected in brackets]

Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Miami led the way with a 18.4% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 16.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 12.7% increase. All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending November 2022 versus the year ending October 2022.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.6% month-over-month decrease in November, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.7% and -0.8%, respectively.

After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.3%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.5%.

In November, all 20 cities reported declines before seasonal adjustments. After seasonal adjustments, 19 cities reported declines, with only Detroit increasing 0.1%.

“November 2022 marked the fifth consecutive month of declining home prices in the U.S.,” says Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “For example, the National Composite Index fell -0.6% for the month, reflecting a -3.6% decline since the market peaked in June 2022. We saw comparable patterns in our 10- and 20-City Composites, both of which stand more than -5.0% below their June peaks. These declines, of course, came after very strong price increases in late 2021 and the first half of 2022. Despite its recent weakness, on a year-over-year basis the National Composite gained 7.7%, which is in the 74th percentile of historical performance levels.

“All 20 cities in our November report showed price declines on a month-over-month basis, with a median decline of -0.8%. Moreover, for all 20 cities, year-over-year gains in November were lower than those of October, with a median year-over-year increase of 6.4%. Interestingly, home prices in San Francisco were down by -1.6% year-over-year, the first negative result for any city since San Francisco’s -0.4% decline in October 2019. This is the worst year-over-year result for San Francisco in more than 10 years (since a -3.0% result in March 2012). West coast weakness was not limited to California, as San Francisco was followed by Seattle (+1.5%) and Portland (+3.9%) at the bottom of the league table.
emphasis added
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10, Composite 20 and National indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is down 0.5% in November (SA) and down 4.1% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The Composite 20 index is down 0.5% (SA) in November and down 4.1% from the recent peak in June 2022.

The National index is down 0.3% (SA) in November and is down 2.5% from the peak in June 2022.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the year-over-year change in all three indices.

The Composite 10 SA is up 6.3% year-over-year.  The Composite 20 SA is up 6.8% year-over-year.

The National index SA is up 7.7% year-over-year.

Annual price increases were close to expectations.  I'll have more later.