by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2022 08:32:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 4,000 from 222,000 to 218,000. The 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 224,000.

The previous week was revised down.

Weekly claims were below the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 08:33:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for an increase to 225 thousand from 222 thousand last week.

• Also, at 8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in retail sales.

• Also, at 8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 3.5, down from 6.2.

• Also, at 8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of -13.9, up from -31.3.

• At 9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 80.3%.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	60,558	75,629	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	28,238	29,848	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	350	352	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 05:38:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at MortgageNewsDaily: Boring Day For Rates, But Not "Good" Boring

The mortgage market is no stranger to excitement in 2022. Unfortunately, it hasn't been the good kind of excitement. That's especially true of the past few weeks as rates pushed back up to long term highs. After yesterday's upside surprise in the Consumer Price Index (a key inflation report that frequently causes volatility in markets), rates surged up to match the highest levels in 14 years.
...
Lenders continue to offer rates in the low to mid 6% range. Many loans continue to require a historically high amount of upfront cost due to pricing constraints in the mortgage bond market (i.e. investors aren't offering premiums to buy loans that run a high risk of being paid off the moment rates drop enough for a refi to make sense).

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph from Mortgage News Daily (MND) showing 30-year fixed rates from three sources (MND, MBA, Freddie Mac) over the last 5 years.  

The 30-year fixed rate for top tier scenarios was 6.30% today, up from the recent low of 5.05% on August 1st.

Go to MND and you can adjust the graph for different time periods.

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 11:20:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in August

A brief excerpt:

This is the second look at local markets in August. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

The big story for August existing home sales is the sharp year-over-year (YoY) decline in sales. Another key story is that new listings are down YoY in August as the sellers’ strike continues. Of course, active listings are up sharply YoY, but inventory growth has stalled. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand, likely because of higher mortgage rates.

In August, sales in these markets were down 20.2%.

Note that in August 2022, there was one more selling day than in August 2021, so the SA decline in August sales will be larger than the NSA decline.

The opposite was true in July (one more selling day in July 2021 than in July 2022). So, seasonally adjusted, this is probably close to the same YoY decline as in July.

Many more local markets to come!

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/14/2022 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 1.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending September 9, 2022. This week’s results include an adjustment for the observance of Labor Day.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4 percent from the previous week and was 83 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 0.2 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 12 percent compared with the previous week and was 29 percent lower than the same week one year ago.

“The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit the six percent mark for the first time since 2008 – rising to 6.01 percent – which is essentially double what it was a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Higher mortgage rates have pushed refinance activity down more than 80 percent from last year and have contributed to more homebuyers staying on the sidelines. Government loans, which tend to be favored by first-time buyers, bucked this trend and increased over the week, driven mainly by VA and USDA lending activity.”

Added Kan, “The spread between the conforming 30-year fixed mortgage rate and both ARM and jumbo loans remained wide last week, at 118 and 45 basis points, respectively. The wide spread underscores the volatility in capital markets due to uncertainty about the Fed’s next policy moves.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 6.01 percent from 5.94 percent, with points decreasing to 0.76 from 0.79 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index has declined sharply this year.

The refinance index is at the lowest level since the year 2000.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 29% year-over-year unadjusted.

The purchase index is now only 8% above the pandemic low.

Note: Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 09:13:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Producer Price Index for August from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in PPI, and a 0.3% increase in core PPI.

On COVID (focus on hospitalizations and deaths):

COVID Metrics
	Now	Week Ago	Goal
New Cases per Day2	67,342	74,627	≤5,0001
Hospitalized2	28,138	30,161	≤3,0001
Deaths per Day2	358	365	≤501
1my goals to stop daily posts, 27-day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7-day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7-day average (line) of deaths reported.

Average daily deaths bottomed in July 2021 at 214 per day.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 01:24:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Current State of the Housing Market

A brief excerpt:

There have been three recent key changes in the housing market:

1. New listings have declined significantly year-over-year.

2. This “Sellers’ Strike” has led to inventory growth stalling.

3. And homeowners have continued to borrow against their home equity, shifting from cash-out refinance to home equity loans (so they can keep their low interest 1st mortgage).
...
In July, inventory was still low, but increasing quickly. However, the decline in new listings has led to inventory growth stalling recently.

Here is a graph from Realtor.com’s August Housing Trends Report.
...
Next week, existing home sales will likely show another sharp year-over-year decline in sales for August - with sales solidly below 5 million SAAR again. Housing starts will probably show further declines (and still a near record number of homes under construction).

There is much more in the article. You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 11:19:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.7% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.6% in August. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details here: "Motor Fuel" decreased at a 73% annualized rate in August!

Note that Owners' Equivalent Rent and Rent of Primary Residence account for almost 1/3 of median CPI, and these measures were up between 7.5% annualized in the Midwest and almost 11% in the South with an average of close to 8.7%. The year-over-year increase was larger in August than in July.  

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 6.7%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 7.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 6.3%. Core PCE is for July and increased 4.6% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 08:48:00 AM

The BLS reported this morning:

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 8.7 percent over the last 12 months to an index level of 291.629 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index declined 0.2 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.

CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). The calculation dates have changed over time (see Cost-of-Living Adjustments), but the current calculation uses the average CPI-W for the three months in Q3 (July, August, September) and compares to the average for the highest previous average of Q3 months. Note: this is not the headline CPI-U and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

• In 2021, the Q3 average of CPI-W was 268.421.

The 2021 Q3 average was the highest Q3 average, so we only have to compare Q3 this year to last year.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows CPI-W since January 2000. The red lines are the Q3 average of CPI-W for each year.

Note: The year labeled is for the calculation, and the adjustment is effective for December of that year (received by beneficiaries in January of the following year).

CPI-W was up 8.7% year-over-year in August, and although this is early - we need the data for September - my guess is COLA will probably be around 8.6% to 8.8% this year, the largest increase since 11.2% in 1981 (and larger than the 7.4% increase in 1982).

Contribution and Benefit Base

The contribution base will be adjusted using the National Average Wage Index. This is based on a one-year lag. The National Average Wage Index is not available for 2021 yet, but wages probably increased again in 2021. If wages increased 4% in 2021, then the contribution base next year will increase to around $153,000 in 2023, from the current $147,000.

Remember - this is an early look. What matters is average CPI-W, NSA, for all three months in Q3 (July, August and September).

by Calculated Risk on 9/13/2022 08:32:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1 percent in August on a seasonally adjusted basis after being unchanged in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment.

Increases in the shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors to the broad-based monthly all items increase. These increases were mostly offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The food index continued to rise, increasing 0.8 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.7 percent. The energy index fell 5.0 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined, but the electricity and natural gas indexes increased.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.6 percent in August, a larger increase than in July. The indexes for shelter, medical care, household furnishings and operations, new vehicles, motor vehicle insurance, and education were among those that increased over the month. There were some indexes that declined in August, including those for airline fares, communication, and used cars and trucks.

The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller figure than the 8.5-percent increase for the period ending July. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 23.8 percent for the 12 months ending August, a smaller increase than the 32.9-percent increase for the period ending July. The food index increased 11.4 percent over the last year, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending May 1979.
emphasis added

Both CPI and core CPI were above expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.