by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2021 06:56:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 17, 2021

• Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?

Monday:
• At 9:15 AM ET, The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.5%.

• At 10:00 AM, The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  76, unchanged from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 and DOW futures are down slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $83.05 per barrel and Brent at $85.31 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $41, and Brent was at $41 - so WTI oil prices are up more than double year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.31 per gallon. A year ago prices were at $2.14 per gallon, so gasoline prices are up $1.17 per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/17/2021 04:14:00 PM

Today, in the Newsletter: Will 4% Mortgage Rates "Halt the Housing Market"?

Excerpt:

On Friday, Sara Eisen asked: “Do you think this hot housing market gets even hotter?”

And Zelman answered:

"No. I don’t. I think the housing market is already starting to show some moderation. And I think that it is going to become even more evident as rates are starting to back up. And the continued upward pressure on home prices which is not sustainable is really impacting affordability. We are starting to see incentives by builders creep back into the market. And we are seeing resistance by consumers that are really questioning whether or not, not only can they can afford it, and do they really want to buy at the top of the market."

See my comments on the interview, and Please subscribe!

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2021 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Newsletter this week:

• House Prices to National Average Wage Index

• 3rd Look at Local Housing Markets in September Adding Albuquerque, Atlanta, Colorado, Georgia, Jacksonville, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Portland, and South Carolina

• Will House Prices Increase "a further 16% by the end of 2022"? This note is based on a new Goldman Sachs Forecast

• Mortgage Rates Highest in 6 Months Refinance Activity Will Slow

This will usually be published several times a week, and will provide more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

The blog will continue as always!

You can subscribe at https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/  Currently all content is available for free - and some will always be free - but please subscribe!.

by Calculated Risk on 10/16/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are September Housing Starts and Existing Home sales.

For manufacturing, September Industrial Production, and the October Philly Fed survey will be released this week.

----- Monday, October 18th -----
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for September.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 76.5%.

10:00 AM: The October NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  76, unchanged from 76 in September. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, October 19th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for September.

This graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.620 million SAAR, up from 1.615 million SAAR.

----- Wednesday, October 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, October 21st -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 290 thousand initial claims, down from 293 thousand last week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 24.5, down from 30.7.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 6.06 million SAAR, up from 5.88 million in August.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

----- Friday, October 22nd -----
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for September 2021

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 03:22:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 406,570,875, as of a week ago 400,669,422, or 0.84 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	56.8%	56.3%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	188.7	186.9	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	82,324	95,171	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	56,817	64,388	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,248	1,399	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of Vermont that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 70.4%.

KUDOS also to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Connecticut at 69.8%, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia,  Colorado, and California at 60.2%.

The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Pennsylvania at 59.2%, Minnesota, Hawaii, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 51.1%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 49.4%, Indiana at 49.2%, Missouri at 49.0%, Oklahoma at 48.9% and South Carolina at 48.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 12:15:00 PM

These are forecasts of the advance estimate of GDP to be released on Oct 28th.

Here is a table of some of the forecasts over the last 2+ months. The significant downgrades during the quarter were primarily due to analysts underestimating the impact of the recent COVID wave, and also the impact of supply chain disruptions.

	Merrill	Goldman	GDPNow
7/30/21	7.0%	9.0%	6.1%
8/20/21	4.5%	5.5%	6.1%
9/10/21	4.5%	3.5%	3.7%
9/17/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.6%
9/24/21	4.5%	4.5%	3.7%
10/1/21	4.1%	4.25%	2.3%
10/8/21	2.0%	3.25%	1.3%
10/15/21	2.0%	3.25%	1.2%

From BofA Merrill Lynch:

We continue to track 2% for 3Q GDP [Oct 15 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q3 GDP tracking estimate unchanged after rounding at +3¼% (qoq ar). [Oct 15 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is 1.2 percent on October 15, down from 1.3 percent on October 8. [Oct 15 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 10:41:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of October 12th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Another Week of Significant Forbearance Declines

As expected, we saw another significant drop in the number of active forbearances this week, as the first wave of final plan expirations continues.

According to our McDash Flash daily forbearance tracking dataset, active plans fell by another 10%, for an overall reduction of 143,000 since last Tuesday – on top of last week’s 177,000 (-11%) drop.

Once again, declines were seen across all investor classes, led by an 88,000 (-19%) plan drop among loans held in bank portfolios and private label securities. The number of homeowners in GSE and FHA/VA loans in forbearance saw matching 6% declines, for 22,000 and 33,000 reductions respectively.

As of October 12, 1.25 million mortgage holders remain in COVID-19 related forbearance plans, representing 2.4% of all active mortgages, including 1.3% of GSE, 4% of FHA/VA and 3% of portfolio held and privately securitized loans.

Click on graph for larger image.

More than 450,000 homeowners have exited their forbearance plans over the past two weeks alone. With some 47,000 September month-end expirations still left to process and another 329K scheduled for review for extension or removal in October, the potential for further, substantial declines will continue into early November.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 10/15/2021 08:38:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales were increased 0.7% from August to September (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 13.9 percent from September 2020.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2021, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $625.4 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent from the previous month, and 13.9 percent above September 2020. ... The July 2021 to August 2021 percent change was revised from up 0.7 percent to up 0.9 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.6% in September.

The stimulus checks boosted retail sales significantly in March and April.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 12.1% on a YoY basis.

Sales in September were above expectations, and sales in July and August were revised up.

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2021 08:01:00 PM

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for September will be released.  The consensus is for a 0.2% decrease in retail sales.

• Also at 8:30 AM, The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for October. The consensus is for a reading of 27.0, down from 34.3.

• At 10:00 AM, University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for October).

by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2021 07:08:00 PM

The CDC is the source for all data.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.  Total doses administered: 405,444,558, as of a week ago 398,675,414, or 0.97 million doses per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Week Ago	Goal
Percent fully Vaccinated	56.7%	56.1%	≥70.0%1
Fully Vaccinated (millions)	188.3	186.4	≥2321
New Cases per Day3	84,555	96,666	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3	56,817	64,388	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3	1,241	1,434	≤502
1 Minimum to achieve "herd immunity" (estimated between 70% and 85%). 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Currently Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met.

IMPORTANT: For "herd immunity" most experts believe we need 70% to 85% of the total population fully vaccinated (or already had COVID).  

KUDOS to the residents of Vermont that have achieved 70% of total population fully vaccinated: Vermont at 70.4%.

KUDOS also to the residents of the 14 states and D.C. that have achieved 60% of total population fully vaccinated: Connecticut at 69.7%, Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Maryland, New York, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, Virginia, District of Columbia,  Colorado, and California at 60.1%.

The following 20 states have between 50% and 59.9% fully vaccinated: Minnesota at 59.0%, Pennsylvania, Hawaii, Delaware, Florida, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Kentucky, South Dakota, Texas, Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Alaska, Utah, North Carolina and Ohio at 51.0%.

Next up (total population, fully vaccinated according to CDC) are Montana at 49.3%, Indiana at 49.1%, Missouri at 48.9%, Oklahoma at 48.8% and South Carolina at 48.7%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.