by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2021 05:13:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 3rd.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 22nd.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 341,039,972, as of a week ago 337,239,448. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	68.8%	68.7%	68.1%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	162.7	162.4	161.0	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	47,455	44,063	30,682	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	23,616	22,468	16,960	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	253	249	216	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Florida at 67.2%, Utah at 67.1%, Wisconsin at 66.7%, Nebraska at 66.7%, South Dakota at 65.6%, Iowa at 65.1%, Nevada at 64.4% and Arizona at 63.8%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Almost 65,000 new cases were reported so far today.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/24/2021 08:11:00 AM

The key report this week is the advance estimate of Q2 GDP.

Other key reports include June New Home Sales, Personal Income and Outlays for June, and Case-Shiller house prices for May.

For manufacturing, the July Richmond and Dallas Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, July 26th -----
10:00 AM: New Home Sales for June from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 800 thousand SAAR, up from 769 thousand in May.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July.

----- Tuesday, July 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for June from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 2.1% increase in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for May.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 16.3% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for May.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for May. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for July. This is the last of the regional surveys for July.

10:00 AM: The Q2 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

----- Wednesday, July 28th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, July 29th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter (advance estimate), and annual update. The consensus is that real GDP increased 8.6% annualized in Q2, up from 6.4% in Q1.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for a decrease to 400 thousand from 419 thousand last week.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for June. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

----- Friday, July 30th -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays, June 2020. The consensus is for a 0.3% decrease in personal income, and for a 0.7% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.6%.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for July.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Final for July). The consensus is for a reading of 80.8.

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 04:50:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 6th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 25th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 340,363,922, as of a week ago 336,604,158. Average doses last week: 0.54 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	68.7%	68.6%	68.0%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	162.4	162.2	160.7	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	43,729	40,246	28,964	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	22,246	21,269	16,297	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	250	223	211	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 67.1%, Florida at 67.1%, Wisconsin at 66.7%, Nebraska at 66.4%, South Dakota at 65.5%, Iowa at 65.0% and Nevada at 64.2%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Almost 65,000 new cases were reported so far today.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 02:46:00 PM

From WardsAuto: July U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Continue Free-Fall from Springtime Peak (pay content)

Wards notes low inventories and supply issues (mircochips) are impacting sales.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for July (Red).

The Wards forecast of 14.8 million SAAR, would be down about 4% from last month, and up 1% from a year ago (sales were recovering in June 2020 from the depths of the pandemic).

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 11:40:00 AM

Some interesting information from the REALTORS® Confidence Index Survey June 2021

Several metrics indicate that demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong. With limited supply in the market, homes typically sold within 17 days (24 days one year ago), as buyer competition continues. However, the REALTORS® Buyer Traffic Index decreased from 77 in May 2021 to 71 (moderately strong conditions) in June 2021 while the REALTORS® Seller Traffic Index remains below 50 which is “weak” traffic compared to the level one year ago. On average, a home sold had more than 4 offers, slightly lower than the average of 5 offers in last month’s survey. REALTORS® expect home prices in the next three months to increase nearly 4% from one year ago compared to 5% outlook in last month’s survey. Respondents expect sales in the next three months to increase nearly 1% from last year’s sales level compared to the 2% outlook in last month’s survey.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This map, from the June NAR report, shows buyer traffic is still "moderately strong" to "very strong" just about everywhere.

However this is less demand than a few months ago.

As the NAR noted: "demand is softening although the market is still broadly strong".

The second map is from the April report.

In April, buyer traffic was very strong just about everywhere.

There has also been a shift in seller traffic, with more traffic in many states (compare map from April on page 3 to the map from June also on page 3).

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 11:19:00 AM

The BEA will release the advance estimate of Q2 GDP next Thursday. The consensus forecast is for real GDP to increase 8.2% in Q2, from Q1, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).

From BofA:

We expect growth of 8.5% qoq saar in 2Q from 6.4% qoq saar in 1Q. [July 23 estimate]
emphasis added

From Goldman Sachs:

We left our Q2 GDP tracking estimate unchanged at +8¼% (qoq ar). [July 22 estimate]

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 3.2% for 2021:Q2 and 4.1% for 2021:Q3. [July 23 estimate]

And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2021 is 7.6 percent on July 20, up from 7.5 percent on July 16. [July 20 estimate]

by Calculated Risk on 7/23/2021 08:55:00 AM

Note: Both Black Knight and the MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) are putting out weekly estimates of mortgages in forbearance.

This data is as of July 20th.

From Andy Walden at Black Knight: Forbearances Flat for Second Consecutive Week

Not much to report with this week’s snapshot of our McDash Flash daily Forbearance Tracker data, as we’ve come to expect in the mid-month period.

Last week’s slight net decline of just 1,000 was matched by a 2,000 increase in the number of active forbearance plans over the past seven days, leaving volumes essentially flat for the second week in a row.

As of July 20, 1.86 million borrowers remain in COVID-19 forbearance plans, making up 3.5% of all active mortgages and 2.1% of GSE, 6.2% of FHA/VA and 4.1% of Portfolio/PLS loans.

What weekly improvement there was – among GSE forbearance plans (-8,000) – was more than offset by a 9,000 rise among portfolio/PLS forbearances and 1,000 additional FHA plans.

Click on graph for larger image.

All in, this puts the number of loans in active forbearance down 198,000 (-9.6%) from the same time last month. Some 230,000 plans are still scheduled to be reviewed for extension/removal in July, down from roughly 400,000 last week.

Restarts remained elevated this week, while new forbearance plan volumes continue remain low. Removals held steady week to week and remain on the lower end of the spectrum – as we typically see in the middle of the month – while plan extensions hit the lowest level since late February.
emphasis added

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 06:46:00 PM

Note: The year-over-year occupancy comparisons are easy, since occupancy declined sharply at the onset of the pandemic.  So STR is comparing to the same week in 2019.

The occupancy rate is down 8.7% compared to the same week in 2019.

From CoStar: STR: Weekly US Hotel Occupancy Reaches Pre-Pandemic Level While ADR Drops Slightly

U.S. weekly hotel occupancy reached its highest level since October 2019, according to STR‘s latest data through July 17.

July 11-17, 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019*):

• Occupancy: 71.0% (-8.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$139.19 (+1.8%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$98.87 (-7.1%)

Despite a four-point, week-over-week improvement in occupancy, ADR dipped slightly from the all-time high achieved the previous week.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, dashed purple is 2019, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year on record for hotels prior to 2020).

Occupancy is well above the horrible 2009 levels and weekend occupancy (leisure) has been solid.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

With solid leisure travel, the Summer months should have decent occupancy - but it is uncertain what will happen in the Fall with business travel.  In another recent article, a CoStar analyst points out "Leisure Demand Continues To Do the Heavy Lifting for Industry".

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 06:21:00 PM

The 7-day average cases is the highest since May 8th.

The 7-day average hospitalizations is the highest since May 28th.

This data is from the CDC.

According to the CDC, on Vaccinations.

Total doses administered: 339,763,765, as of a week ago 336,054,953. Average doses last week: 0.53 million per day.

COVID Metrics
	Today	Yesterday	Week Ago	Goal
Percent over 18, One Dose	68.6%	68.4%	67.9%	≥70.0%1,2
Fully Vaccinated✅ (millions)	162.2	161.9	160.4	≥1601
New Cases per Day3🚩	40,246	37,642	27,443	≤5,0002
Hospitalized3🚩	21,153	20,286	15,712	≤3,0002
Deaths per Day3🚩	223	206	204	≤502
1 America's Short Term Goals, 2my goals to stop daily posts, 37 day average for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths 🚩 Increasing 7 day average week-over-week for Cases, Hospitalized, and Deaths ✅ Goal met (even if late).

KUDOS to the residents of the 20 states and D.C. that have achieved the 70% goal (percent over 18 with at least one dose): Vermont, Hawaii, Massachusetts and Connecticut are at 80%+, and Maine, New Mexico, New Jersey,  Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, California, Maryland, Washington, New Hampshire, New York, Illinois, Virginia, Delaware, Minnesota, Oregon, Colorado and D.C. are all over 70%.

Next up are Utah at 67.1%, Florida at 66.9%, Wisconsin at 66.6%, Nebraska at 66.4%, South Dakota at 65.4%, and Iowa at 64.9%.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the daily (columns) and 7 day average (line) of positive tests reported.

Over 50,000 new cases reported today.

This data is from the CDC.

by Calculated Risk on 7/22/2021 03:44:00 PM

Earlier: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 5.86 million in June

Two key points:

1) Existing home sales are still somewhat above pre-pandemic levels. Seasonally adjusted (SA) sales for May were the highest since 2006, and sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) in June 2021 were also the highest since 2006. 

Some of the increase over the previous eleven months was probably related to  record low mortgage rates, strong second home buying, a strong stock market and favorable demographics.

Also, the delay in the 2020 buying season pushed the seasonally adjusted number to very high levels over the winter.   This means there are going to be some difficult comparisons in the second half of 2021!

2) Inventory is very low, and was down 18.8% year-over-year (YoY) in May.  Also, as housing economist Tom Lawler has noted, the local MLS data shows even a larger decline in active inventory (the NAR appears to include some pending sales in inventory). Lawler noted:

"As I’ve noted before, the inventory measure in most publicly-released local realtor/MLS reports excludes listings with pending contracts, but that is not the case for many of the reports sent to the NAR (referred to as the “NAR Report!”), Since the middle of last Spring inventory measures excluding pending listings have fallen much more sharply than inventory measures including such listings, and this latter inventory measure understates the decline in the effective inventory of homes for sale over the last several months."

It seems likely that active inventory is down close to 40% year-over-year.

Months-of-supply at 2.6 months is still very low, but above the record low of 1.9 months set in December 2020 and January 2021.  Inventory will be important to watch in 2021, see: Some thoughts on Housing Inventory

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales by month for 2020 and 2021.

The year-over-year comparison will be more difficult in the second half of the year.   

The second graph shows existing home sales for each month, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), since 2005.

Sales NSA in June (614,000) were 21.1% above sales in June 2020 (507,000).

This was the highest sales for June, NSA, since 2006.