by Calculated Risk on 9/18/2017 09:19:00 AM

From Black Knight: Black Knight: Hurricane Preliminary Assessment Shows Over 3.1 Million Mortgaged Properties in Hurricane Irma Disaster Areas

• Florida FEMA-designated disaster areas related to Hurricane Irma include over 3.1 million mortgaged properties

• Irma-related disaster areas contain nearly three times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Hurricane Harvey, and nearly seven times as many as those connected to Hurricane Katrina in 2005

• The $517 billion in unpaid principal balances in Irma-related disaster areas is nearly three times the amount as in those related to Harvey and more than 11 times of those connected to Katrina

• Irma-related disaster areas now include more than 90 percent of all mortgaged properties in Florida

Today, the Data & Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services, Inc. released a preliminary assessment of the potential mortgage-related impact from Hurricane Irma. As Black Knight Data & Analytics Executive Vice President Ben Graboske explained, both the number of mortgages and the unpaid principal balances of those mortgages in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas are significantly larger than in the areas impacted recently by Hurricane Harvey.

“While the total extent of the damage from Hurricane Irma is still being determined, it is clear that the size and scope of the disaster is immense,” said Graboske. “Indeed, in terms of the number of mortgaged properties and their associated unpaid principal balances, Irma significantly outpaces even the number of borrowers impacted by Hurricane Harvey. With FEMA expanding the number of Irma-related designated disaster areas late Wednesday, Sept. 13, to a total of 37 Florida counties, more than 90 percent of all mortgaged properties in the state now fall into such areas. More than 3.1 million properties are now included in FEMA-designated Irma disaster areas, representing approximately $517 billion in unpaid principal balances. In comparison, Harvey-related disaster areas held 1.18 million properties – more than twice as many as with Hurricane Katrina in 2005 – with a combined unpaid principal balance of $179 billion. Irma-related disaster areas now contain nearly seven times as many mortgaged properties as those connected to Katrina, with more than 11 times the principal balances.

“As Irma forged its path of destruction through the Caribbean, one relatively positive development was that Puerto Rico escaped the direct hit many had predicted. From a mortgage performance perspective, this was particularly good news, as delinquencies there were already quite high leading up to the storm. At more than 10 percent, Puerto Rico’s delinquency rate is nearly three times that of the U.S. average, as is its 5.8 percent serious delinquency rate. In contrast, the disaster areas declared in Florida have starting delinquency rates below the national average, providing more than a glimmer of optimism as we move forward.”

CR Note: Delinquencies will rise in both Texas and Florida in the next few months. Unfortunately it looks like Puerto Rico will take a direct hit from Hurricane Maria this week.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2017 07:52:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of Sept 17, 2017

Monday:
• At 10:00 AM ET, The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 65, down from 68 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: S&P 500 and DOW futures are up slightly (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $49.79 per barrel and Brent at $55.53 per barrel.  A year ago, WTI was at $43, and Brent was at $46 - so oil prices are up 15% to 20% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.61 per gallon - up sharply due to Hurricane Harvey, but starting to decline - a year ago prices were at $2.20 per gallon - so gasoline prices are up 41 cents per gallon year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/17/2017 08:11:00 AM

The consensus is that the Fed will not change the Fed Funds Rate at the meeting this coming week.  However the Fed is expected to start the process of balance sheet normalization.

Assuming the expected happens - no rate hike and the start of balance sheet normalization - the focus will be on the wording of the statement, the projections, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen's press conference to try to determine if there will be a 3rd rate hike in 2017 at the December meeting.

Here are the June FOMC projections.

The projection for GDP in 2017 will likely be either unchanged or revised down slightly.  GDP in Q1 was at 1.2% annualized, and Q2 at 3.0%.  Currently projections put Q3 GDP at around 1.3% to 2.2% (the hurricanes probably pushed down Q3 GDP, and some bounce back is likely in Q4).

My guess is, as far as the impact of any fiscal stimulus, the Fed will continue to wait and see what the actual proposals will be.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Change in Real GDP1	2017	2018	2019
June 2017	2.1 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.0
Mar 2017	2.0 to 2.2	1.8 to 2.3	1.8 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.4% in August. So the unemployment rate for Q4 2017 will probably be unchanged.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Unemployment Rate2	2017	2018	2019
June 2017	4.2 to 4.3	4.0 to 4.3	4.1 to 4.4
Mar 2017	4.5 to 4.6	4.3 to 4.6	4.3 to 4.7

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of July, PCE inflation was up 1.4% from July 2016.  It appears inflation might be revised down for 2017.

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
PCE Inflation1	2017	2018	2019
June 2017	1.6 to 1.7	1.8 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1
Mar 2017	1.8 to 2.0	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1

PCE core inflation was up 1.4% in July year-over-year.  Core PCE inflation will probably be revised down for 2017.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents
Core Inflation1	2017	2018	2019
June 2017	1.6 to 1.7	1.8 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1
Mar 2017	1.8 to 1.9	1.9 to 2.0	2.0 to 2.1

In general, it appears GDP and inflation might be revised down (GDP slightly), and the unemployment rate will be unchanged.  The inflation outlook will be key for a Fed rate hike in December.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2017 05:32:00 PM

CR Note: The FOMC is scheduled to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. No change to rates is expected at this meeting, but the FOMC is expected to announce the beginning of the process to reduce the Fed's balance sheet.

A brief excerpt from a research note by Goldman Sachs economists:

We expect the FOMC to officially announce next week that balance sheet runoff will begin in October. As the Fed has already communicated extensively about its plan for a gradual and predictable runoff, we expect markets to focus instead on the outlook for the federal funds rate. The key question is whether the committee’s expectations for the federal funds rate have declined in light of the surprising deceleration in the inflation data since the start of the year.

by Calculated Risk on 9/16/2017 08:09:00 AM

The key economic reports this week are August housing starts and existing home sales.

For manufacturing, the Philly Fed manufacturing survey will be released this week.

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to announce the reduction of the Fed's balance sheet.

----- Monday, Sept 18th -----
10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 65, down from 68 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

----- Tuesday, Sept 19th -----
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August. The consensus is for 1.173 million SAAR, up from the July rate of 1.155 million.

This graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

The graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering.

----- Wednesday, Sept 20th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for August (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for August from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 5.48 million SAAR, up from 5.44 million in July.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce the beginning of the process to reduce the Fed's balance sheet at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Janet Yellen holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, Sept 21st -----
8:30 AM ET: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 303 thousand initial claims, up from 284 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 18.0, down from 18.9.

9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index for June 2017. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

12:00 PM: Q2 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

----- Friday, Sept 22nd -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2017 02:28:00 PM

From housing economist Tom Lawler: ACS-Based Household Growth Slowed Last Year: Homeownership Rate Estimate Up, But Barely

The Census Bureau released the results of its 2016 American Community Survey, which provides a wide range of estimated statistics about people and housing. On the housing front, the ACS-based estimate of the number of occupied housing units (or households) for 2016 (yearly average) was 118,860,065, up just 651,815 from the estimate from the 2015 ACS. The ACS-based homeownership rate for 2016 was 63.1%, up just a tad from the 63.0% in 2015.

The growth rate of nonfamily households outpaced the growth in family households last year, with the fastest growth coming in nonfamily households with two or more people. This growth in part reflected a sharp jump in roomers and boarders.

ACS-Based Household Estimates
	2016	2015	Change	% Change
Total	118,860,065	118,208,250	651,815	0.55%
Family	77,785,962	77,530,756	255,206	0.33%
Nonfamily	41,074,103	40,677,494	396,609	0.98%
1-person	33,254,192	32,962,990	291,202	0.88%
2+-person	7,819,911	7,714,504	105,407	1.37%

In terms of the composition of people in “family” households, last year there were relatively big gains in (1) the number of “adult” (18+ years old) children living with their parent(s); (2) the number of “other relatives;” and (3) the number of “nonrelatives” excluding the householder’s unmarried partner.

Number of People in Family Households by Relationship to Householder, ACS
	2016	2015	Change	% Change
Total	261,765,779	260,613,760	1,152,019	0.44%
Householder:	77,785,962	77,530,756	255,206	0.33%
Spouse	56,952,253	56,681,711	270,542	0.48%
Child:	95,553,251	95,198,175	355,076	0.37%
Under 18	64,448,638	64,499,542	-50,904	-0.08%
18+	31,104,613	30,698,633	405,980	1.32%
Other Relatives	23,949,690	23,665,436	284,254	1.20%
Nonrelatives:	7,524,623	7,537,682	-13,059	-0.17%
Unmarried Partner	3,092,357	3,205,347	-112,990	-3.53%
Other Nonrelatives	4,432,266	4,332,335	99,931	2.31%

Before going further, I do need to qualify the table above. The 2015 ACS results did not incorporate the late 2016 downward revisions in population estimates, but the 2016 ACS results do reflect these revisions. As a result, the 2015 ACS results overstate the total resident US population by about 522 thousand. The 2015 ACS estimates for the number of households, however, would not have been impacted by the downward population revisions (if they had been known at the time), because ACS household estimates are (effectively) controlled to independent housing unit estimates. If the 2015 ACS results were adjusted to reflect the updated lower population estimates for that year, the result would be that both the average household size and the average family size (as estimated by the ACS) would be lowered for 2015. As a result, both the average household size and the average family size adjusted to reflect population revisions for 2015 increased last year.

For “young” adults (18-34 years old), the % of young adults living with parents increased to 34.25% in 2016 from 34.11% in 2015, while the % of young adults living with other relatives rose to 13.30% in 2016 from 13.20% in 2015.The % of young adults who were either (1) a householder, (2) the spouse of a household, or (3) the unmarried partner of a householder declined to 32.95% in 2016 from 33.46% in 2015.

As readers know, there are numerous and conflicting estimates of the number of and the growth of US households based on various surveys, and this “household conundrum,” while identified and for a brief bit “prioritized” by Census earlier this decade, has not gone away. However, the “latest” data from the CPS/ASEC, the CPS/HVS, and now the ACS all suggest that household growth as decelerated, for reasons that are not crystal clear but which cannot be explained by “cyclical” forces.

I’ll have more on the ACS data later this month.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2017 12:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data [today] sliced 0.8pp from 3Q GDP tracking, down to 1.7%.
emphasis added

From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 15, down from 3.0 percent on September 8. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's report on industrial production and capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.

From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2017:Q3 and 1.8% for 2017:Q4.

CR Note: Looks like weak real GDP growth in Q3, some due to the impact of the hurricanes.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2017 10:28:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Unemployment rates were higher in August in 8 states, lower in 1 state, and stable in 41 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twenty-one states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 1 state had an increase, and 28 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate, 4.4 percent, was little changed from July but was 0.5 percentage point lower than in August 2016.
...
North Dakota and Colorado had the lowest unemployment rates in August, 2.3 percent and 2.4 percent, respectively. The rate in Tennessee (3.3 percent) set a new series low. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.2 percent.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession.

The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976.

Eleven states have reached new all time lows since the end of the 2007 recession.  These eleven states are: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Idaho, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Washington, and Wisconsin.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Alaska, at 7.2%, had the highest state unemployment rate.

The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red).

Currently one state has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); Only two states and D.C. are at or above 6% (dark blue). The states are Alaska (7.2%) and New Mexico (6.3%).  D.C. is at 6.4%.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2017 09:23:00 AM

From the Fed: Industrial production and Capacity Utilization

Industrial production declined 0.9 percent in August following six consecutive monthly gains. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 3/4 percentage point. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent; storm-related effects appear to have reduced the rate of change in factory output in August about 3/4 percentage point. The manufacturing industries with the largest estimated storm-related effects were petroleum refining, organic chemicals, and plastics materials and resins.

The output of mining fell 0.8 percent in August, as Hurricane Harvey temporarily curtailed drilling, servicing, and extraction activity for oil and natural gas. The output of utilities dropped 5.5 percent, as unseasonably mild temperatures, particularly on the East Coast, reduced the demand for air conditioning.

At 104.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in August was 1.5 percent above its year-earlier level. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.8 percentage point in August to 76.1 percent, a rate that is 3.8 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2016) average.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 9.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967).

Capacity utilization at 76.1% is 3.8% below the average from 1972 to 2015 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007.

Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The second graph shows industrial production since 1967.

Industrial production decreased in August to 104.7. This is 20.2% above the recession low, and close to the pre-recession peak.

The decrease was below expectations, largely due to Hurricane Harvey.

by Calculated Risk on 9/15/2017 09:08:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.2 percent from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.2 percent from August 2016.

From the Census Bureau report:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2017, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $474.8 billion, a decrease of 0.2 percent from the previous month, and 3.2 percent above August 2016. ... The June 2017 to July 2017 percent change was revised from up 0.6 percent to up 0.3 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 0.4% in August.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 3.1% on a YoY basis.

The increase in August was below expectations, and sales in June and July were revised down.

Note: Hurricane Harvey impacted sales in August.