Friday, September 15, 2017

Q3 GDP Forecasts: Moving Down

by Bill McBride on 9/15/2017 12:25:00 PM

From Merrill Lynch:

The data [today] sliced 0.8pp from 3Q GDP tracking, down to 1.7%.
emphasis added
From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2017 is 2.2 percent on September 15, down from 3.0 percent on September 8. The forecasts of real consumer spending growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 2.7 percent and 2.6 percent, respectively, to 2.0 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively, after this morning's retail sales release from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's report on industrial production and capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.3% for 2017:Q3 and 1.8% for 2017:Q4.
CR Note: Looks like weak real GDP growth in Q3, some due to the impact of the hurricanes.