by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2012 12:45:00 PM

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q3 today.

Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $37.6 billion in the third quarter of 2012, a $2.3 billion (6.6 percent) improvement from the $35.2 billion in profits the industry reported in the third quarter of 2011. This is the 13th consecutive quarter that earnings have registered a year-over-year increase. Increased noninterest income and lower provisions for loan losses accounted for most of the year-over-year improvement in earnings.

The FDIC reported the number of problem banks declined:

Also noteworthy was a decline in the number of banks on the FDIC's "Problem List" from 732 to 694. This marked the sixth consecutive quarter that the number of "problem" banks has fallen, and the first time in three years that there have been fewer than 700 banks on the list. Total assets of "problem" institutions declined from $282 billion to $262 billion

Click on graph for larger image.

The dollar value of Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) declined from $9.5 billion in Q2 to $8.8 billion in Q3. This is the lowest level of REOs since Q1 2008. Even in good times, the FDIC insured institutions have about $2.5 billion in residential REO.

This graph shows the dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs.

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2012 10:08:00 AM

Press Release: Home Prices Rebound in Hard-Hit Atlanta, Sacramento, and the Inland Empire at the Price Recovery Accelerates in November

In November, asking home prices rose 0.8 percent month-over-month (M-o-M), seasonally adjusted–which implies an annualized growth rate of 10 percent. Year-over-year (Y-o-Y) prices increased 3.8 percent, which was also the largest yearly increase to date. Quarter-over-quarter (Q-o-Q) prices rose 2.2 percent, seasonally adjusted, another post-crisis high; in fact, prices rose 0.8 percent Q-o-Q without adjusting for seasonality (not shown in table), even though prices typically decline after the summer. Excluding foreclosures, asking prices rose 4.3 percent Y-o-Y and 1.6 percent Q-o-Q, seasonally adjusted.
...
For the first time since the housing crisis began, Atlanta and two inland California metros—Riverside-San Bernardino and Sacramento—all experienced significantly large Q-o-Q asking home price gains. Unlike other hard-hit metros such as Phoenix, Las Vegas, and Miami, prices in these metros have been slower to bounce back, declining in February and making smaller gains in August and May.
...
Nationally, rents rose 5.6 percent Y-o-Y, outpacing the national price gain of 3.8 percent. However, asking prices in 14 of the 25 largest rental markets actually rose faster than rents as the price recovery picks up.
...
“The key factors behind today’s price gains are job growth, falling vacancies, and–above all–rebounding from the huge price declines of the housing bust,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “The latest metros to join the price rebound are Atlanta, Sacramento, and Riverside-San Bernardino. Now, all of the metros that suffered most during the bust have had year-over-year price gains.”

These asking prices are SA (Seasonally Adjusted) - and adjusted for the mix of homes - and this suggests further house price increases over the next few months on a SA basis.

More from Jed Kolko, Trulia Chief Economist: Asking Price Gains Accelerate in November, but Local Differences Widen

by Calculated Risk on 12/04/2012 09:01:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Home Price Index Marks Eighth Consecutive Month of Year-Over-Year Gains

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 6.3 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. This change represents the biggest increase since June 2006 and the eighth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on a year-over-year basis. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices decreased by 0.2 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012*. Decreases in month-over-month home prices are expected as the housing market enters the offseason.
...
Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide also increased on a year-over-year basis by 5.8 percent in October 2012 compared to October 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 0.5 percent in October 2012 compared to September 2012, the eighth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that November 2012 home prices, including distressed sales, are expected to rise by 7.1 percent on a year-over-year basis from November 2011 and fall by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis from October 2012 as sales exhibit a seasonal slowdown going into the winter.
...
“The housing recovery that started earlier in 2012 continues to gain momentum," said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “The recovery is geographically broad-based with almost all markets experiencing some appreciation. Sand and energy states continue to experience the most robust appreciation and some judicial foreclosure states are even recording increasing prices.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was down 0.2% in October, and is up 6.3% over the last year.

The index is off 27% from the peak - and is up 9.6% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).

The second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has been positive for eight consecutive months suggesting house prices bottomed earlier this year on a national basis (the bump in 2010 was related to the tax credit).

This is the largest year-over-year increase since 2006.

Since this index is not seasonally adjusted, it was expected to decline on a month-to-month basis in October, and will probably stay negative on a month-to-month basis until the March 2013 report is released. The key for the next several months will be to watch the year-over-year change.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 09:07:00 PM

Tuesday economic releases:
• At 10:00 AM ET, Trulia Price & Rent Monitors for November. This is the index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

Here is another update using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in listed inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.

According to the deptofnumbers.com for (54 metro areas), overall inventory is down 22% year-over-year and probably at the lowest level since the early '00s.

This graph shows the NAR estimate of existing home inventory through October (left axis) and the HousingTracker data for the 54 metro areas through early December.

Click on graph for larger image.

Since the NAR released their revisions for sales and inventory last year, the NAR and HousingTracker inventory numbers have tracked pretty well.

On a seasonal basis, housing inventory usually bottoms in December and January and then increases through the summer. So inventory will probably decline a little further over the next month or so, before increasing again next year.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in inventory for both the NAR and HousingTracker.

HousingTracker reported that the early December listings, for the 54 metro areas, declined 21.7% from the same period last year.

The year-over-year declines will probably start to get smaller since inventory is already very low. It seems very unlikely we will see 20%+ year-over-year declines next summer, but it does appear that inventory will be very low in 2013.

by Calculated Risk on 12/03/2012 03:45:00 PM

Based on an estimate from Autodata Corp, light vehicle sales were at a 15.54 million SAAR in November. That is up 15% from November 2011, and up 9% from the sales rate last month. This is the highest level of sales since December 2007.

This was above the consensus forecast of 15.0 million SAAR (seasonally adjusted annual rate), however some of the increase was a bounce back from Hurricane Sandy that negatively impacted sales at the end of October.

This graph shows the historical light vehicle sales from the BEA (blue) and an estimate for November (red, light vehicle sales of 15.54 million SAAR from Autodata Corp).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales have averaged a 14.4 million annual sales rate this year through November, up from 12.7 million rate for the same period of 2011. Last year sales were depressed for several months (May through August) due to supply chain issues related to the tsunami in Japan.


The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate.

This shows the huge collapse in sales in the 2007 recession.

Most (or all) of the month-to-month decline in October was related to Hurricane Sandy, and some of the sharp increase this month was a bounce back.