by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 07:38:00 PM

Press conference here.

From Reuters: Euro zone, IMF reach deal on long-term Greek debt

Euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough towards releasing an urgently needed tranche of loans to the near-bankrupt economy, officials said.

After nearly 10 hours of talks at their third meeting on the issue in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed to reduce Greek debt by 40 billion euros, cutting it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, via a package of steps.

From AlphaVille: A mere three weeks later, a Greek debt deal (?)

UPDATE: Press release here: Eurogroup statement on Greece.

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 07:10:00 PM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. LPS uses September closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Up 0.1 Percent for the Month; Up 3.6 Percent Year-Over-Year

Lender Processing Services ... today released its latest LPS Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on September 2012 residential real estate transactions. The LPS HPI combines the company’s extensive property and loan-level databases to produce a repeat sales analysis of home prices as of their transaction dates every month for each of more than 15,500 U.S. ZIP codes. The LPS HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The LPS HPI is off 22.8% from the peak in June 2006. Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. LPS shows prices off 54.4% from the peak in Las Vegas, 46% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire), and barely off in Austin and Houston.

Looking at the year-over-year price change, in May, the LPS HPI was up 0.4% year-over-year, in June the index was up 0.9% year-over-year, 1.8% in July, 2.6% in August, and now 3.6% in September. This is steady improvement on a year-over-year basis. Note: Case-Shiller for September will be released tomorrow morning.

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 04:15:00 PM

LPS released their First Look report for October today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent decreased in October compared to September, and declined about 7% year-over-year. Also the percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined sharply in October and are the lowest level since August 2009.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 7.03% from 7.40% in September (delinquencies increased seasonally in September). Note: the normal rate for delinquencies is around 4.5% to 5%.

 The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 3.61% from 3.87% in September. 

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down about 10% year-over-year (400,000 fewer properties delinquent), and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 19% or 412,000 year-over-year.

The percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process is still very high, but the number of loans in the foreclosure process is starting to decline fairly quickly.

LPS will release the complete mortgage monitor for October in early December.

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	Oct 2012	Sept 2012	Oct 2011
Delinquent	7.03%	7.40%	7.58%
In Foreclosure	3.61%	3.87%	4.30%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,957,000	2,170,000	2,219,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,543,000	1,530,000	1,681,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	1,800,000	1,940,000	2,212,000
Total Properties	5,300,000	5,640,000	6,111,000

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 12:58:00 PM

A frequent topic on this blog back in 2005, 2006, 2007 and even in 2008 were FHA loans and DAPs (seller financed Down-payment Assistance Programs). With DAPs, the seller "donated" the down payment to a non-profit (for a fee of course), and the non-profit gave the down payment to the buyer.  This allowed people to get around the FHA's down payment requirement, and to buy for no money down. For nerdy details, see Tanta's DAP for UberNerds

DAPs were finally banned in 2008 after wrecking havoc on the FHA's finances.

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: FHA’s Biggest Loser: No-Money-Down Mortgages

One of the biggest reasons the Federal Housing Administration is facing severe financial woes is a problem agency officials identified and sought to correct years ago.
...
A big chunk of the losses leading to a $16.3 billion shortfall have come from programs that allowed home sellers to fund down payments via nonprofit groups that provided them to buyers as a “gift.” After trying for years, the FHA finally prevailed on Congress to shut down the programs in late 2008, but not before the agency backed billions in risky no-money-down loans as home prices were dropping fast.
...
Seller-funded down-payment assistance loans accounted for just 4% of outstanding loans at the end of September, but they represented 13% of all seriously delinquent mortgages, according to a recently released audit.

The audit said that had the FHA not allowed the programs to go forward, then the mortgage program’s $13.5 billion net worth deficit would have turned to a positive $1.77 billion.

The FHA made many bad loans in fiscal years 2008 and 2009 (from October 2007 through October 2009) when private capital left the mortgage market, and the FHA saw a huge surge in market share. With falling house prices, and low down payment loans, many of these borrowers defaulted.

However DAPs also played a significant role in negatively impacting the FHA - and that was obvious in early 2005!

by Calculated Risk on 11/26/2012 10:30:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Growth Stalls and Company Outlook Worsens

Texas factory activity was little changed in November, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, came in at 1.7, indicating output barely increased from October.

Other survey measures suggested flat manufacturing activity in November. The new orders index came in at 0.4, suggesting that demand was unchanged from October.
...
Perceptions of broader business conditions worsened in November. The general business activity index fell to -2.8, returning to negative territory. The company outlook index moved down to -4.8, registering its first negative reading since April.

Labor market indicators were mixed. The employment index edged up to 6.7 in November, with more than 20 percent of firms reporting hiring compared with 15 percent reporting layoffs. The hours worked index dipped from -5.9 to -7.1.

This was below expectations of a reading of 4.7 for the general business activity index. Later this week two more regional manufacturing surveys will be released (Richmond and Kansas City).