by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 09:24:00 PM

This is a quarterly index from the the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) and is similar to the overall housing market index (HMI). The NAHB started this index in Q4 2008, so all readings are very low. This is expected to be key a demographic over the next couple of decades - if the baby boomers can sell their current homes.

From the NAHB: Builder Confidence in the 55+ Housing Market Shows Improvement in the Second Quarter

Builder confidence in the 55+ housing market for single-family homes showed improvement in the second quarter of 2012 compared to the same period a year ago, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index more than doubled year over year from a level of 13 to 29, which is the highest second-quarter reading since the inception of the index in 2008.

The 55+ single-family HMI measures builder sentiment based on a survey that asks if current sales, prospective buyer traffic and anticipated six-month sales for that market are good, fair or poor (high, average or low for traffic). An index number below 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as poor than good. Although all index components remain below 50, they increased considerably from a year ago: Present sales more than doubled (from 12 to 30), while expected sales for the next six months increased 17 points to 35 and traffic of prospective buyers rose nine points to 22.
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“We are seeing buyers slowly return to the 55+ housing market as home prices begin to improve” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This helps unlock some of the pent-up demand from 55+ consumers who have been sitting on the sidelines until they are able to sell their current homes at a reasonable price.”

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the NAHB 55+ HMI through Q2 2012. All of the readings are very low for this index, but there has been a fairly sharp increase over the last three quarters.

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 04:15:00 PM

LPS released their Mortgage Monitor report for June today. According to LPS, 7.14% of mortgages were delinquent in June, up from 6.91% in May, and down from 7.71%% in June 2011.

LPS reports that 4.09% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down slightly from 4.17% in May, and down slightly from 4.13% in June 2011.

This gives a total of 11.23% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 2,012,000 loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1,590,000 loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2,061,000 loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 5,663,000 loans delinquent or in foreclosure in June. This is down from 6,114,000 in June 2011.

This following graph shows the total delinquent and in-foreclosure rates since 1995.

Click on graph for larger image.

The total delinquency rate has fallen to 7.14% from the peak in January 2010 of 10.97%. A normal rate is probably in the 4% to 5% range, so there is a long ways to go.

The in-foreclosure rate was at 4.09%. There are still a large number of loans in this category (about 2.06 million).

The second graph shows percent of loans in the foreclosure process by process (Judicial vs. non-judicial).

Foreclosure inventory in judicial states is 6.42%, far above the level in non-judicial states (2.41%). The national average is 4.09%. A key change is that foreclosure inventory is now declining in judicial states too. Foreclosure inventory in non-judicial states has been falling since late 2010.

The third graph shows GSE prepayment speed by current LTV.

From LPS:

The June Mortgage Monitor report ... shows that while overall mortgage prepayment activity remains stable, despite historically low rates, the federal government’s Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) has seen considerable activity since the beginning of 2012.

“For this month’s Mortgage Monitor, we looked at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac [GSE] 30-year fixed-rate loans across a variety of loan-to-value ratios,” explained Herb Blecher, senior vice president, LPS Applied Analytics. “Since the beginning of this year, high loan-to-value refinances have increased significantly. As an example, 2006 vintage GSE loans with six percent interest rates and LTV ratios between 100 and 125 percent increased from a 10 percent annualized prepayment rate at the end of 2011 to more than 40 percent in June 2012. Our data also shows that this rise in loan activity extends beyond that subsection – the same type of increase holds true across other vintages with the same characteristics.”

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 12:13:00 PM

A few comments from Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Education, on the Q2 MBA National Delinquency Survey conference call.

• The 30 day delinquency rate is back to normal (at the long term average). (This means a normal amount of loans are going delinquent each month)

• This was a slight increase in overall delinquencies (Seasonally Adjusted), and he wouldn't read too much into the increase because the seasonal adjustment might be a little off right now.

• Foreclosure inventory continues to decline. In previous quarters the decline in non-judicial state inventory was offset by increases in judicial states. The change this quarter is the non-judicial states are also a decrease in foreclosure inventory.

• There was a sharp increase in FHA foreclosure starts, and this is probably a result of the mortgage settlement.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.

The top states are Florida (13.70% in foreclosure down from 14.31% in Q1), New Jersey (7.65% down from 8.37%), Illinois (7.11% down from 7.46%), New York (6.47% up from 6.17%) and Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 13 at 6.09% down from 6.47%).

As Jay Brinkmann noted, California (3.07% down from 3.29%) and Arizona (3.24% down from 3.57%) are now a percentage point below the national average.

The second graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.

Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.18% from 3.13% in Q1. This is at about 2007 levels and around the long term average.

Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket increased to 1.22% in Q2, from 1.21% in Q1.

The 90 day bucket increased to 3.19% from 3.06%. This is still way above normal (around 0.8% would be normal according to the MBA).

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 4.27% from 4.39% and is now at the lowest level since Q1 2010.

A final comment: I asked Jay Brinkmann if he thought the pace of improvement for the foreclosure inventory would pickup - or stay at this rate (about 6 to 7 years back to normal). Mr Brinkmann said that this is now more of a judicial state problem, with states like New York and New Jersey having very high levels of foreclosure inventory, and non-judicial states (except Nevada) in much better shape.

Note: "MBA’s National Delinquency Survey covers 42.5 million loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties, representing approximately 88 percent of all “first-lien” residential mortgage loans outstanding in the United States. This quarter’s loan count saw a decrease of about 337,000 loans from the previous quarter, and a decrease of 1,378,000 loans from one year ago. Loans surveyed were reported by approximately 120 lenders, including mortgage banks, commercial banks and thrifts."

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 10:00:00 AM

The MBA reported that 11.85 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q2 2012 (delinquencies seasonally adjusted). This is up slightly from 11.79 percent in Q1 2012..

From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Increase in Latest MBA Survey

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 7.58 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2012, an increase of 18 basis points from the first quarter, but a decrease of 86 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) National Delinquency Survey.

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the second quarter was 0.96 percent, unchanged from last quarter and from one year ago. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.27 percent, down 12 basis points from the first quarter and 16 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.31 percent, a decrease of 13 basis points from last quarter and a decrease of 54 basis points from one year ago.
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Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist said, “Mortgage delinquencies were up only slightly over the last quarter. Perhaps more important than the small size of the increase, however, is the fact that it reversed the trend of fairly steady drops in delinquencies we have seen over the last year. This is consistent with the slowdown in the economy during the first half of the year and our stubbornly high unemployment rate. Whether this is just a temporary blip or a sign of a true change in direction for mortgage performance will fundamentally depend on the direction of employment over the remainder of the year.”

Note: 7.58% (SA) and 4.27% equals 11.85%.

I'll have more later after the conference call this morning.

by Calculated Risk on 8/09/2012 09:09:00 AM

The Department of Commerce reported:

[T]otal June exports of $185.0 billion and imports of $227.9 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $42.9 billion, down from $48.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $1.7 billion more than May exports of $183.3 billion. June imports were $3.5 billion less than May imports of $231.4 billion.

The trade deficit was below the consensus forecast of $47.5 billion.

The first graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through June 2012.

Click on graph for larger image.

Exports increased in June and imports decreased. Exports are 11% above the pre-recession peak and up 7% compared to June 2011; imports are just below the pre-recession peak, and up about 2% compared to June 2011.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through June.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Oil averaged $100.13 in June, down from $107.91 per barrel in May. The decline in oil prices contributed to the overall decline in the trade deficit. The trade deficit with China increased to $27.4 billion in June, up from $26.6 billion in June 2011. Once again most of the trade deficit is due to oil and China.

Exports to the euro area were $17.4 billion in June, up from $16.4 billion in June 2011; so the euro area recession didn't lead to less US exports to the euro area in June.