by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2011 12:25:00 PM

A couple of comments from MBA chief economist Jay Brinkmann on the conference call:

• The bad news is short term delinquencies increased in Q2. The not-so-bad news is long serious delinquencies declined slightly.

• Because of the high level of delinquencies, there are some questions about the accuracy of the seasonal adjustment.

• Florida has almost 25% of all loans in the U.S. in the foreclosure process. California is 2nd with 10.6%, but the percent of loans in-foreclosure in California (3.62%) is actually below the national average (4.43%).

• Judicial foreclosure states usually have the highest percentage of loans in the foreclosure process.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state and by foreclosure process. Red is for states with a judicial foreclosure process. Because the judicial process is longer, those states typically have a higher percentage of loans in the process. Nevada is an exception.

Florida, Nevada, New Jersey and Illinois are the top four states with percent of loans in the foreclosure process.

This graph shows all delinquent loans by state (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Florida and Nevada have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Ohio and Maine.

I'll post some more graphs later to show which states are seeing improvement.

Note: the MBA's National Delinquency Survey (NDS) covered "MBA’s National Delinquency Survey covers about 43.9 million first-lien mortgages on one- to four-unit residential properties" and the "The NDS is estimated to cover around 88 percent of the outstanding first-lien mortgages in the market." This gives almost 50 million total first lien mortgages or about 6.4 million delinquent or in foreclosure.

The third graph shows the number of loans delinquent in each state (as opposed to the percent). California is the largest state, so it is no surprise that the number of delinquent loans is very high (I'd expect California to always be #1). In that sense this graph is misleading - in reality California is in about the same shape as Indiana and Rhode Island (previous graph).

Florida has 7.6% of all loans, but almost 25% of all loans in-foreclosure and 18% of all seriously delinquent loans. In most ways, dividing this by states is arbitrary - except the foreclosure process matters.

Earlier:
• MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies increased slightly in Q2

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2011 10:30:00 AM

The MBA reported that 12.87 percent of mortgage loans were either one payment delinquent or in the foreclosure process in Q2 2011 (seasonally adjusted). This is up slightly from 12.84 percent in Q1 2011.

From the MBA: Delinquencies Rise, Foreclosures Fall in Latest MBA Mortgage Delinquency Survey

The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 8.44 percent of all loans outstanding as of the end of the second quarter of 2011, an increase of 12 basis points from the first quarter of 2011, and a decrease of 141 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. ...

The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 4.43 percent, down 9 basis points from the first quarter and 14 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 7.85 percent, a decrease of 25 basis points from last quarter, and a decrease of 126 basis points from the second quarter of last year.

"While overall mortgage delinquencies increased only slightly between the first and second quarters of this year, it is clear that the downward trend we saw through most of 2010 has stopped. Mortgage delinquencies are no longer improving and are now showing some signs of worsening," said Jay Brinkmann, MBA's Chief Economist. "The good news is the continued decline in long-term delinquencies, those mortgages that are three payments or more past due. The bad news is that drop is offset by an increase in newly delinquent loans one payment past due."

Note: 8.44% (SA) and 4.43% equals 12.87%.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of loans delinquent by days past due.

Loans 30 days delinquent increased to 3.46% from 3.35% in Q1. This is probably related to the increase in the unemployment rate.

Delinquent loans in the 60 day bucket increased slightly to 1.37% from 1.35%.

There was a slight decrease in the 90+ day delinquent bucket. This decreased to 3.61% from 3.65% in Q1 2011.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased to 4.43%.

So short term delinquencies ticked up, and the 90+ day and in-foreclosure rates declined. I'll have more later after the conference call this morning.

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2011 08:30:00 AM

This is a composite index from the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity improved in July

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.06 in July from –0.38 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved in July; only the sales, orders, and inventories category deteriorated from June.
...
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.29 in July from –0.54 in June. July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

This index suggests the economy was still growing in July, but below trend.

Weekend:
• Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 21st
• Some preliminary thoughts on Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole Speech

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2011 08:08:00 PM

For discussion:

• From al Jazeera: Libya Live Blog. At 8 PM ET:

Al Jazeera's Zeina Khodr is in Green Square:

"There's a party in the Libyan capital tonight. The people are in charge of the city. They've decided the square is now called Martyr's Square, the original name/.

"They're shouting "we're free" and shooting at a poster of Gaddafi."

• From Reuters Top News

• From the NY Times: Latest Updates on the Battle for Tripoli

• From the Telegraph: Libya live

• From the WSJ: Live Blog: Libyan Rebels Pour Into Tripoli

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 21st
• Some preliminary thoughts on Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole Speech

by Calculated Risk on 8/21/2011 05:00:00 PM

"Split-Rated" is a new song from Curtis Threadneedle, Merle Hazard and Marcy Shaffer. (Merle says they have another song in the works).

Lyrics by Curtis and Marcy. Merle wrote and arranged the music, performed by Curtis Threadneedle with Merle's band including Wolf Jackson (guitar) and Frances Cunningham (mandolin).

Websites: Curtis Threadneedle, Marcy Shaffer, and Merle Hazard. Some other songs include Merle's "Double Dippin" and Marcy's "Bearish"

Earlier:
• Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)
• Schedule for Week of Aug 21st
• Some preliminary thoughts on Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole Speech