Monday, August 22, 2011

Chicago Fed: Economic growth below trend in July

by Calculated Risk on 8/22/2011 08:30:00 AM

This is a composite index from the Chicago Fed: Index shows economic activity improved in July

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index increased to –0.06 in July from –0.38 in June. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index improved in July; only the sales, orders, and inventories category deteriorated from June.
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The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.29 in July from –0.54 in June. July’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend.
This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

According to the Chicago Fed:
A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.
This index suggests the economy was still growing in July, but below trend.

Weekend:
Summary for Week ending August 19th (with plenty of graphs)
Schedule for Week of Aug 21st
Some preliminary thoughts on Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole Speech