by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 09:38:00 PM

Joe Nocera at the NY Times has a strange tale: In Prison for Taking a Liar Loan

Mr. Engle’s is a tale worth telling for a number of reasons, not the least of which is its punch line. Was Mr. Engle convicted of running a crooked subprime company? Was he a mortgage broker who trafficked in predatory loans? A Wall Street huckster who sold toxic assets?

No. Charlie Engle wasn’t a seller of bad mortgages. He was a borrower. And the “mortgage fraud” for which he was prosecuted was something that literally millions of Americans did during the subprime bubble. Supposedly, he lied on two liar loans.

This sounds more like "fraud for housing" than "fraud for profit" - although from Nocera's description, it doesn't sound much like fraud at all (and the reasons Engle was investigated are bizarre). Read the story ... but it is actually rare for the government to prosecute "fraud for housing" cases. Why this one?

Also this story prompted me to reread Tanta's brilliant piece: Unwinding the Fraud for Bubbles

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 07:07:00 PM

Irresponsible:
Behavior resulting in
No consequences.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Advantage National Bank Group, Elk Grove Village, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of The Bank of Commerce, Wood Dale, Illinois

As of December 31, 2010, The Bank of Commerce had approximately $163.1 million in total assets and $161.4 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $41.9 million. ... The Bank of Commerce is the 26th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the third in Illinois

Friday is here.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 03:14:00 PM

The BLS reported earlier today that state unemployment rates were generally unchanged in February. A few states showed strong increases in employment led by California. The LA Times reported: California adds nearly 100,000 jobs in February

In February, the Golden State added nearly 100,000 new jobs, the highest monthly increase since the current record system began in 1990, state officials said Friday. ... The number of new jobs created in February alone was almost as high as the total created for the previous 11 months, 99,800, the EDD said.

Other states with significant increases were Pennsylvania (+23,700), Florida
and Texas (+22,700 each), Illinois (+17,600), North Carolina (+17,400), South Carolina (+16,400), Massachusetts (+15,400), Georgia (+14,900) and Oregon (+9,800). Unfortunately a number of states saw significant declines in employment too; Kansas (-12,800), Missouri (-10,100) and Washington (-8,500).

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed in February. Twenty-seven states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases, 7 states registered rate increases, and 16 states had no change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to register the highest unemployment rate among the states, 13.6 percent in February. The states with the next highest rates were California, 12.2 percent, Florida, 11.5 percent, and Rhode Island,
11.2 percent.

One state, Colorado, set a new series high, 9.3 percent.

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). If there is no blue, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate.

The auto states - led by Michigan - seem to have seen the most improvement (blue area).

Four states are still at the recession maximum (no improvement): Colorado (new high for 2nd month in a row), Idaho, Louisiana, and New Mexico.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 12:25:00 PM

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), real GDP is now slightly above the pre-recession peak. Real GDP (in 2005 dollars) was at $13,380.7 billion in Q4, just 0.13% above the $13,363.5 billion in Q4 2007.

However real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is still 0.25% below the pre-recession peak. For a discussion on GDI, see from Fed economist Jeremy Nalewaik, “Income and Product Side Estimates of US Output Growth,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. An excerpt:

The U.S. produces two conceptually identical official measures of its economic output, currently called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). These two measures have shown markedly different business cycle fluctuations over the past twenty five years, with GDI showing a more-pronounced cycle than GDP. ...

In discussing the information content of these two sets of estimates, the confusion often starts with the nomenclature. GDP can mean either the true output variable of interest, or an estimate of that output variable based on the expenditure approach. Since these are two very different things, using “GDP” for both is confusing. Furthermore, since GDI has a different name than GDP, it may not be initially clear that GDI measures the same concept as GDP, using the equally valid income approach.

Note: The following graph is constructed as a percent of the peak for both GDP/GDI. This shows when GDP/GDI has bottomed - and when GDP/GDI has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph is for real GDP (blue) and real GDI (red) through Q4 2010. This shows real GDP is back to the pre-recession peak. However real Gross Domestic Income (GDI) is still slightly below the pre-recession peak as of Q4 2010. So it now appears that the U.S. economy will reach the pre-recession peak in Q1 2011.

Of course other measures of the economy - especially payroll employment - are still far below the pre-recession peak.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 09:55:00 AM

The final March Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined to 67.5 from the preliminary March reading of 68.2 - and down from 77.5 in February. This is the lowest level since November 2009.

Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.

This was below the consensus forecast of 68.0.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices.

With higher gasoline prices and the scary world news, a low reading isn't that surprising.

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2011 08:52:00 AM

From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2010 (third estimate)

Real GDP growth was revised up to 3.1% in Q4 2010, up from the 2nd estimate of 2.8%. The upward revision came mostly from changes in private inventories; in the 3rd estimate, changes in private inventories subtracted 3.42 percentage points from growth, compared to 3.7 percentage points in the previous estimate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The current quarter is in blue.

The dashed line is the median growth rate of 3.05%. The last quarter was around trend growth - disappointing with all the slack in the economy.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 10:43:00 PM

Here is the weekly update on hotels from HotelNewsNow.com: STR: U.S. ADR on the rise

“The industry’s performance seems to be strengthening after Valentine's Day and heading into Spring Break season,” said Steve Hood, VP of research at STR. “Last week was the fifth straight week with ADR increases in the 3% range. It was also the first full week since November with a running 28-day revenue per available room percent change in the double digits.”

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy increased 5.1% to 64.6% and its RevPAR finished the week up 9.0% to US$66.01.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate.

The 2011 occupancy rate (red) was fairly low in January and February, but appears to be improving recently - and is now closer to the rate in 2008 than in 2010.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 07:45:00 PM

From S&P via Reuters:

Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of Portugal today to 'BBB' from 'A-' (the 'A-2' short-term sovereign credit rating is unchanged). The long- and short-term ratings on Portugal remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. We believe that this rating action could have a negative impact on the creditworthiness of the five Portuguese banks, and two related subsidiaries, that we rate ...

No surprise ... a bailout seems imminent.

Also from the WSJ: Portugal's Woes Turn Spotlight on Spain

Portugal's admission that it will probably need a financial bailout raises a question that will shape the outcome of the euro zone's debt crisis: Is Spain next?

The cost of saving Spain, a €1.1 trillion ($1.56 trillion) economy, would dwarf previous bailouts and could test the financial strength of Europe as a whole.

But if Spain can continue to repair investors' trust, as in recent weeks, then Europe stands a chance of containing the debt crisis to three countries ... whose combined economies are half the size of Spain's.

I suppose there are two key questions: 1) Is Spain next? and 2) will Ireland, Greece, or Portugal default (and what would be the impact of a default)?

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 05:15:00 PM

The Census Bureau has released housing occupancy and vacancy data for all 50 states and D.C. (and Puerto Rico).

Here is a spreadsheet for the 50 states (and D.C.) including the 2000 and 1990 Census data. Note: Adjusted data is using this analysis (ht Tom Lawler)

The highest vacancy rates were for Maine (22.8%) and Vermont (20.5%), but we have to be careful using this data - those states always have a high vacancy rate on April 1st because of all the vacation homes. So we need to compare to previous Census data to try to estimate the excess number of vacant houses.

In future releases, the Census Bureau will release more housing data: "Later reports from the 2010 Census will show the vacancy status for all vacant housing units and will also show whether occupied units were owned or rented." That data will help estimate the number of excess vacant housing units.

The table below is a summary (and raised questions about the data). It will be a few years before analysis is published on the accuracy of the Census housing data, but Census 2010 was probably more complete than the earlier data (that has been the trend).

Census	1-Apr-90	1-Apr-00	1-Apr-10
Housing Stock, as reported
Occupied	91,947,410	105,480,101	116,716,292
Vacant	10,316,268	10,424,540	14,988,438
Total	102,263,678	115,904,641	131,704,730
Housing Stock, Adjusted (1)
Occupied	92,434,731	105,828,185	116,716,292
Vacant	10,802,164	10,775,847	14,988,438
Total	103,245,409	116,586,458	131,704,730
Increase (adjusted)		13,341,049	15,118,272
Units Completed
1 to 4 units		11,122,000	12,700,500
5+ Units		2,237,400	2,723,600
Manufactured Homes		2,854,100	1,313,700
Total Added		16,213,500	16,737,800
Demolitions per year (calculated)		287,245	161,953
(1) http://www.census.gov/pred/www/rpts/O.3.PDF

Using the adjusted Census data for 1990 and 2000, we can compare the increase in housing units to the number of housing units completed. The difference is an estimate of demolitions (or otherwise destroyed units).

We can compare the increase from 2000 to 2010 of 15.1 million total units to the 16.7 million total completions (assuming no adjustment to 2010). That suggests about 167 thousand demolitions per year. But the Census probably undercounted some - so the demolitions would even be less. That is lower than most estimates of demolitions. Oh well ... this is a start.

For some fun from the Census Bureau:

The U.S. mean center of population, as of April 1, 2010, is near Plato, Mo., an incorporated village in Texas County. The U.S. Census Bureau calculated this point as the place where an imaginary, flat, weightless and rigid map of the United States would balance perfectly if all 308,745,538 residents counted in the 2010 Census were of identical weight.

Ever since Chestertown, Md., was determined to be the center of population after the first census was conducted in 1790, the center of population has told the story of America, illustrating how we’ve grown as a nation. It follows a trail across the country ─ across Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana and Missouri ─ that reflects our history of settling the frontier, manifest destiny, waves of immigration and regional migration.

Note: This is 23.4 miles from Edgar Springs, Mo., the 2000 mean center of population. Here is the data and maps on Centers of Population for the 2010 Census

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2011 02:42:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve:

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will hold press briefings four times per year to present the Federal Open Market Committee's current economic projections and to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions.

In 2011, the Chairman's press briefings will be held at 2:15 p.m. following FOMC decisions scheduled on April 27, June 22 and November 2. The briefings will be broadcast live on the Federal Reserve's website. For these meetings, the FOMC statement is expected to be released at around 12:30 p.m., one hour and forty-five minutes earlier than for other FOMC meetings.

The introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication. The Federal Reserve will continue to review its communications practices in the interest of ensuring accountability and increasing public understanding.