by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2010 04:10:00 PM

From Reuters: US Delays Decision on China Yuan Manipulation

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said on Saturday he was delaying an April 15 report on whether China manipulates its currency but pledged to press for a more flexible Chinese currency policy.
...
Delaying the report -- something that happened regularly in prior administrations -- will push the decision to well after [Chinese President Hu Jintao]'s visit [to the U.S.].

This sure sounds like currency manipulation: "China's continued maintenance of a currency peg has required increasingly large volumes of currency intervention."
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, April 3, 2010

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2010 01:10:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. Changes and comments from surferdude808:

With no failures this week and the OCC and FDIC not releasing any actions until the second half of the month, the Unofficial Problem Bank List did not undergo many changes this week.

There are 683 institutions on the list with aggregate assets of $361 billion. Four institutions were added this week including First Bank, Creve Coeur, MO ($10.5 billion); and Preferred Bank, Los Angeles, CA ($1.3 billion Ticker: PFBC).

Prompt Corrective Action Orders were issued this week against two institutions on the list -- Midwest Bank and Trust Company ($3.4 billion) and TierOne Bank ($2.9 billion).

Removals include New Resource Bank ($159 million) as its enforcement action was terminated according to a company press release and the Bank of Tacoma ($39 million), which was acquired by Northwest Bank via an unassisted acquisition back in February.

We also had two institutions that were listed twice; thanks to reader MS for noting this error.

The list is compiled from regulator press releases or from public news sources (see Enforcement Action Type link for source). The FDIC data is released monthly with a delay, and the Fed and OTC data is more timely. The OCC data is a little lagged. Credit: surferdude808.

See description below table for Class and Cert (and a link to FDIC ID system).

For a full screen version of the table click here.

The table is wide - use scroll bars to see all information!

NOTE: Columns are sortable - click on column header (Assets, State, Bank Name, Date, etc.)



Class: from FDIC

The FDIC assigns classification codes indicating an institution's charter type (commercial bank, savings bank, or savings association), its chartering agent (state or federal government), its Federal Reserve membership status (member or nonmember), and its primary federal regulator (state-chartered institutions are subject to both federal and state supervision). These codes are:

N National chartered commercial bank supervised by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency

SM State charter Fed member commercial bank supervised by the Federal Reserve

NM State charter Fed nonmember commercial bank supervised by the FDIC

SA State or federal charter savings association supervised by the Office of Thrift Supervision

SB State charter savings bank supervised by the FDIC

Cert: This is the certificate number assigned by the FDIC used to identify institutions and for the issuance of insurance certificates. Click on the number and the Institution Directory (ID) system "will provide the last demographic and financial data filed by the selected institution".

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2010 08:57:00 AM

Here is a graph of the unemployment rate seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted - plus, by request, two more graphs of the duration of unemployment.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the calculated unemployment rate - both seasonally adjusted (SA) and not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

Some sites noted the NSA rate was "only" 9.5% when the SA moved above 10% last October. Other sites noted that the NSA rate had hit 10.6% in January. Both sites were correct - but there is a clear seasonal pattern for employment, so the SA unemployment rate is the one to use. Note: the SA rate will be above the NSA rate in April.

ALSO - the graph above uses the calculated unemployment rate (unrounded). For March, the calculated unemployment rate was 9.749% up from 9.687% in February. Both were rounded to 9.7% ...

And on duration of unemployment, by request:

This graph shows the duration of unemployment as a percent of the civilian labor force (line graph unstacked). The graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories as provided by the BLS: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.

This really shows the change in turnover - there was more turnover in the '70s and '80s, since the 'less than 5 weeks' category was much higher as a percent of the civilian labor force than in recent years. This changed in the early '90s - perhaps as a result of more careful hiring practices or changes in demographics or maybe other reasons - but if the level of normal turnover was the same as in the '80s, the current unemployment rate would probably be the highest since WWII.

The last graph is a repeat, but the information is stacked in reverse order.

In March 2010, there were a record 6.55 million people unemployed for 27 weeks or more, or 4.3% of the labor force.

For more on duration (and possible causes) see my post yesterday: Duration of Unemployment

Earlier employment posts yesterday:

March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Diffusion Index and Temporary Help

Replay of a Q&A with BLS is here.

by Calculated Risk on 4/03/2010 12:18:00 AM

From the Daily Show: "If you don't return the Census forms, an army of Census thugs will come to your door up to 6 times ..."

The Daily Show With Jon Stewart	Mon - Thurs 11p / 10c
2010 Census
www.thedailyshow.com
Daily Show Full Episodes Political Humor Health Care Reform

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 07:48:00 PM

Martin Wolf and Chris Giles at the Financial Times interviewed Larry Summers yesterday. Here is the transcript.

Summers was asked about China, the U.S. economy, the deficit, taxes, financial regulation and more. A brief excerpt (with permission):

Chris Giles: Do you see the economy, the growth being self sustaining now? Or are we on a process whereby the time the fiscal money runs out, are you confident that we’re then in a self sustaining growth?

Larry Summers: I think the economy appears to be moving towards escape, quite clearly moving towards escape velocity. You hear a lot less talk of W-shaped recoveries and double-dips than you did six months ago. And there are obviously uncertainties, there obviously can be new shocks, but I think one has to see the performance of the economy against the backdrop of a major economic downturn associated not with the sharp tightening of monetary policy but with the collapse in asset prices.

And if you use as a standard for judging the US economy the aftermath of financial crises of the kind summarised in the Rogoff and Reinhart book, what I think you have to be impressed by is that the timetable to major action was much shorter than is historically normal and that the process of recovery seems to be more sustained. It seems to have started earlier and more vigorously than was common in that category of problems.

I think the concern for a double dip (something I think the economy will avoid) are mostly for the 2nd half of 2010 as the fiscal stimulus subsides.

On China, Summers reiterated the G20 commitment for a more balanced global economy and he argued that exchange rates play a crucial role. I expect China to allow their currency to appreciate this year (I've seen estimates in the 5% to 10% range).

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 05:08:00 PM

First, I asked on the BLS live chat today about adjusting for the temporary 2010 Census hiring. The Census hiring is reported not seasonally adjusted (NSA), and usually we don't want to mix NSA and SA numbers. The BLS experts explained they don't include the 48K Census hiring in the NSA numbers, and they add the Census numbers in after making the seasonal adjustment. So it is correct to report the headline payroll number was 162K, and 114k (ex-Census). This will really be important in May when the 2010 Census is expected to boost employment by as much at 500k! These are real payroll jobs, but all of these are temporary jobs and will be lost over the 2nd half of 2010.

Here are a couple more graphs based on data in the employment report ...

Diffusion Index

The BLS diffusion index for total private employment increased to 60.0 from 50.0 in February. This is the highest level since 2006. For manufacturing, the diffusion index is at 54.9.

Think of this as a measure of how widespread job gains are across industries. The further from 50 (above or below), the more widespread the job losses or gains reported by the BLS. From the BLS:

Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.

This fits with the headline payroll report and is a positive.

Temporary Workers

From the BLS report:

Temporary help services added 40,000 jobs in March. Since September 2009, temporary help services employment has risen by 313,000.

This graph is a little complicated (note: explanation same as last month - repeated for clarity).

The red line is the three month average change in temporary help services (left axis). This is shifted four months into the future.

The blue line (right axis) is the three month average change in total employment (excluding temporary help services).

Unfortunately the data on temporary help services only goes back to 1990, but it does appear that temporary help leads employment by about four months. When we discussed this graph last year, temporary help suggested positive job growth in December 2009. But with revisions - the graph has been shifted a few months.

The thinking is that before companies hire permanent employees following a recession, employers will first increase the hours worked of current employees (hours worked declined in March) and also hire temporary employees. Since the number of temporary workers increased sharply recently, some people think this might be signaling the beginning of an employment recovery.

However, there has been some evidence of a shift by employers to more temporary workers, and the saying may become "We are all temporary now!", so use this increase with caution.

Also the temporary hiring for the Census should be excluded from this graph in the future - and I will exclude the Census numbers starting next month.

I doubt we will see the 300K per month net payroll jobs (ex-Census) over the next few months that this graph seems to suggest.

Earlier employment posts today:

March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Employment-Population Ratio, Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks

Duration of Unemployment

Replay of a Q&A with BLS is here.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 01:59:00 PM

From the American Bankruptcy Institute: March Consumer Bankruptcy Filings Reach Highest Monthly Total Since 2005 Bankruptcy Overhaul

The 149,268 consumer bankruptcies filed in March represented the highest monthly consumer filing total since Congress overhauled the Bankruptcy Code in 2005, according to the American Bankruptcy Institute (ABI) relying on data from the National Bankruptcy Research Center (NBKRC). The March filing total represented a 34 percent increase from the February filing total of 111,693 and a 23 percent increase from March 2009 total of 121,413. Chapter 13 filings constituted 25 percent of all consumer cases in March, representing a 2 percent decrease from February.

“The sustained economic pressures of unemployment coupled with high pre-existing debt burdens are a formula for consumer filings to surpass 1.5 million filings,” said ABI Executive Director Samuel J. Gerdano. “As consumers continue to look to bankruptcy for financial shelter, annual filings will likely equal those averaged in the years leading up to the Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the non-business bankruptcy filings by quarter using monthly data from the ABI and previous quarterly data from USCourts.gov.

Note: The NY Times uses a different source that puts the March bankruptcy filings at 158,141.

The ABI's forecast for over 1.5 million filings is at about the same level as prior to when the banker friendly "Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act of 2005" (BAPCPA) took effect - and an increase from the just over 1.4 million filings in 2004. I think the ABI forecast is low ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 12:53:00 PM

In the previous post I noted that according to the BLS there are a record 6.55 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.3% of the civilian workforce.

Here are two graphs that show the level of long term unemployed by duration.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the number of unemployed in four categories as provided by the BLS: less than 5 week, 6 to 14 weeks, 15 to 26 weeks, and 27 weeks or more.

Note: The BLS reports 15+ weeks, so the 15 to 26 weeks number was calculated.

The second graph shows the same information as a percent of the civilian labor force.

It appears there was more turnover in the '70s and '80s, since the 'less than 5 weeks' category was much higher as a percent of the civilian labor force than in recent years. This changed in the early '90s - perhaps as a result of more careful hiring practices or changes in demographics or maybe other reasons - but if the level of normal turnover was the same as in the '80s, the current unemployment rate would probably be the highest since WWII.

What really makes the current period stand out is the number of people (and percent) that have been unemployed for 27 weeks or more. In the early '80s, the 27 weeks or more unemployed peaked at 2.9 million or 2.6% of the civilian labor force.

In March 2010, there were 6.55 million people unemployed for 27 weeks or more, or 4.3% of the labor force. This is significantly higher than during other periods.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart made a couple of key points on Wednesday:

There are two key types of match inefficiency. One is geographic mismatch. In 2008, the percentage of individuals living in a county or state different than the previous year was the lowest recorded in more than 50 years of data. People may be reluctant to relocate for a new job if the value of their house has declined. In addition, many who would like to move are under water in their mortgage or can't sell their homes.

The second inefficiency is skills mismatch. In simple terms, the skills people have don't match the jobs available. Coming out of this recession there may be a more or less permanent change in the composition of jobs.

Both of these mismatches are contributing to the long term unemployment problem - and the housing bubble was a direct cause of both. Usually people can move freely in the U.S. to pursue employment (geographic mobility), but many people are tied to an anchor (their home). And many workers went into the construction trades and acquired skills that are not easily transferable. Both of these issues make the long term unemployment problem a difficult challenge.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 10:12:00 AM

Here are a few more graphs based on the employment report ...

Employment-Population Ratio

The Employment-Population ratio ticked up slightly to 58.6% in March, after plunging since the start of the recession. This is about the same level as in 1983.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.

Note: the graph doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

The general upward trend from the early '60s was mostly due to women entering the workforce.

The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 64.9% (the percentage of the working age population in the labor force). This is at the level of the early 80s. Many of these people will return to the labor force when the employment picture improves - and that will keep the unemployment rate elevated unless net hiring picks up dramatically.

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes re-
ferred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased to 9.1 million in March.
These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back
or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The number of workers only able to find part time jobs (or have had their hours cut for economic reasons) increased sharply to 9.1 million.

The all time record of 9.2 million was set in October. This suggests the increase last month was not weather related - and is not a good sign.

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

The blue line is the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more. The red line is the same data as a percent of the civilian workforce.

According to the BLS, there are a record 6.55 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks (and still want a job). This is a record 4.3% of the civilian workforce. (note: records started in 1948)

The number of long term unemployed is one of the key stories of this recession.

Although the headline number of 162,000 payroll jobs was a positive (this is 114,000 after adjusting for Census 2010 hires), the underlying details were mixed. The positives: the unemployment rate was steady, the employment-population ratio ticked up slightly (after plunging sharply), and average hours increased (might have been impacted by the snow in February).

But a near record number of part time workers (for economic reasons), a record number of unemployed for more than 26 weeks, and a decline in average hourly wages are all negatives.

I'll have even more later ...

Earlier employment post today:

March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs of unemployment rate and a comparison to previous recessions.

Replay of a Q&A with BLS experts is here.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2010 09:18:00 AM

Note: See March Employment Report: 162K Jobs Added, 9.7% Unemployment Rate for graphs. I'll post more graphs after the chat.

The BLS will host a live chat starting at 9:30 AM ET. You can follow the chat below (and ask questions).

After the discussion, the chat will be available for replay.