by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2009 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 352 thousand. This is essentially the same as the revised rate of 351 thousand in March.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows monthly new home sales (NSA - Not Seasonally Adjusted).

Note the Red columns for 2009. This is the second lowest sales for April since the Census Bureau started tracking sales in 1963. (NSA, 33 thousand new homes were sold in March 2009; the record low was 32 thousand in April 1982).

As the graph indicates, sales in April 2009 were substantially worse than the previous years.

The second graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions for the last 45 years. New Home sales have fallen off a cliff.

Sales of new one-family houses in April 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 352,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 0.3 percent (±14.5%)* above the revised March rate of 351,000, but is 34.0 percent (±11.0%) below the April 2008 estimate of 533,000.

And another long term graph - this one for New Home Months of Supply.

There were 10.1 months of supply in April - significantly below the all time record of 12.4 months of supply set in January.

The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 297,000. This represents a supply of 10.1months at the current sales rate.

The final graph shows new home inventory.

Note that new home inventory does not include many condos (especially high rise condos), and areas with significant condo construction will have much higher inventory levels.

It appears the months-of-supply for inventory has peaked, and there is some chance that sales of new homes has bottomed for this cycle - but we won't know for many months. However any recovery in sales will likely be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale. I'll have more ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2009 08:30:00 AM

Another week, another record for continued claims.

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending May 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 623,000, a decrease of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 636,000. The 4-week moving average was 626,750, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 629,750.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 16 was 6,788,000, an increase of 110,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 6,678,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

Continued claims are now at 6.79 million - an all time record. This is 5.1% of covered employment.

Note: continued claims peaked at 5.4% of covered employment in 1982 and 7.0% in 1975. So this isn't a record as a percent of covered employment.

The four-week average decreased this week by 3,000, and is now 32,000 below the peak of 7 weeks ago. There is a reasonable chance that claims have peaked for this cycle, but it is still too early to be sure, and if so, continued claims should peak soon.

The level of initial claims (over 623 thousand) is still very high, indicating significant weakness in the job market.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2009 12:22:00 AM

From the WaPo: U.S. Weighs Single Agency to Regulate Banking Industry

Senior administration officials are considering the creation of a single agency to regulate the banking industry ...

They favor vesting the Federal Reserve with new powers as a systemic risk regulator, with broad responsibility for detecting threats to the financial system. The powers would include oversight of previously unregulated markets, such as the derivatives trade, and of market participants such as hedge funds.

Officials also favor the creation of a new agency to enforce laws protecting consumers of financial products such as mortgages and credit cards.
...
Among these ideas is the creation of a single agency to regulate banks. The new regulator would assume responsibility for the safety and soundness of banks, currently divided among the Fed and three other agencies: the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the Office of Thrift Supervision and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. The OCC and the OTS would probably disappear, while the Fed and the FDIC would retain other responsibilities.
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Officials also are considering giving the FDIC the power to seize large financial firms, such as the parent companies of banks, to prevent their collapse.

Another potential problem was that many banks and mortgage lenders were regulated by the states. See Conference of State Bank Regulators (CSBS) Update: Many state regulators did an excellent job (I was in contact with several in 2005) - however in making regulatory changes, we need to be aware of the role of the states.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 08:39:00 PM

From the WSJ: Plan to Buy Banks' Bad Loans Founders

The Legacy Loans Program [LLP], being crafted by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., [as] part of the $1 trillion Public Private Investment Program [PPIP] ... is stalling and may soon be put on hold, according to people familiar with the matter.
...
PPIP was to be split between the FDIC program, which would buy whole loans, and one run by the Treasury Department focusing on securities. Treasury is expected to push ahead with its plan -- the larger and more substantial of the two -- and could begin purchases sometime this summer.

Also FDIC Chairwoman Sheila Bair said today that banks would not be allowed to use the PPIP to buy their own assets. But she didn't rule out banks buying assets from each other. From Rolfe Winkler writing at Naked Capitalism: FDIC Won't Rule Out Banks as Buyers of Toxic Assets

Below, I've transcribed Bair's full response to the question she was asked about PPIP....

No [banks] will not be able to bid on their own assets. I think there has been some confusion about that....There will be no structure where we would allow banks to bid on their own assets. I think there have been separate issues about whether banks can be buyers on other bank assets and I think that's an issue that we continue to look at.

This is probably OK if a healthy bank is a buyer only and doesn't sell any assets using the PPIP. But banks shouldn't be both buyers and sellers.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 07:01:00 PM

Earlier we discussed the rising ten year yield (treasury sell-off) and the impact on mortgage rates ... and here is some more interest rate news: the yield curve (ten year yield minus two year yield) is at record levels.

From Bloomberg: Yield Curve Steepens to Record as Debt Sales Surge

The difference in yields between Treasury two- and 10-year notes widened to a record on concern surging sales of U.S. debt will overwhelm the Federal Reserve’s efforts to keep borrowing costs low.

The so-called yield curve steepened to 2.75 percentage points, surpassing the previous record of 2.74 percentage points set on Aug. 13, 2003.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the difference between the ten- and two-year yields.

Usually a steep yield curve precedes a period of decent growth, but several analysts suggest the current ten year sell-off is due to concerns about increased Treasury issuance to finance the deficit. Whatever the reason, this is a challenge for the Fed to keep mortgage rates low.

NOTE: For amusement, check out this New Yorker cartoon by David Sipress: "Wasn't that Paul Krugman?"

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 04:13:00 PM

From the WSJ: Bondholders Push GM to Brink of Bankruptcy

General Motors Corp. bondholders soundly rejected a debt-swap offer critical to the auto maker's survival, pushing the company closer to a bankruptcy filing that could come in the next few days.

Not a surprise.

And by popular demand ...

Click on graph for larger image in new window. The first graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears". Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

The second graph compares four significant bear markets: the Dow during the Great Depression, the NASDAQ, the Nikkei, and the current S&P 500. See Doug's: "The Mega-Bear Quartet and L-Shaped Recoveries".

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 02:30:00 PM

With the Ten Year Treasury yield hitting 3.7% today, mortgage rates will be increasing.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the relationship between the Ten Year yield (x-axis) and the 30 year mortgage rate (y-axis, monthly from Freddie Mac) since 1971. The relationship isn't perfect, but the correlation is very high.

Based on this historical data, a Ten Year yield at 3.7% suggests a 30 year mortgage rate of around 5.6%.

The second graph compares the weekly 30 year fixed rate conforming rate from Freddie Mac, and the 10 year treasury yield. The black line is the spread between the two rates.

As the Ten Year yield increased earlier this year, the spread decreased, and mortgage rates only moved up slightly.

However the spread has reached the lower end of the range, and the recent increase in the Ten Year yield will push up mortgage rates.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 12:13:00 PM

To add to the earlier post, here is another way to look at existing homes sales: Monthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA):

This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009. Continuing the recent trend, sales (NSA) were lower in April 2009 than in April 2008.

A significant percentage of recent sales were foreclosure resales, and although these are real sales, I think existing home sales could fall even further when foreclosure resales start to decline sometime in the future.

The second graph shows inventory by month starting in 2004.

Inventory in April 2009 was below the levels in April 2007 and 2008 (this is the 3rd consecutive month with inventory levels below 2 years ago). Inventory levels have been below the year ago level for nine consecutive months.

It is important to watch inventory levels very carefully. If you look at the 2005 inventory data, instead of staying flat for most of the year (like the previous bubble years), inventory continued to increase all year. That was one of the key signs that led me to call the top in the housing market!

Note: there is probably a substantial shadow inventory – homeowners wanting to sell, but waiting for a better market - so existing home inventory levels will probably stay elevated for some time. There are also reports of REOs being held off the market, so inventory is probably under reported.

The third graph shows the year-over-year change in existing home inventory.

If the trend of declining year-over-year inventory levels continues in 2009 that will be a positive for the housing market. Prices will probably continue to fall until the months of supply reaches more normal levels (in the 6 to 8 month range comparted to the current 10.2 months), and that will take some time.

I'll have more on Existing Home sales tomorrow after New Home sales are released.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 10:58:00 AM

The FDIC released the Q1 Quarterly Banking Profile today. The FDIC listed 305 banks with $220.0 billion in assets as “problem” banks in Q1, up from 252 and $159.4 billion in assets in Q4.

Note: Not all problem banks will fail - and not all failures will be from the problem bank list - but this shows the problem is significant and still growing.

Here are two graphs from the FDIC:

And on the Deposit Insurance Fund:

The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) decreased by 24.7 percent ($4.3 billion) during the first quarter to $13,007 million (unaudited). Accrued assessment income added $2.6 billion to the DIF during the quarter. Interest earned combined with realized gains and unrealized losses on securities added $17 million to the DIF. Operating and other expenses net of other revenue reduced the fund by $264 million. The reduction in the DIF was primarily due to a $6.6 billion increase in loss provisions for actual and anticipated insured institution failures.

The DIF’s reserve ratio equaled 0.27 percent on March 31, 2009, down from 0.36 percent at December 31, 2008, and 1.19 percent a year ago. The March 31, 2009 reserve ratio is the lowest reserve ratio for a combined bank and thrift insurance fund since March 31, 1993, when the reserve ratio was 0.06 percent.

Twenty-one FDIC-insured institutions with combined assets of $9.5 billion failed during the first quarter of 2009, at an estimated cost to the DIF of $2.2 billion. Between March 31, 2008 and March 31, 2009, 44 insured institutions with combined assets of $381.4 billion failed, at an estimated cost to the DIF of $20.1 billion.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2009 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Existing-Home Sales Rise in April

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – increased 2.9 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.68 million units in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million units in March, but were 3.5 percent below the 4.85 million-unit level in April 2008.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 8.8 percent to 3.97 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 10.2 month supply at the current sales pace, compared with a 9.6-month supply in March.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in April 2009 (4.68 million SAAR) were 2.9% higher than last month, and were 3.5% lower than April 2008 (4.85 million SAAR).

It's important to note that close to half of these sales were foreclosure resales or short sales. Although these are real transactions, this means activity (ex-distressed sales) is under 3 million units SAAR.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory increased to 3.97 million in April. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Typically inventory increases in April, and then really increases over the next few months of the year until peaking in the summer. This increase in inventory was probably seasonal, and the next few months will be key for inventory.

Also, many REOs (bank owned properties) are included in the inventory because they are listed - but not all. Recently there have been stories about a substantial number of unlisted REOs - this is possible.

The third graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply was up to 10.2 months.

Even though sales also increased slightly, inventory also increased, so "months of supply" increased slightly.

I'll have more on existing home sales soon ...