by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 04:00:00 PM

These swings are wild ...

DOW just below 8,000, up 2.8%

S&P 500 up 2.9%

NASDAQ up 3.3%

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph is from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner): "Four Bad Bears".

This is the 2nd worst S&P 500 / DOW bear market in the U.S. in 100 years.

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 03:24:00 PM

Here is the link to the essay by Phillip Swagel (excerpts in previous post): The Financial Crisis: An Inside View (ht Clay)

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 01:08:00 PM

From the WSJ: Paulson Expected Criticism for Changing Course on TARP (ht Belinda)

Phillip Swagel, who was assistant Treasury secretary for economic policy under Henry Paulson ... in a 50-page essay to be presented Friday at the Brookings (Institution) Panel on Economic Activity ... says his former boss "truly meant" to the use the $700 billion that Congress gave him to buy assets from banks, not to buy shares, and knew he would be criticized when he changed course late last year in the face of a deteriorating economy and deepening banking crisis.

And the WSJ Real Time Economics has a few excerpts from the essay: What Was Going on Inside the Paulson Treasury?

Here is a short excerpt from the excerpts:

The Treasury predicted in May 2007 that “we were nearing the worst of it in terms of foreclosure starts” and the problem would subside after a peak in 2008. “What we missed is that the regressions didn’t use information on the quality of the underwriting of subprime mortgages in 2005, 2006 and 2007,” Swagel said — Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. staff pointed that out at the time.

The ill-fated 2007 Treasury proposal to create a privately funded entity — called MLEC, or Master Liquidity Enhancement Conduit – to buy up toxic assets from the banks was developed by the Treasury’s Office of Domestic Finance and shared with market participants without involvement from other Treasury senior staff. “The MLEC episode looked to the world and to many within Treasury like a basketball player going up in the air to pass without an open teammate in mind — a rough and awkward situation,” he said.

Paulson “truly meant” to the use the $700 billion in TARP money to buy assets from the banks, not to buy shares in the banks, because he saw it as “a fundamentally bad idea to have the government involved in the ownership of banks.” He changed is mind when markets deteriorated and “he well understood that directly adding capital to the banking system provided much greater leverage.”

This shows three of the key problems with the Paulson Treasury:

1) Paulson didn't understand the problem until very late:

Paulson also said the fallout in subprime mortgages is "going to be painful to some lenders, but it is largely contained."
March 13, 2007

"All the signs I look at" show "the housing market is at or near the bottom," Paulson said.
April 20, 2007

"In terms of looking at housing, most of us believe that it's at or near the bottom," [Paulson] told Reuters. "It's had a significant impact on the economy. No one is forecasting when, with any degree of clarity, that the upturn is going to come other than it's at or near the bottom."
July 2, 2007

2) The ill-fated MLEC, and three page initial TARP proposal showed poor planning and coordination.

“The MLEC episode looked to the world and to many within Treasury like a basketball player going up in the air to pass without an open teammate in mind — a rough and awkward situation.”
Assistant Treasury secretary Phillip Swagel

3) Paulson was blinded by ideological concerns. The FDIC effectively takes over failed banks all the time, but somehow Paulson saw this as a "fundamentally bad idea".

Hopefully the entire essay will be available online.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 01:02:00 PM

Here is a quick look at a few credit indicators:

First, the British Bankers' Association reported that the three-month dollar Libor rates were fixed at 1.166%. The LIBOR was at 1.30% a couple of weeks ago, and peaked at 4.81875% on Oct 10, 2008. This is near the January 14th low of 1.0825%.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the spread between 30 year Moody's Aaa and Baa rated bonds and the 30 year treasury.

There has been some increase in the spread the last few weeks, but the spread is still below the recent peak. The spreads are still very high, even for higher rated paper, but especially for lower rated paper.

Of course the default risk has increased significantly, especially for lower rated paper. Yesterday, Moody's warned of the worst corporate default rate since at least WWII.

Corporate America's credit quality collapsed in the first quarter, with Moody's Investors Service downgrading an estimated $1.76 trillion of debt, a record high ... The downgrades included a record number to the lowest rating categories, signaling the approach of the worst defaults since at least World War Two, Moody's chief economist John Lonski said in an interview.
emphasis added

The Moody's data is from the St. Louis Fed:

Moody's tries to include bonds with remaining maturities as close as possible to 30 years. Moody's drops bonds if the remaining life falls below 20 years, if the bond is susceptible to redemption, or if the rating changes.

There has been improvement in the A2P2 spread. This has declined to 0.93. This is far below the record (for this cycle) of 5.86 after Thanksgiving, but still above the normal spread.

This is the spread between high and low quality 30 day nonfinancial commercial paper.

Meanwhile the TED spread has decreased further over the last week, and is now at 95.3. This is the difference between the interbank rate for three month loans and the three month Treasury. The peak was 463 on Oct 10th and a normal spread is around 50 bps.

This graph shows the at the Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Index OAS (Option adjusted spread) for the last 2 years.

This is a broad index of investment grade corporate debt:

The Merrill Lynch US Corporate Index tracks the performance of US dollar denominated investment grade corporate debt publicly issued in the US domestic market.

The recent surge in this index was a cause for alarm, but the index appears to have stabilized - and has declined over the last week.

All of these indicators are still too high, but there has been some progress.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 11:08:00 AM

First a quote:

"The deteriorating trends in revenue and earnings ... accelerated during the first quarter of 2009. We expect this situation to continue as long as competitors in the Las Vegas market follow a strategy of sacrificing ADR (average daily room rate) to maximize room occupancy ... " emphasis added
William L. Westerman, CEO, Riviera Holdings Corp, March 31, 2009

It's not just in Las Vegas ...

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR reports U.S. data for week ending 28 March

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy fell 12.3 percent to end the week at 56.6 percent (64.6 percent in the comparable week in 2008). Average daily rate dropped 8.8 percent to finish the week at US$99.77 (US$109.34 in the comparable week in 2008). Revenue per available room for the week decreased 20.0 percent to finish at US$56.50 (US$70.61 in the comparable week in 2008).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the YoY change in the occupancy rate (3 week trailing average).

The three week average is off 11.3% from the same period in 2008.

The average daily rate is down 8.8%, so RevPAR (Revenue per available room) is off 20.0% from the same week last year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 09:18:00 AM

From Bloomberg: FASB Eases Fair-Value Rules Amid Lawmaker Pressure (ht Mark)

... The changes approved today to fair-value, also known as mark-to-market, allow companies to use “significant” judgment in valuing assets to reduce writedowns on certain investments, including mortgage-backed securities. Accounting analysts say the measure, which can be applied to first-quarter results, may boost banks’ net income by 20 percent or more. FASB approved the changes during a meeting in Norwalk, Connecticut.

Update: From Housing Wire:

If you read the headlines (and most people don’t bother to go much farther beyond the headline than the lead paragraph –- to our collective disgrace), you already think FASB eased the rules for measuring fair value on Thursday. You might believe that it has at last caved in to pressure from banks and Congress, and decided to allow “preparers” and their auditors to use judgment when valuing illiquid assets.

Not so. They are reiterating for the third time that “fair value is the price that would be received to sell the asset in an orderly transaction (that is, not a forced liquidation or distressed sale) between market participants at the measurement date.”

And for the second time it is “highlighting and expanding on the relevant principles in FAS 157 that should be considered in estimating fair value when there has been a significant decrease in market activity for the asset.”

The first time, of course, was when they issued FAS 157. The second is the SEC/FASB staff clarifications on fair value accounting issued September 30, 2008. This is the third statement, second clarification and expansion.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 08:44:00 AM

"The decline in U.S. online recruitment activity during March was a sober follow-up to February’s seasonal rise, as uncertainty in the future economic situation continued to keep employers on the sidelines of the hiring field.”
Jesse Harriott, senior vice president, Monster Worldwide April 2, 2009

From Monster.com: Monster Employment Index Dips Slightly in March

The Monster Employment Index fell 4 points in March, and is now down 29% year-over-year, indicating a continued deceleration in online recruitment activity at the end of the first quarter.

Just another indicator showing substantial weakness in the job market.

The ADP report showed private employment decreased 742,000 from February to March 2009. The weekly initial unemployment claims report showed insured unemployment is at a record 5.73 million, and initial weekly claims at a cycle high of 669 thousand.

The BLS report for March will be released tomorrow. The consensus is for a decline of 650 thousand in payroll employment ... I'll take the under.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 669,000, an increase of 12,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 657,000. The 4-week moving average was 656,750, an increase of 6,500 from the previous week's revised average of 650,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 21 was 5,728,000, an increase of 161,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 5,567,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows weekly claims and continued claims since 1971.

The four week moving average is at 656,750. The record was 674,250 in 1982, although that was much higher as a percent of covered employment (covered employment was 87.6 million in 1982 compared to 133.9 million today).

Continued claims are now at 5.73 million - the all time record.

Note: I'll add the normalized graph next week. This is another very weak report and shows continued weakness for employment.

by Calculated Risk on 4/02/2009 12:40:00 AM

From Peter Hong at the LA Times: The Hunter S. Thompson of real estate

Real estate salesman Jim Klinge ... has become a notorious Internet chronicler of the real estate crash in north San Diego County, where he has lived and worked for decades.

Rather than downplay the greed and excess that caused the region's travails, he revels in exposing them.

He surveys the wreckage with a pocket video camera, shooting footage of vacant, once-pricey houses turned into eyesores, voiced over with his deadpan narration. Then he posts them on his website, at www.bubbleinfo.com.

They're shaky, noisy clips full of coarse images and language.

Here is one of my favorites - Jim the Realtor showcases an investment opportunity in San Diego - enjoy!


More from the LA Times:

In one clip, the camera pans across the kitchen of a million-dollar fixer near Interstate 5. He pointedly notes the house's proximity to the freeway, which he calls the "De-troit river." There's mold under the sink and a foot-sized hole in the drywall just above the floor.

"December 2006 this house sold for a million dollars," he says. "Nineteen hundred square feet, built in '78, right across the freeway. One million."
...
His wife, Donna, who helps manage the family brokerage, was nervous. "He was really pushing the envelope with the blog, taking people on, naming names," she said. "I took deep breaths. I didn't know how it would turn out."

She said she was shocked one day to see a photo on the blog of two young men sitting on the floor of a house with their wrists bound like prisoners. They had been squatting in a foreclosed house Jim was selling, and he had sneaked up on them as they slept and tied them up with plastic zip ties in a brazen citizen’s arrest.

I really enjoy Jim's videos ... Here is a compilation video Jim posted today:

by Calculated Risk on 4/01/2009 10:59:00 PM

From NPR (with Chicago Public Radio: This American Life), here is a story about the FDIC takeover of Bank of Clark County: Anatomy Of A Bank Takeover (ht Ted)

Here is the audio from NPR.

Here is the FDIC announcement from January: Umpqua Bank Acquires the Insured Deposits of Bank of Clark County, Vancouver, WA

At least they get free ice cream! Click on photo for larger image in new window. Photo Credit: Otishertz, January 2009