by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 09:20:00 PM

FAQ: Why does CR give everything away for free? Because he feels like it ;-)

I'm frequently asked for sources of data, so here is an update to the list ranking economic data. For each indicator I've included a link to the source, and a link to the current graph gallery.

These lists are not exhaustive (I'm sure I've left a few off), and the rankings are not static. As an example, right now initial weekly unemployment claims is ‘B List’ data, but when (if) the expansion takes hold, weekly claims will move unceremoniously to the 'D List'.

I've marked several indicators with '***' indicating I think this data is currently more important than usual. This includes weekly claims and several real estate related releases (delinquency reports, negative equity, vacancy rates).

Some of the lower ranked data is useful as leading indicators. As an example, the Architecture Billings Index is a leading indicator for investment in commercial real estate. And the NMHC apartment survey leads changes in apartment rents and vacancy rates. Also some of the lower ranked data helps forecast some of the more important data.

Note: There has been some research (by Wall Street analysts) about how "surprises" for many of these indicators impact the stock market. In general the ranking is similar to this list, with the employment situation report being #1. Surprisingly (at least to me) investors tend to react more to "surprises" for existing home sales than new home sales, even though the later is far more important from an economic perspective.

And on Existing Home Sales: This was a tough choice. For me, the key to the NAR report is the inventory number - I watch it closely at times (I'd even say that existing home inventory would be 'B List' data right now - if it was more accurate), but the sales number is much less important than inventory. (Note: This summer I expect the NAR to revise down sales and inventory for the last few years).

A-List
• BLS: Employment Situation Report (Employment Graphs)
• BEA: GDP Report (quarterly) (GDP Graphs)

B-List
• Census: New Home Sales (New Home Graphs)
• Census: Housing Starts (Housing Graphs)
• ISM Manufacturing Index (ISM Graph)
• Census: Retail Sales (Retail Graphs)
• BEA: Personal Income and Outlays (graph)
• Fed: Industrial Production (graphs IP and Capacity Utilization)
• BLS: Core CPI (graph CPI)
• ***DOL: Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims (graph weekly claims)

C-List
• Philly Fed Index (Graph Philly Fed)
• NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index (Graph Empire Index)
• Chicago ISM: Chicago PMI
• Census: Durable Goods
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Graphs)
• House Prices: Case-Shiller and CoreLogic (House Price Graphs)
• NAR: Existing Home Sales (Graphs Existing Home)
• NAHB: Housing Market Index (Graph NAHB HMI)
• Census: Trade Balance (Graph Trade Balance)
• ***MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Data (Quarterly) (Graph MBA delinquency)
• ***LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Data (Graphs LPS Delinquency)
• ***CoreLogic: Negative Equity Report (quarterly) (Graphs Negative Equity)
• ***AIA: Architecture Billings Index (Graph ABI)
• ***Reis: Office, Mall, Apartment Vacancy Rates (Quarterly) (Graphs REIS Vacancy Rate)
• ***NMHC Apartment Survey (Quarterly) (Graph NMHC Survey)

D-List
• Reuters / Univ. of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index (Graph Consumer Confidence)
• MBA: Mortgage Purchase Applications Index (Graph MBA Index)
• BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Graph JOLTS)
• Census: Construction Spending (Graph Construction Spending)
• ¹Census: Housing Vacancy Survey (Quarterly) (Graphs Homeownerhip, Vacancy Rates)
• Fed: Senior Loan Officer Survey (Quarterly)
• AAR: Rail Traffic (Graph Transportation)
• ATA: Trucking (Graph Transportation)
• Ceridian-UCLA: Diesel Fuel Index (Graph Transportation)
• NFIB: Small Business Survey (Graphs NFIB Survey)
• Fed: Flow of Funds (Quarterly) (Graph Household Net Worth)
• STR: Hotel Occupancy (Graph Hotel Occupancy)
• CRE Prices: CoStar, Moody’s (Graphs)
• Manufacturers: Light Vehicle Sales (Graph Vehicle Sales)
• NRA: Restaurant Performance Index (Graph)
• Fed: Consumer Credit (Graph Consumer Credit)
• DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven (Graph Miles Driven)
• LA Port Traffic (Graph Port Traffic)
• BLS: Producer Price Index
• ADP Employment Report
• Conference Board Confidence Index
• NAR: Pending Home Sales
• Census: State Unemployment Rates, (graph)

¹: There are questions about the accuracy of the HVS.

Sources (Government):
BEA: Bureau of Economic Analysis
BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Census: Census Bureau
DOL: Dept of Labor
DOT: Dept. of Transportation
Fed: Federal Reserve

Sources (Industry):
AAR: Association of American Railroads
AIA: American Institute of Architects
ISM: Institute for Supply Management
LPS: Lender Processing Services
MBA: Mortgage Bankers Association
NAHB: National Association of Homebuilders
NAR: National Association of Realtors
NFIB: National Federation of Independent Business
NRA: National Restaurant Association
STR: Smith Travel Research

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 06:45:00 PM

Professor Jim Hamilton nailed it again when he wrote that the OPEC announcement was "largely irrelevant".

From the NY Times: Saudi Arabia Defies OPEC and Raises Oil Output

The Saudi newspaper Al-Hayat reported on Friday that oil officials there had decided to increase production to 10 million barrels a day in July, from 9.3 million barrels ...

Of course Hamilton also wrote that "if you're interested in what OPEC members really plan to produce, my view is that actions speak louder than words" - so we need to see if these extra barrels from Saudi Arabia are actually produced.

Brent crude futures fell a little to $118.78 per barrel (WTI futures are back under $100).

Meanwhile gasoline prices are still falling, and are now down about 25 cents per gallon from the recent peak nationally (down over 33 cents per gallon where I live). And it looks like gasoline prices will probably fall some more over the next few weeks ...

Orange County Historical Gas Price Charts Provided by GasBuddy.com

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 01:37:00 PM

The percent of distressed sales in Sacramento decreased in May compared to April, but distessed sales are the highest percent of total sales for the month of May since Sacramento started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

This should be no surprise after Fannie and Freddie announced record REO sales in Q1. We should see a high level of REO and short sales all year (putting pressure on house prices).

Note: I've been following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix (conventional, REOs, short sales) in a distressed area. Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (strong in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales increases every winter.

Notes: Prior to June 2009, it is unclear if short sales were included as REO or as "conventional" - or some of both. The tax credits might have also boosted conventional sales in 2009 and early 2010.

In May 2011, 65.6% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This is down from 66.8% in April (because of the seasonal pattern), but this is a very high percentage of distressed sales for May - and a high level of distressed sales suggests falling prices.

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 10:10:00 AM

From NY Fed President William Dudley: The Road to Recovery: Brooklyn

On the national economy:

[E]conomic growth so far this year has been disappointing. Real GDP in the first quarter of 2011 grew at a tepid 1.8 percent annual rate, and the available data suggest that growth in the current quarter will not be much better.

A major factor behind this slowdown is that real consumption growth (that is, spending on goods and services adjusted for price increases) has been slower than in the last quarter of 2010. This occurred, in part, because higher gasoline and food prices reduced the income that households could spend on other purchases. High energy prices also contributed to lower consumer confidence, which may have had an independent negative effect on consumer spending.

As noted, a number of economic indicators suggest that economic growth in the second quarter will also be subpar. Manufacturing production fell in April. Most business survey indicators, including the New York Fed's own Empire State Manufacturing Survey, also have declined recently, although most continue to signal some growth. The housing market remains very weak and home prices fell in early 2011. After a notable improvement earlier in the year, the labor market showed more softness recently: more workers filed for unemployment insurance in the past few weeks, firms added fewer jobs on net in May, and unemployment inched up in April and May.

In part, this softness is related to factors that I expect will prove transitory. These factors include the rapid rise in gas and food prices that I noted earlier, supply disruptions associated with the earthquake in Japan, and severe weather and flooding in parts of the United States. All three suggest that the soft patch may not persist. However, we continue to monitor the data for signs of more persistent weakness, whether related to the interaction of housing and consumption or some other factor.

Another reason to expect the economy to recover from this soft patch is that many fundamentals have improved since last year. In particular:

• Financial conditions have improved, albeit gradually, which makes it easier for larger, well-established firms to borrow and invest. However, new startups and smaller businesses continue to find credit difficult to access.
• With stock market prices higher than a year ago and household debt lower, household balance sheets are in better shape, which should support household spending.
• Demand abroad—particularly in Asia—still appears robust, supporting our exports.
• Most importantly, and notwithstanding the May jobs report, the labor market appears more solid than it was a year ago. Private firms added jobs at a faster pace over the last five months than they did last year. This growth has been strong enough to more than offset government layoffs. Unemployment is also noticeably lower than it was in November, after a decline that was rapid by historical standards.

Consequently, I anticipate that economic growth will pick up enough in the second half of 2011 to sustain a moderate economic recovery. Still, the pace of recovery probably will be painfully slow for the many unemployed and underemployed workers. Even if the economy added 300,000 jobs per month over the next year and a half, we would likely still have considerable labor market slack at the end of 2012.

Even though I expect a moderate economic recovery to be sustained, the recent disappointing data suggest that downside risks to the outlook have increased. Let me list some of them for you:

• As I mentioned earlier, high oil and commodity prices have further strained many families that already had tight budgets.
• The renewed decline in home prices could dampen consumer spending and housing activity more than I expect.
• The recent slowing of consumer spending growth could prompt businesses to limit hiring and investment.
• Finally, aggressive near-term government spending cuts or tax increases could slow economic growth at least in the short- to medium-term. I would emphasize, however, that a credible plan for long-term fiscal consolidation is sorely required and would have many economic benefits.

Although these issues bear watching, I still believe that they remain risks rather than the most likely outcomes. ... To sum up, despite the recent soft patch, economic conditions have improved in the past year. I expect a moderate recovery to continue.

I think the downside key risk remains oil and gasoline prices. I'll have an update to my outlook soon ...

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 08:50:00 AM

A couple of stories. The first is about the recent selloff in risky assets (junk bonds), and the second is a little reminiscent of some of the funding issues back in 2008 (this time in Europe):

From the WSJ: 'Junk' Bond Market Hit by a Selloff (ht Brian)

A steep decline in prices of bonds backed by subprime mortgages has spread through the riskiest segments of the credit markets ... Weak economic data including falling home prices and disappointing jobs numbers have led investors to dump these securities ... The decline in high-yield, or "junk," corporate bonds accelerated after last week's employment figures, with prices falling nearly 1% on Thursday, the worst one-day loss in three months ...

And from the WSJ: Bond Deal May Augur More European Travails

Investors balked at buying a €1 billion ($1.46 billion) bond offering by Banco Santander SA that was backed by debt of Spanish local governments ... That left a group of big European banks that managed the deal holding roughly €500 million of the debt.

The lack of demand ...underscores the jittery nature of the region's credit markets. That some of the biggest banks in Europe, including Commerzbank AG, HSBC Holdings PLC and Société Général SA, were left holding the bag also demonstrates how easily sovereign risk can spread around the euro zone.

Prior to the financial crisis, many banks were stuck with lousy Residential Mortgage Backed Security (RMBS) that they couldn't sell to investors (all that Alt-A and Wall Street subprime - the worst of the worst mortgage loans). This story, about European banks getting stuck with debt backed by local Spanish governments, reminds me of those problems (although the overall situation is not as dire).

by Calculated Risk on 6/09/2011 08:32:00 PM

From Buck Wargo at the Las Vegas Sun: Land that sold for $30 million fetches $4.4 million after foreclosure

A 23.53-acre property at the Las Vegas Beltway and Hacienda Avenue that sold for $30.2 million in 2007 and was later foreclosed upon has been sold for $4.4 million.

It is amazing that people were still paying crazy prices in 2007.

This is mixed use land, and the commercial real estate bust started later than the residential bust, but the usual pattern is for commercial real estate to follow residential real estate - both up and down. The housing bust was obvious to everyone by late 2006, so I'd think developers would have been avoiding commercial by then too. Apparently not ...

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increase to 427,000
• Trade Deficit decreased to $43.7 billion in April
• Q1 Flow of Funds: Household Real Estate assets off $6.6 trillion from peak
• Graphs: Weekly Claims, Trade Deficit, Flow of Funds