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Friday, June 10, 2011

Housing: Sacramento Distressed Sales at high level in May

by Calculated Risk on 6/10/2011 01:37:00 PM

The percent of distressed sales in Sacramento decreased in May compared to April, but distessed sales are the highest percent of total sales for the month of May since Sacramento started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

This should be no surprise after Fannie and Freddie announced record REO sales in Q1. We should see a high level of REO and short sales all year (putting pressure on house prices).

Note: I've been following the Sacramento market to see the change in mix (conventional, REOs, short sales) in a distressed area. Here are the statistics.

Distressed Sales Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the percent of REO, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (strong in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales increases every winter.

Notes: Prior to June 2009, it is unclear if short sales were included as REO or as "conventional" - or some of both. The tax credits might have also boosted conventional sales in 2009 and early 2010.

In May 2011, 65.6% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This is down from 66.8% in April (because of the seasonal pattern), but this is a very high percentage of distressed sales for May - and a high level of distressed sales suggests falling prices.