by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2011 02:54:00 PM

Earlier ...
• Summary for Week Ending May 27th

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for May 27, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Activities of the FDIC contributed to many changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week as they closed a bank and released their enforcement actions through April 2011. In all, there were 12 additions and three removals, which leaves the list at 997 institutions with assets of $415.4 billion compared with 988 institutions and assets of $423.9 billion last week.

Asset figures were updated from 2010q4 to 2011q1, which caused aggregate assets to drop by $9.8 billion. The net of additions and removals this week caused assets to rise $1.4 billion.

The removals include the failed First Heritage Bank, Snohomish, WA ($173 million) and action terminations against CB&S Bank, Inc., Russellville, AL ($1.3 billion); and Alliance Banking Company, Winchester, KY ($60 million).

Among the 12 additions are Four Oaks Bank & Trust Company, Four Oaks, NC ($961 million); Frontier State Bank, Oklahoma City, OK ($517 million); Security First Bank, Fresno, CA ($114 million Ticker: SFRK); and Central Florida State Bank, Belleview, FL ($85 million Ticker: CEFB).

Other changes include Prompt Corrective Actions order issued by the FDIC against Community South Bank, Parsons, TN ($658 million); First International Bank, Plano, TX ($321 million); and Community Bank of Central Wisconsin, Colby, WI ($104 million).

CR Note: The FDIC Q1 Quarterly Bank Profile showed 888 problem institutions on the official problem bank list. The FDIC's official problem bank list is comprised of banks with a CAMELS rating of 4 or 5, and the list is not made public (just the number of banks and assets every quarter). Note: Bank CAMELS ratings are also not made public.

CAMELS is the FDIC rating system, and stands for Capital adequacy, Asset quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to market risk. The scale is from 1 to 5, with 1 being the strongest.

As a substitute for the CAMELS ratings, surferdude808 is using publicly announced formal enforcement actions, and also media reports and company announcements that suggest to us an enforcement action is likely, to compile a list of possible problem banks in the public interest. In general the unofficial list has tracked the official list, although currently there more institutions on the unofficial list.

by Calculated Risk on 5/28/2011 08:15:00 AM

The economic data was soft again last week. The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey showed contraction in May, and the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey showed growth had "stalled". The second estimate of Q1 GDP was disappointing (unrevised at 1.8% annualized real growth rate, but the underlying details were weaker than in the advance estimate). And weekly initial unemployment claims increased again. Also the personal income and outlays report for April indicated a slowdown in consumer spending.

There might have been a little bit of good news in a surprising sector: housing. New home sales were up a little (still very low), and although mortgage delinquencies increased slightly, the increase was probably seasonal, with both Fannie and Freddie reporting another decline in seriously delinquent loans. Also lender Real Estate Owned (REO) is now declining. Baby steps ...

Also gasoline prices are now down about 16 cents per gallon nationally from the recent peak - and that probably showed up in a small increase in May consumer sentiment.

Below is a summary of economic data last week mostly in graphs:

• New Home Sales in April at 323 Thousand SAAR, Ties Record low for April

Click on graphs for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 323 thousand. This was up from a revised 301 thousand in March (revised from 300 thousand).

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke inventory down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed. This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale fell to 67,000 units in April. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.

The following graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through April.

The gap is due mostly to the flood of distressed sales. This has kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders can't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

I expect this gap to close over the next few years once the number of distressed sales starts to decline.

Although above the consensus forecast of 300 thousand, this ties the record low for April - and new home sales have averaged only 298 thousand SAAR over the last 12 months ... moving sideways at a very low level.

• Three Graphs of REO Inventory

Here are three graphs of lender Real Estate Owned (REO) inventory. The first is for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA. Then we add Private Label Securities, and finally FDIC insured banks and thrifts.

The combined REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA decreased to 287,380 at the end of Q1, from a record 295,307 units at the end of Q4. The REO inventory increased 37% compared to Q1 2010 (year-over-year comparison).

The REO inventory for the "Fs" increased sharply in 2010, but may have peaked in Q4 2010. The Fs acquired 101,997 REO units in Q1, but sold 110,023. Both are records, and the numbers will probably increase all year.

The second graph includes the data for the Fs and adds Private Label Securities (PLS).

The PLS blew up first because it contained the worst of the worst loans; poorly underwritten subprime and Alt-A.

Also the PLS wasn't set up to effectively manage REO and they just dumped houses on the market. Usually house prices are sticky downwards - prices decline, but slowly. However this dump of REOs led to what Tom Lawler called "destickification" with house prices falling rapidly in many low end areas with high foreclosure rates.

Now about half of the REOs are owned by the Fs and they are little more careful in releasing REO to the market.

From Tom Lawler: "The FDIC released its Quarterly Banking Profile for the first quarter of 2011. ... On the REO front [lender Real Estate Owned], the carrying value of 1-4 family residential real estate owned on FDIC-insured institutions’ balance sheet on 3/31/11 was $13.2795 billion, down from $14.0498 billion on 12/31/10 and $14.5527 billion last March. ... Using [$150,000 per REO], here is a chart of REO holdings of Fannie, Freddie, FHA, and FDIC-insured institutions.

Note that this is NOT an estimate of total residential REO, as it excludes non-FHA government REO (VA, USDA, etc.), credit unions, finance companies, non-FDIC-insured banks and thrifts, and a few other lender categories. ... If one “grossed up” the estimates shown in the chart by this factor – which probably produces a “too high” number – then one estimate of the total REO inventory for 1-4 family properties would be around 615,000.

• LPS: Mortgage Delinquency Rates increased slightly in April, Foreclosure pipeline "Bloated"

According to LPS, 7.97% of mortgages were delinquent in April, up from 7.78% in March, but down from 8.80% in February and down from 9.52% in April 2010. Some of this increase is the normal seasonal pattern.

LPS reports that 4.14% of mortgages were in the foreclosure process, down from the record 4.21% in March. This gives a total of 12.11% delinquent or in foreclosure. It breaks down as:

• 2.24 million loans less than 90 days delinquent.
• 1.96 million loans 90+ days delinquent.
• 2.18 million loans in foreclosure process.

For a total of 6.39 million loans delinquent or in foreclosure in April.

This graph provided by LPS Applied Analytics shows the aging for the 90+ days delinquent bucket.

What is surprising is the large percentage in the 90+ days delinquent bucket that are more than 12 months delinquent and haven't moved to the "in foreclosure process" bucket. About 40% of loans in the 90+ days bucket - or about 800,000 loans - have been delinquent over a year.

The second graph - from the March report - shows the aging of loans in the foreclosure process.

"31% of loans in foreclosure have not made a payment in over 2 years." So about one third of the 2.2 million loans in the foreclosure process haven't made a payment in over 2 years.

These two graphs show the "bloated" backlog of seriously delinquent loans (90+ days and in foreclosure).

The good news is the improvement in the early stages, however there is still an enormous number of seriously delinquent loans.

• Personal Income and Outlays increased 0.4% in April

This graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April (2005 dollars).

PCE increased 0.4% in April, but real PCE only increased 0.1% as the price index for PCE increased 0.3 percent in April.

It appears growth in real consumer spending has slowed over the last couple of months.

• Consumer Sentiment increased in May

The final May Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 74.3 from the preliminary reading of 72.4, and from 69.8 in April.

This was above expectations for a reading of 72.5.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices.

This is still a low reading, but sentiment probably improved a little possible due to the decline in gasoline prices.

• Other Economic Stories ...
• ATA Trucking index decreased 0.7% in April
• Chicago Fed: Economic activity weakened in April
• Q1 real GDP growth unrevised at 1.8% annualized rate
• Kansas City Manufacturing Survey: Activity was largely unchanged in May
• Richmond Fed shows contraction

Best wishes to all!

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2011 10:34:00 PM

From the FDIC: Columbia State Bank, Tacoma, Washington, Assumes All of the Deposits of First Heritage Bank, Snohomish, Washington

As of March 31, 2011, First Heritage Bank had approximately $173.5 million in total assets and $163.3 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $34.9 million. ... First Heritage Bank is the 44th FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Washington.

Friday arrives late ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2011 07:27:00 PM

Here is a look at European bond spreads from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights released yesterday (graph as of May 24th).

From the Atlanta Fed:

Since the April FOMC meeting, peripheral European bond spreads over German bonds continue to be elevated, with those of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal setting record highs.

Since the April FOMC meeting, the 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread has widened by 192 basis points (bps), through May 24. The spreads for Ireland and Portugal have soared higher by 91 bps and 68 bps, respectively, over the same period.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The spreads for Greece, Ireland and Portugal were all at record highs.

Spreads for Spain and Italy have increased recently, but are still much lower than for Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

The second graph shows the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads:

From the Atlanta Fed:

The CDS spread on Greek debt has widened about 47 basis points (bps) since the April FOMC meeting, while those on Portuguese and Irish debt continue to be high.

The WSJ mentioned a new unreleased IMF paper that examines "debt restructurings by countries using a common currency": In Standoff Over Greece, Will ECB Have to Fold?

There aren't many precedents for debt restructurings by countries using a common currency, but there are some. An IMF working paper, as yet unpublished, examines them. According to two people who have read the paper, it shows that orderly debt restructurings—for example by Ivory Coast, which uses the West African CFA franc, and Grenada and Dominica, users of the East Caribbean dollar—haven't affected the viability of their respective currency unions.

Not great examples, but it isn't much of a jump to think this paper was motivated by the situation in Greece.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2011 03:27:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the serious delinquency rate decreased to 4.27% in March from 4.44% in February. This is down from 5.47% in March 2010. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Freddie Mac reported that the serious delinquency rate decreased to 3.57% in April from 3.63% in March. (Note: Fannie reports a month behind Freddie). This is down from 4.06% in March 2010. Freddie's serious delinquency rate also peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Some of the rapid increase in 2009 was probably because of foreclosure moratoriums, and also because loans in trial mods were considered delinquent until the modifications were made permanent.

Now the serious delinquency rate is falling as Fannie and Freddie work through the backlog of loans and either modify the loan, foreclose, short sale, or the loan cures. The serious delinquency rate is still very high ... but at least it is declining.

by Calculated Risk on 5/27/2011 01:17:00 PM

There are really two measures of GDP: 1) real GDP, and 2) real Gross Domestic Income (GDI). The BEA also released Q1 GDI yesterday as part of the second estimate for Q1 GDP. Recent research suggests that GDI is often more accurate than GDP.

For a discussion on GDI, see from Fed economist Jeremy Nalewaik, “Income and Product Side Estimates of US Output Growth,” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. An excerpt:

The U.S. produces two conceptually identical official measures of its economic output, currently called Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Gross Domestic Income (GDI). These two measures have shown markedly different business cycle fluctuations over the past twenty five years, with GDI showing a more-pronounced cycle than GDP. These differences have become particularly glaring over the latest cyclical downturn, which appears considerably worse along several dimensions when looking at GDI. ...

In discussing the information content of these two sets of estimates, the confusion often starts with the nomenclature. GDP can mean either the true output variable of interest, or an estimate of that output variable based on the expenditure approach. Since these are two very different things, using “GDP” for both is confusing. Furthermore, since GDI has a different name than GDP, it may not be initially clear that GDI measures the same concept as GDP, using the equally valid income approach.

The following graph is constructed as a percent of the previous peak in both GDP and GDI. This shows when the indicator has bottomed - and when the indicator has returned to the level of the previous peak. If the indicator is at a new peak, the value is 100%.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

It appears that GDP bottomed in Q2 2009 and GDI in Q3 2009. Real GDP finally reached the pre-recession peak in Q4 2010, but real GDI is still slightly below the previous peak.

Using GDI, the economy will be back to the pre-recession peak in Q2 2011.¹

However, by other measures - like real personal less transfer payments and employment - the economy is still far below the pre-recession peak.

The second graph is based on the April Personal and Outlays report this morning, and shows that real personal income less transfer payments is still 3.4% below the previous peak.

And of course there are still 6.955 million fewer payroll jobs than at the beginning of the 2007 recession.

Finally, recoveries following the bursting of a credit bubble - with a financial crisis - are always sluggish. So this isn't surprising, but it is still very painful.

¹ Last year I disagreed with St Louis Fed President James Bullard - and I argued that real GDI would probably be back to pre-recession levels in Q1 2011 (close, but it now looks like Q2).