by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2011 02:54:00 PM

From ATA Trucking: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 0.7 Percent in April

The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 0.7 percent in April after gaining a revised 1.9 percent in March 2011. March’s increase was slightly better than the 1.7 percent ATA reported on April 26, 2011. The latest drop put the SA index at 114.9 (2000=100) in April, down from the March level of 115.6.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's Fore-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index.

Compared with April 2010, SA tonnage climbed 4.8 percent. In March, the tonnage index was 6.5 percent above a year earlier.

“The drop in April is not a concern. Since freight volumes are so volatile truck tonnage is unlikely to grow every month, even on a seasonally adjusted basis,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “I expect economic activity, and with it truck freight levels to grow at a moderate pace in the coming months and quarters.”

“The industry, and the economy at large, should benefit from the recent declines in oil and diesel prices,” Costello added.
...
Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67.2 percent of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation ... Motor carriers collected $563.4 billion, or 81.2 percent of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2011 11:49:00 AM

Stan Collender writes: Not A Surprise: GOP Plans Vote On Debt Ceiling Bill Next Week

House Republicans announced yesterday that they would bring a "clean" debt ceiling to the House floor next week. ... by allowing members to vote against it now, the leadership will also be making it easier for some of them to vote for a debt ceiling increase later this summer.

The theater of the absurd. Otherwise known as politics.

And from the WSJ: Geithner Dismisses Debt-Ceiling Debate as Political Theater

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner Wednesday dismissed as political theater a House vote on the debt ceiling that is expected to fail, and said Congress would ultimately raise the limit this summer.

“Right now this is all theater. Beneath the theater you are starting to see people work together,” Geithner said

The key point is the vote next week is meaningless and the debt ceiling will be increased this summer.

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2011 09:51:00 AM

During the housing busts that followed the California housing bubbles of the late '70s and late '80s, there came a period when sentiment for homeownership changed. The evidence was anecdotal, but it was not uncommon to hear people say owning a home was "dumb".

So one thing I've been looking for is a change in sentiment. Earlier posts on this with anecdotal evidence: Housing: Feeling the Hate, More "Hate" for Housing, and More "Hate" for Homeownership.

A shift in sentiment doesn't mean housing prices have bottomed - it just means the market is getting closer. In previous busts it seemed like negative sentiment lasted for a few years.

Last week Trulia and RealtyTrac released a survey of when Americans thought the housing market would recover. (ht Keith Jurow, Keith is far more bearish than I am bearish).

Here is the survey: Trulia and RealtyTrac Survey Reveals 54 Percent of American Adults Now Believe Housing Recovery Remains Unlikely Until 2014 or Later

As more cities across the nation experience double dips in home prices , more than half (54 percent) of U.S. adults believe recovery in the housing market will not happen until 2014 or later, according to the survey released today. In a previous survey conducted six months ago , 42 percent of American adults said they thought the market would turn around by 2012 or had already turned around. Now, only 23 percent continue to think this will happen.

When American Adults Believe Housing Market Will Recover
	Apr-11	Nov-10	% Change
Already Recovered[1]	5%	5%	0%
By the end of 2011	3%	10%	-70%
2012	15%	27%	-44%
2013	24%	24%	0%
2014 or Later	54%	34%	59%

Clearly there has been a sharp shift in when people think the housing market will "recover". Expecting a recovery is somewhat different from asking when people will want to buy, but I think they are somewhat related - if non-owners think the market won't bottom for several years, they would probably also say they won't buy soon too. Just a little more evidence of a shift in sentiment ...

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2011 07:35:00 AM

The MBA reports: Mortgage Applications Increase in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index increased 0.9 percent to its highest level since December 10, 2010. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1.5 percent from one week earlier.
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 4.69 percent from 4.60 percent, with points decreasing to 0.69 from 0.93 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value (LTV) ratio loans.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.

Refinance activity increased to the highest level since December 2010.

The four week average of purchase activity is at about 1997 levels. Of course this doesn't includes cash buyers - and there is a very high percentage of cash buyers right now. This suggests weak existing home sales through mid-year (not counting cash buyers).

by Calculated Risk on 5/25/2011 12:50:00 AM

From at the WSJ: Banks Face $17 Billion in Suits Over Foreclosures

State attorneys general told five of the nation's largest banks on Tuesday they face a potential liability of at least $17 billion in civil lawsuits if a settlement isn't reached to address improper foreclosure practices ... The figure doesn't cover additional billions of dollars in potential claims from federal agencies.

The initial number floated by the government was a $20 billion settlement. The banks suggested a $5 billion fund to provide transition assistance for those losing their homes in foreclosure. However the banks already provide transition assistance ("cash for keys") for borrowers who leave the keys and property in decent shape - so that wasn't much of a penalty. I guess this $17 billion is the new government number - so it appears the sides are still far apart.

by Calculated Risk on 5/24/2011 06:35:00 PM

Moody's reported yesterday that the Moody’s/REAL All Property Type Aggregate Index declined 4.2% in March. Note: Moody's CRE price index is a repeat sales index like Case-Shiller - but there are far fewer commercial sales and there are a large percentage of distressed sales - and that can impact prices and make the index very volatile.

The Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index dropped 4.2 percent from February and is now 47 percent below the peak of October 2007, Moody’s said in a statement ...So-called trophy properties in New York, Washington, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and San Francisco are helping those markets avoid the drag caused by distressed asset sales nationwide, Moody’s reported.

The overall index shows “no sign of recovery,” Moody’s said.

Almost a third of all March transactions measured by Moody’s were considered distressed, meaning the properties’ owners faced foreclosure, had difficulty covering their mortgage payments or experienced other financial problems. It was the largest proportion of distressed property sales in the history of the index, Moody’s said.

Below is a comparison of the Moodys/REAL Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and the Case-Shiller composite 20 index. Beware of the "Real" in the title - this index is not inflation adjusted.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

CRE prices only go back to December 2000. The Case-Shiller Composite 20 residential index is in blue (with Dec 2000 set to 1.0 to line up the indexes).

According to Moody's, CRE prices are down 8.5% from a year ago and down about 47% from the peak in 2007. Prices are at new post-bubble lows - and about at the levels of early 2002.

For more on CRE prices, here is the CoStar report for March prices.

Earlier:
• New Home Sales in April at 323 Thousand SAAR, Ties Record low for April
• Lawler: FDIC-insured institutions’ Real Estate Owned (REO) decrease in Q1
• New Home Sales graphs