by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 05:45:00 PM

Antebellum banks
Hives of scum and villainy
We must be cautious.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: CertusBank, National Association, Easley, South Carolina, Acquires All the Deposits of Two Georgia Institutions

As of March 31, 2011, Atlantic Southern Bank had total assets of $741.9 million and total deposits of $707.6 million; and First Georgia Banking Company had total assets of $731.0 million and total deposits of $702.2 million. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) for Atlantic Southern Bank will be $273.5 million and for First Georgia Banking Company, $156.5 million. ... The closings are the 41st and 42nd FDIC-insured institutions to fail in the nation so far this year and the eleventh and twelfth in Georgia.

Georgia again?

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 03:33:00 PM

As followup to the previous post (that showed the 10 highest state by serious delinquencies), here are graphs for the 40 remaining states.

The following graphs shows the percent delinquent by bucket of delinquency for the states in Q1 2007, Q1 2010 (the peak of the crisis nationally), and Q1 2011. The order is by the current percent of loans seriously delinquent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

For each state there are 3 columns (Q1 2007, 2010, and 2011).

Note that the y-axis scale change between the graphs. To use this graphs, find the state of interest - and compare 2007 to 2010 and 2011 (sorry there is so much data on each graph).

Most states have seen a decline from Q1 2010 to Q1 2011, although all states are well above the Q1 2007 delinquency rates.

NOTE: when you use the graph gallery, you can scroll between graphs - and use the "print" button (below the image on the left) to see the full size image.

Some states always have a high rate for 30 day delinquencies (mostly southern states). These borrowers usually catch up, and this generates late fees for the lenders.

An example is Alabama on this graph. For some reason Alabama always has a high level of 30 day delinquencies - and that is why I sorted the states by serious delinquency rates (90+ days and in foreclosure).

Nebraska has seen the smallest increase in the serious delinquency rate - just over 60% from 2.0% in Q1 2007 to 3.3% now.

At the other extreme, the serious delinquency rate in Florida increased from 1.8% in Q1 2007 to 18.97% in Q1 2011. Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 01:05:00 PM

Yesterday I posted Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number for Q1 2011. This raised the question of how this compares to before the crisis - and also a comparison to the peak of the delinquency crisis nationally (Q1 2011). (ht Cinco-X)

The following graph shows the percent delinquent by bucket of delinquency for the 10 worst states in Q1 2007, Q1 2010 (the peak of the crisis nationally), and Q1 2011. These are the 10 worst states sorted by the current percent seriously delinquent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

For each state there are 3 columns (Q1 2007, 2010, and 2011). In Ohio and Indiana, delinquency rates were already elevated by Q1 2007.

Some states have made progress: Arizona, Nevada and California. For other states like New Jersey and New York, serious delinquencies were higher in Q1 2011 than in Q1 2010.

But even though there has been some progress, there is a long way to go to get back to the 2007 rates.

Note: I'll post the other states soon. I'm grouping by percent of serious delinquencies so we can see the change on the scale for states with fewer delinquencies.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or slightly lower in April. Thirty-nine states recorded unemployment rate decreases, three states and the District of Columbia registered rate increases, and eight states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to register the highest unemployment rate among the states, 12.5 percent in April. California recorded the next highest rate, 11.9 percent. North Dakota reported the lowest jobless rate, 3.3 percent ...

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). If there is no blue, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate.

Nevada saw the most improvement in April, but still has the highest state unemployment rate.

One states is still at the recession maximum (no improvement): Louisiana. Every other state has seen some improvement and only seven states have double digit unemployment now (19 states had double digit unemployment during the great recession).

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 08:40:00 AM

From the Financial Times: ECB’s political tensions flare over Greece

This week, the ECB’s fierce opposition to Greece’s delaying debt repayments has erupted into a full-blown and public dispute. ... Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who also chairs meetings of eurozone finance ministers, floated the idea of a “soft” restructuring ...

In response, ECB policymakers accused him of “using meaningless phrases”.

From the FT Alphaville: The ECB goes all-in

Kash Mansori wonders Is the ECB Pushing Greece Out of the Euro-Zone?

The yield on Greece ten year bonds increased to a record 16.5% today and the two year yield was up slightly to 25.1%.

Yields for other European countries are not increasing - yet. Here are the ten year yields for Ireland at 10.5%, Portugal at 9.3%, and Spain at 5.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2011 07:38:00 PM

Here are two more graphs based on the MBA Q1 National Delinquency Survey released this morning.

Earlier the MBA released a graph of the percent of loans "in foreclosure" by state. The following graph is similar, but includes all delinquent loans (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Florida and Nevada have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Arizona and California.

Comment: It has always bothered me that several southern states always have an elevated percentage of mortgage loans 30+ day delinquent (Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, and Louisiana all have a large percentage light blue). Most of these borrowers always seem to catch up - they just make their payments late. That means the lenders generate plenty of late fees in these states. This might be something for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to investigate.

The second graph shows the number of loans delinquent in each state (as opposed to the percent). California is the largest state, so it is no surprise that the number of delinquent loans is very high (I'd expect California to always be #1). In that sense this graph is misleading - in reality California is in about the same shape as New York, Arizona, Ohio and Rhode Island (first graph).

There are plenty of problems in California, but nothing like Florida. Florida has 57% the number of mortgages as California, but more delinquent loans. In most ways, dividing this by states is arbitrary - except the foreclosure process matters. States with only judicial foreclosures tend to have many more loans in the foreclosure process (just because it takes longer).

Earlier:
• April Existing Home Sales: 5.05 million SAAR, 9.2 months of supply
• MBA: Total Delinquencies essentially unchanged in Q1 Seasonally Adjusted
• Philly Fed Survey shows "regional manufacturing activity grew slightly in May"
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 409,000, 4-Week average highest since November
• Existing Home Sales graphs