by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 01:05:00 PM

Yesterday I posted Mortgage Delinquencies by State: Percent and Number for Q1 2011. This raised the question of how this compares to before the crisis - and also a comparison to the peak of the delinquency crisis nationally (Q1 2011). (ht Cinco-X)

The following graph shows the percent delinquent by bucket of delinquency for the 10 worst states in Q1 2007, Q1 2010 (the peak of the crisis nationally), and Q1 2011. These are the 10 worst states sorted by the current percent seriously delinquent.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

For each state there are 3 columns (Q1 2007, 2010, and 2011). In Ohio and Indiana, delinquency rates were already elevated by Q1 2007.

Some states have made progress: Arizona, Nevada and California. For other states like New Jersey and New York, serious delinquencies were higher in Q1 2011 than in Q1 2010.

But even though there has been some progress, there is a long way to go to get back to the 2007 rates.

Note: I'll post the other states soon. I'm grouping by percent of serious delinquencies so we can see the change on the scale for states with fewer delinquencies.

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 10:00:00 AM

From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary

Regional and state unemployment rates were generally little changed or slightly lower in April. Thirty-nine states recorded unemployment rate decreases, three states and the District of Columbia registered rate increases, and eight states had no rate change, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Nevada continued to register the highest unemployment rate among the states, 12.5 percent in April. California recorded the next highest rate, 11.9 percent. North Dakota reported the lowest jobless rate, 3.3 percent ...

The following graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). If there is no blue, the state is currently at the maximum during the recession.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate.

Nevada saw the most improvement in April, but still has the highest state unemployment rate.

One states is still at the recession maximum (no improvement): Louisiana. Every other state has seen some improvement and only seven states have double digit unemployment now (19 states had double digit unemployment during the great recession).

by Calculated Risk on 5/20/2011 08:40:00 AM

From the Financial Times: ECB’s political tensions flare over Greece

This week, the ECB’s fierce opposition to Greece’s delaying debt repayments has erupted into a full-blown and public dispute. ... Jean-Claude Juncker, the Luxembourg prime minister who also chairs meetings of eurozone finance ministers, floated the idea of a “soft” restructuring ...

In response, ECB policymakers accused him of “using meaningless phrases”.

From the FT Alphaville: The ECB goes all-in

Kash Mansori wonders Is the ECB Pushing Greece Out of the Euro-Zone?

The yield on Greece ten year bonds increased to a record 16.5% today and the two year yield was up slightly to 25.1%.

Yields for other European countries are not increasing - yet. Here are the ten year yields for Ireland at 10.5%, Portugal at 9.3%, and Spain at 5.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2011 07:38:00 PM

Here are two more graphs based on the MBA Q1 National Delinquency Survey released this morning.

Earlier the MBA released a graph of the percent of loans "in foreclosure" by state. The following graph is similar, but includes all delinquent loans (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Florida and Nevada have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by New Jersey, Illinois, New York, Arizona and California.

Comment: It has always bothered me that several southern states always have an elevated percentage of mortgage loans 30+ day delinquent (Mississippi, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, and Louisiana all have a large percentage light blue). Most of these borrowers always seem to catch up - they just make their payments late. That means the lenders generate plenty of late fees in these states. This might be something for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to investigate.

The second graph shows the number of loans delinquent in each state (as opposed to the percent). California is the largest state, so it is no surprise that the number of delinquent loans is very high (I'd expect California to always be #1). In that sense this graph is misleading - in reality California is in about the same shape as New York, Arizona, Ohio and Rhode Island (first graph).

There are plenty of problems in California, but nothing like Florida. Florida has 57% the number of mortgages as California, but more delinquent loans. In most ways, dividing this by states is arbitrary - except the foreclosure process matters. States with only judicial foreclosures tend to have many more loans in the foreclosure process (just because it takes longer).

Earlier:
• April Existing Home Sales: 5.05 million SAAR, 9.2 months of supply
• MBA: Total Delinquencies essentially unchanged in Q1 Seasonally Adjusted
• Philly Fed Survey shows "regional manufacturing activity grew slightly in May"
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 409,000, 4-Week average highest since November
• Existing Home Sales graphs

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2011 03:48:00 PM

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The red columns are for 2011.

Sales NSA are below the tax credit boosted level of sales in April 2010, but slightly above the level of March sales in 2008 and 2009.

The level of sales is elevated due to all the investor buying. The NAR noted:

All-cash transactions stood at 31 percent in April, down from a record level of 35 percent in March; they were 26 percent in March 2010; investors account for the bulk of cash purchases.
...
First-time buyers purchased 36 percent of homes in April, up from 33 percent in March; they were 49 percent in April 2010 when the tax credit was in place. Investors slipped to 20 percent in April from 22 percent of purchase activity in March; they were 15 percent in April 2010. The balance of sales was to repeat buyers, which were 44 percent in April.

Another survey, the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey "showed the proportion of first-time homebuyers in the housing market fell to 35.7% in April compared to 43.4% a year earlier.
...
[The] Distressed Property Index, a key measure of the health of the U.S. housing market, fell slightly to 47.7% in April, although sales of distressed properties continued to account for nearly half of the market."

This graph shows from Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance HousingPulse Tracking Survey shows both distressed sales and first time buyers. From the survey:

First-time homebuyers absorb housing supply, while move-up and move-down buyers produce no net take-up in inventory. When the supply of distressed properties exceeds the demand from first-time homebuyers, investors must step into the market to buy these properties, often at bargain-basement prices.

Investors accounted for 23.0% of the housing market in the month of April, up from 18.0% a year earlier, according to the HousingPulse Survey. A common business model for investors has been to buy damaged properties, renovate, and sell the properties to first-time homebuyers. But increasingly, investors are being forced to put renovated properties out as rental units as demand from first-time buyers drops.

Clearly investors are picking up the slack, and this has kept overall existing home sales elevated.

Update for clarity: The Campbell press release suggets some investors are being "forced" to rent because they can't flip. I've spoken with several cash buyer investors who have told me they are buying for cash flow (to rent, not flip), so the word "forced" is probably inaccurate in many cases (not that it makes any difference). These buyers are helping clear out the excess inventory - although many of these properties are probably future supply.

by Calculated Risk on 5/19/2011 01:58:00 PM

Catching up ... from the Philly Fed this morning: May 2011 Business Outlook Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from 18.5 in April to 3.9, its lowest reading since last October. [any reading above zero is expanion]. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, showed a similar slowing: The index fell 13 points while the shipments index declined 23 points; both remained positive, however, suggesting slight growth last month. For the first time in eight months, firms reported that unfilled orders and delivery times were falling — both indexes were slightly negative this month.

Firms’ responses continue to indicate overall improvement in the labor market despite weaker activity, orders, and shipments. The current employment index increased nearly 10 points and has now remained positive for eight consecutive months.

This indicates continued expansion in May, but at a sharply slower pace. This was well below the consensus of 20.0.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through May. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through April.

This early reading suggests the ISM index will be in the mid 50s in May.

Note: It is possible that this survey was impacted by supply chain disruption issues related to the earthquake in Japan - but I didn't see any mention of it. Interesting that this is the fifth highest employment index since the survey began in 1968.

Earlier:
• April Existing Home Sales: 5.05 million SAAR, 9.2 months of supply
• MBA: Total Delinquencies essentially unchanged in Q1 Seasonally Adjusted
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims declines to 409,000, 4-Week average highest since November
• Existing Home Sales graphs