by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2011 09:06:00 PM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Apr 22, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

Given the flurry of closings last week and the Easter weekend, it is probably safe to assume the FDIC will be on the sidelines this Friday. During the week, however, there were four removals and two additions, which leave the Unofficial Problem Bank List standing at 976 institutions with assets of $422.2 billion.

The FDIC terminated its action against CIT Bank, Salt Lake City, UT ($7.1 billion). The other removals were further intercompany consolidations by the multi-bank holding company Metropolitan Bank Group, Inc., first mentioned last week. This week Metropolitan Bank and Trust Company, Chicago, IL ($307 million); Chicago Community Bank, Chicago, IL ($276 million); and Community Bank of DuPage, Downers Grove, IL ($63 million) merged into the affiliated Metro Bank (f/k/a Citizens Community Bank Of Illinois), Berwyn, IL, which is also on the Unofficial Problem Bank List.

The new addition are Hopkins Federal Savings Bank, Baltimore, MD ($355 million) and TransPecos Banks, Pecos, TX ($157 million). Look for more activity next week as the FDIC should release its enforcement actions through March 2011 on April 29th.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2011 05:57:00 PM

From the LA Times: Gang of Six gives old-time politics a try

The six senators — three Democrats, three Republicans — working behind closed doors to deal with the nation's debt crisis have put aside the hyper-partisanship of today's Washington and are engaging in the give-and-take necessary to craft an agreement.
...
For now, the group's deliberations are largely secret. But its proposals are expected to include changes in the government's most costly programs — defense, the healthcare safety net and Social Security — as well as the closure of tax loopholes.

I do not want to prejudge the result of these meetings, however I've outlined my suggestions on how to approach the deficit issue.

I'd be happy if the "Gang of Six" just offered a proposal on how to close the structural general fund deficit ex-healthcare. That would be an important first step ... and I think should be THE first step.

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2011 01:55:00 PM

From Jason Lloren at the San Francisco Chronicle: Silicon Valley CEOs see hiring surge continuing

In a survey of 175 chief executives, 66 percent said their companies added jobs in 2010 - twice the number of those polled the previous two years. That was also the highest percentage since the annual Business Climate survey began eight years ago
...
Fifty-five percent of the CEOs polled anticipate job growth in the region to be better in 2011. Only 5 percent expect it to be worse.

That is good news.

For fun, here is a video from the Richter Scales a few years ago "Here Comes Another Bubble v1.1".

Wow - it seems out of date now. Making fun of Facebook at a valuation of $15 billion? Goldman invested at a $50 billion valuation earlier this year. And house prices have fallen too ...

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2011 09:29:00 AM

From Reuters: Toyota: Output to Return to Normal in November or December

Toyota Motor said it expects its production to make a full recovery by November or December ... Toyota and other Japanese automakers have been hit hard by a supply disruption of mostly electronic and resin-based parts made in Japan's northeast

Several tech companies have said supply chain issues will impact Q2. As an example, from the Western Digital conference call this week:

[T]here is uncertainty around the ability of our customers and the HDD industry to fully satisfy this demand due to Supply Chain challenges ... we believe that we'll be supply constrained in both June quarter and in the September quarter. We think that in the December quarter, it will be, we'll be able to supply pretty much what the industry, what the customers demand so we think that the comfort level as far as inventory in the pipeline will not be able to be reached again until this quarter next year, the March quarter of next year

This will be an issue most of the year, although most of the impact for the U.S. in Q2 and a little in Q3. I've seen estimates that supply issues will be a drag on U.S. GDP growth of about 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in Q2 and probably less in Q3.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2011 11:13:00 PM

This was amusing. Greece is probing an email discussion of a possible default. The Financial Times has the Citi email sent on Wednesday: Greece probes market talk of debt restructuring

“Over the last 20min, there seems to be some increased noise over [Greek] debt restructuring as early as this Easter weekend. Spreads are moving wider now with 2-year spread +100 from +35 mid-day, while [Greek] banks are at -4%, i6% vs +2% in the morning.

“The last few days the talks over [Greek] restructuring/rescheduling have intensified, despite the ongoing denials by [Greek] and foreign officials.

“If a credit event takes place it is crucial to see what the terms would be as a haircut would have a much different outcome vs an extension of maturities.”

Geesh - that seems like pretty normal speculation!

The yield on Greece ten year bonds increased to 14.9% today and the two year yield is up to 23%. Sounds like a credit event might happen soon. If so, I wonder if it will be haircut or an extension of maturities?

Here are the ten year yields for Ireland up to a record 10.5%, Portugal up to a record 9.5%, and Spain at 5.5%.

by Calculated Risk on 4/21/2011 06:12:00 PM

When the Philly Fed business outlook report was released this morning, I made several points:
• The index showed slower expansion in April than in March.
• This was below expectations, but ...
• This index showed decent growth in April, and this suggests the ISM index will be in the low 60s for April.

Several readers have sent me other reports arguing the Philly Fed report suggests, well, the end of the world or something. That is wrong.

First, the Philly Fed index is noisy month-to-month.

Second, the reading of 18.5 is above the median during expansions for the last 40 years. The median during expansions is 14.

Third, the reading in March was the highest since January 1984 - and a decline was expected (although this reading was below expectations).

Here is a long term graph of the index:

Click on graph for larger image.

Obviously this index is noisy, and this is just one month. Still a reading of 18.5 shows decent expansion, not the end of the world as we know it.

Because this index is noisy, I average it with the NY Fed (Empire state) each month. Remember the NY Fed index showed faster expansion in April, and was at the highest level in a year.

Then I average both the Philly Fed and NY Fed indexes with several other regional surveys - and that helps predict the ISM manufacturing index.

This graph compares the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through April. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through March.

And what does a 60 reading for the ISM mean? Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index:

The dashed line is for the March ISM PMI of 61.2% (very strong).

Clearly a reading in the low 60s (or even high 50s) shows pretty decent expansion for manufacturing.

One reader told me he was surprised by the negativity. He wrote: "We're finally seeing signs of real growth here. Kinda sad in a way. I was getting comfortable coming in late and still finding a parking spot close to the door." Too bad - my guess he is going to have to get in a little earlier, or walk a little further!