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Friday, April 22, 2011

Supply Chain Disruption Update

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2011 09:29:00 AM

From Reuters: Toyota: Output to Return to Normal in November or December

Toyota Motor said it expects its production to make a full recovery by November or December ... Toyota and other Japanese automakers have been hit hard by a supply disruption of mostly electronic and resin-based parts made in Japan's northeast
Several tech companies have said supply chain issues will impact Q2. As an example, from the Western Digital conference call this week:
[T]here is uncertainty around the ability of our customers and the HDD industry to fully satisfy this demand due to Supply Chain challenges ... we believe that we'll be supply constrained in both June quarter and in the September quarter. We think that in the December quarter, it will be, we'll be able to supply pretty much what the industry, what the customers demand so we think that the comfort level as far as inventory in the pipeline will not be able to be reached again until this quarter next year, the March quarter of next year
This will be an issue most of the year, although most of the impact for the U.S. in Q2 and a little in Q3. I've seen estimates that supply issues will be a drag on U.S. GDP growth of about 0.25 to 0.5 percentage points in Q2 and probably less in Q3.